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How to calculate seasonal index Pick time period (number of years) Pick season period (month, quarter) Calculate average price for season Calculate average.

Published byLoren Maxwell Modified over 9 years ago

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Presentation on theme: "How to calculate seasonal index Pick time period (number of years) Pick season period (month, quarter) Calculate average price for season Calculate average."— Presentation transcript:

1 How to calculate seasonal index Pick time period (number of years) Pick season period (month, quarter) Calculate average price for season Calculate average price over time Divide season average by over time average price x 100

2 Sioux Falls Cull Cow Prices JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecAnnual 200041.7041.1942.3846.4048.2547.6347.5043.5041.7038.1839.0041.5543.25 200141.5643.7545.1546.2547.7549.2047.6347.3845.4542.8737.5038.3744.41 200239.1041.8844.0642.8842.4541.5037.6737.5037.8835.8035.3835.8339.33 200339.2040.2542.5045.1347.7546.0649.9649.1350.5048.8551.8349.6746.74 200447.1046.0049.8853.4056.3860.0059.5059.7558.0054.7555.5052.5054.40 200554.2555.2560.3061.2562.7561.5058.2554.9055.6352.7550.9052.1356.66 200647.1349.7549.8047.6347.8047.9447.7549.8550.2548.3143.0641.5047.56 200748.5052.6352.0052.1355.5054.2554.0855.2552.8853.2046.2548.7552.12 200850.0055.9455.6954.4059.3858.1363.3563.0059.0053.6044.7541.7554.92 200945.6346.7546.8849.3353.1745.8848.6347.0646.9044.9443.0845.8347.01 Average45.4247.3448.8649.8852.1251.2151.4350.7349.8247.3344.7344.7948.64 Mon/Yr93971001031071051061041029792 100

3 Using Seasonal Index to Forecast Observe price in time t 1 P 1 Forecast price in time t 2 P 2 Start with P 1 / I 1 = P 2 / I 2 Then P 1 x I 2 / I 1 = P 2 Assume that cows are selling at $50/cwt in November. What is the forecast of February?

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