Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

ISPI Energy Watch Energy security and the Visegrad countries Università degli Studi di Bologna – Sede di Forlì 28 th May 2015 Matteo Verda Istituto per.

Published byDebra Flowers Modified over 9 years ago

Similar presentations

Presentation on theme: "ISPI Energy Watch Energy security and the Visegrad countries Università degli Studi di Bologna – Sede di Forlì 28 th May 2015 Matteo Verda Istituto per."— Presentation transcript:

1 ISPI Energy Watch Energy security and the Visegrad countries Università degli Studi di Bologna – Sede di Forlì 28 th May 2015 Matteo Verda Istituto per gli Studi di Politica Internazionale - Milano

2 ISPI Energy Watch G LOBAL CONTEXT

3 ISPI Energy Watch Mtoe G LOBAL CONTEXT : ENERGY CONSUMPTION Source: elaboration on IEA.

4 ISPI Energy Watch Mtoe Source: elaboration on IEA. G LOBAL CONTEXT : ENERGY MIX

5 ISPI Energy Watch I NTRO / E NERGY SOURCES S OURCE PROCONTRA coal - availability - costs - local emissions - GHG emissions oil - calorific value - existing stock of technology - costs - GHG emissions - concentration of reserves natural gas - costs - GHG emissions - concentration of reserves nuclear - reliability of supply - GHG emissions - duality - investment costs - dismantling costs - social issues renewables - reliability of supply - GHG emissions - costs - discontinuity of supply

6 ISPI Energy Watch E UROPEAN CONTEXT

7 ISPI Energy Watch V ISEGRAD COUNTRIES

8 ISPI Energy Watch E NERGY CONSUMPTION 2013 – Source: elaboration on Eurostat [nrg_100a].

9 ISPI Energy Watch E NERGY CONSUMPTION 2013 – Source: elaboration on Eurostat [nrg_100a].

10 ISPI Energy Watch E NERGY CONSUMPTION : TRENDS Source: elaboration on Eurostat [nrg_100a].

11 ISPI Energy Watch E NERGY INTENSITY Source: elaboration on Eurostat [nrg_100a] and World Bank online (World Development Indicators).

12 ISPI Energy Watch I MPORT DEPENDENCE Source: elaboration on Eurostat [nrg_100a].

13 ISPI Energy Watch E NERGY MIX 2013. RES include waste – Source: elaboration on Eurostat [nrg_100a].

14 ISPI Energy Watch E NERGY MIX AND IMPORT DEPENDENCE IN THE V ISEGRAD COUNTRIES

15 ISPI Energy Watch P OLAND : ENERGY MIX Source: elaboration on Eurostat [nrg_100a].

16 ISPI Energy Watch P OLAND : STRUCTURE OF ENERGY DEPENDENCE 2013 – Source: elaboration on Eurostat [nrg_100a]. Overall dependence: 28% Mtoe

17 ISPI Energy Watch P OLAND : NET IMPORTS 2013 – Source: elaboration on Eurostat [DS-018995]. GDP:526 bn€Total imports:166 bn €

18 ISPI Energy Watch C ZECH R EPUBLIC : ENERGY MIX Source: elaboration on Eurostat [nrg_100a].

19 ISPI Energy Watch C ZECH R EPUBLIC : STRUCTURE OF ENERGY DEPENDENCE 2013 – Source: elaboration on Eurostat [nrg_100a]. Overall dependence: 26% Mtoe

20 ISPI Energy Watch C ZECH R EPUBLIC : NET IMPORTS 2013 – Source: elaboration on Eurostat [DS-018995]. GDP:209 bn€Total imports:115 bn €

21 ISPI Energy Watch H UNGARY : THE ENERGY MIX Source: elaboration on Eurostat [nrg_100a].

22 ISPI Energy Watch H UNGARY : STRUCTURE OF ENERGY DEPENDENCE 2013 – Source: elaboration on Eurostat [nrg_100a]. Overall dependence:55% Mtoe

23 ISPI Energy Watch H UNGARY : NET IMPORTS 2013 – Source: elaboration on Eurostat [DS-018995]. GDP:133 bn€Total imports:79 bn €

24 ISPI Energy Watch S LOVAK R EPUBLIC : THE ENERGY MIX Source: elaboration on Eurostat [nrg_100a].

25 ISPI Energy Watch S LOVAK R EPUBLIC : STRUCTURE OF ENERGY DEPENDENCE 2013 – Source: elaboration on Eurostat [nrg_100a]. Overall dependence: 63% Mtoe

