1. The Dutch Pension System Chris Driessen FNV London, January 21, 2015

2. 1th pillar (pay-as-you-go) 2th pillar (funded) Premium 9% gross wages15% gross wages Assets --135% GDP Coverage 100% population90% employees Benefit equal: € 9.500 (single) Wage related: € 10.000 (on average) Some basic statistics

3. Dutch pension incomeAverage 5 big EU MS 2 Second pillar extremely large in EU perspective

4. Compulsory participation –social partners at industry level can request the government tot extend the negotiated pension scheme to all employers in the industry Solidarity between generations Governance –about 350 pension funds –about 80 Industry wide and more than 250 compagny funds –governed by social partners Important features second pillar

5. Adequacy:relative high replacement rates and relative low poverty rate elderly Diversification: –better able to cope with demographic shocks –...but vulnerable to financial market shocks 2th (and 3th) pillar forward looking: –longevity manifests itself as current challenge Outcomes

6. Rising life expectancy Falling return on government bonds Financial crisis Challenges Ageing of population 1 23 Decrease in interest rate means increase in pensioen liabilities

7. Falling funding ratio 2th pillar % minimum funding requirement

8. Dramatic fall in interest rate have boosted pension liabilities...

9. Short term Loans Bonds Equity Real estate...and forced funds to seek a more risky asset mix... To avoid the risk of a pure nominal pension.

10. ...with higher but volatile return

11. Can premium absorb risk? Premium already at high level Premium rise ineffective: pension liabilities dwarf wage earnings

12. "In a mature funded pension system against the background of the current macro-economic environment, employers nor financial markets are able to provide certainty for participants against reasonable costs" (that's why the IORP-directive with its focus on providing certainty is a mayor threat to the Dutch pension system and the Dutch economy) "The end of certainty"

13. The FNV wants  A good pension in relation to the last wage  With a affordable premium  With a risk sharing and collectivity  With a fare pension for all generations  With strong large funds and low costs

14. Problems in our pension contracts [1 ] The benefit side Nominal benefit guarantee with risk free discount rate Too large interest volatility [1% interest is 16% coverage degree] Makes indexation of pension rights impossible Nominal and indexation ambition are not longer compatible We need a new type of security in our risk sharing

15. Problems in our pension contract [2] The pension premium side Demography makes the premium weapon on the short term blunt Pension premium also too volatile in relation with the interest Pension premiums are very high [15-20% of the wage sum] Development in the direction of a stable premium on the long term Is a development in the direction of CDC

16. Pension system 1 23

17. Key questions  Which system gives the best results  Defined ambition or CDC with life cycle  We are now studying on this question  The Social Economic Council (unions, employers, independent members) will give an advice

18. Participants as group are owner of residual risk

19. 1950 2010 2040 Ageing: from 7 to 2 workers for each retiree

20. Longevity is rising... Life expectancy at age 65

21. ...at a faster rate than expected women men forecast 2004 forecast 2010 Life expectancy at 65

22. On the one hand: more risky asset mix necesarry to finance liabilities On the other hand: lower risk absorbing capacity "Second pillar blues"

23. Recent reform

24. Reform Higher pension age In small steps from 65 in 2012 to 67 in 2021 Beyond 2021: tied to growth life expectancy Higher pension age 1 23 Lower acrual rate (Lower tax subsidy) communication about risk Smoothing of shocks More explicit steering rules New Prudency rules Benefit cuts

25. Original proposal 2009 –first step to 66 in 2020 –second step to 67 in 2025 Agreement with social partners june 2010 –retirement age tied to life-expectancy Government agreement 2012 (codified in law) –start 2013 with 1 month –in progressively small steps –to 67 in 2021 –retirement age tied to life expectancy Retirement age: proces of reform

26. Specific scheme for low income people who were already retired on 1th of january 2013 (to bridge the gap) Incentive scheme for low-income workers between 61 and 65 to work longer (which enables them to retire at 65,5) Additional measures

27. Start crisis: oktober 2008 Recovery plans: april 2009 Report reform committees: january 2010 Agreement with social partners: juni 2010 2th agreement with social partners: juni 2011 Strategic report: may 2012 Concept proposal: summer 2013 New pension act: january 2015 Second pillar: proces of reform

28. Stick to current rules to protect pensions of future generations (restoring funding ratio) –no indexation –pension cuts (on average 2%) Higher pension age (in line with 1th pillar) Lower accrual rates New prudency rules –Better communication about risk –Better smoothing mechanisms –Explicit steering rules Reform second pillar: dealing with increasing costs and risk

29. Thank you for your attention!