26 ISPI Energy Watch S LOVAK R EPUBLIC : NET IMPORTS 2013 – Source: elaboration on Eurostat [nrg_100a]. GDP:98 bn€Total imports:62 bn €

27 ISPI Energy Watch N ATURAL GAS MARKETS IN THE V ISEGRAD COUNTRIES

28 ISPI Energy Watch N ATURAL GAS CONSUMPTION 2013 – Source: elaboration on JODI Gas. Bcm EU total consumption: 463 Bcm

29 ISPI Energy Watch

30 EU: ENERGY MIX AND NATURAL GAS SUPPLY 2013 – Source: elaboration on Eurostat [nrg_100a] and Eurogas (Statistical Report 2014). energy mixnatural gas supply

31 ISPI Energy Watch N ATURAL GAS : IMPORT ROUTE DIVERSIFICATION Source: ENTSOG.

32 ISPI Energy Watch

33 P OLAND : NATURAL GAS SUPPLY 2013 – Source: elaboration on Eurostat [nrg_100a] and Eurogas (Statistical Report 2014). energy mixnatural gas supply

34 ISPI Energy Watch C ZECH R EPUBLIC : NATURAL GAS SUPPLY 2013 – Source: elaboration on Eurostat [nrg_100a] and Eurogas (Statistical Report 2014). energy mix natural gas supply

35 ISPI Energy Watch H UNGARY : NATURAL GAS SUPPLY 2013 – Source: elaboration on Eurostat [nrg_100a] and Eurogas (Statistical Report 2014). energy mixnatural gas supply

36 ISPI Energy Watch S LOVAK R EPUBLIC : NATURAL GAS SUPPLY 2013 – Source: elaboration on Eurostat [nrg_100a] and Eurogas (Statistical Report 2014). energy mixnatural gas supply

37 ISPI Energy Watch

38 R USSIAN NATURAL GAS SUPPLIES TO E UROPE

39 ISPI Energy Watch

40

41

42 Entry point daily maxyearly max (Mmc)(Bmc) Ukrainian system 452148 Slovakia 28192 Romania 10334 Hungary 5518 Poland 124 Nord StreamGermany 16053 Yamal-EuropePoland 10234 Blue StreamTurkey 4916 otherFinland, Baltics 7224 total 835274 N ATURAL GAS : R USSIAN EXPORT INFRASTRUCTURE 2014. Yearly max based on a 90% utilisation factor – Source: elaboration on ENTSOG.

43 ISPI Energy Watch Gazprom Export Ukraine transit Ukraine transit transit /total 201220132012201320122013 Italy14,324,114,324,1100% Germany31,538,220,011,163%29% Cezch Rep.6,97,06,97,0100% Hungary5,05,75,05,7100% Slovak Rep.4,05,14,05,1100% Austria5,0 100% France7,67,82,93,038%39% Bulgaria2,42,62,42,6100% Greece2,42,52,42,5100% Romania2,11,12,11,1100% Slovenia0,5 100% other EU23,026,90,0 -- tot. EU104,7126,565,567,762%54% Turkey25,725,313,312,452%49% other Europe1,31,71,31,7100% tot. Europe131,7153,580,181,861%53% N ATURAL GAS : R USSIAN CUSTOMERS IN E UROPE Billiion cubic meters – Source: elaboration on GazpromExport, Eurostat, Eurogas, BP and Pirani (2014).

44 ISPI Energy Watch N ATURAL GAS : EU DEMAND DECLINE Bcm Source: elaboration on European Commission.

45 ISPI Energy Watch

46 2014 – Source: UNCTAD, FT, IMF, BBC, EBRD. N ATURAL GAS : DEPENDENCE ON ENERGY PRODUCTION

47 ISPI Energy Watch R ENEWABLE E NERGY S OURCES, EU TARGETS AND THE V ISEGRAD C OUNTRIES

48 ISPI Energy Watch currenttargetdelta in p.p. EU14,1%20,0%5,9 Germany 12,4%18,0% 5,6 Italy 13,5%17,0% 3,5 Poland 11,0%15,0% 4,0 Slovak Rep. 10,4%14,0% 3,6 Czech Rep. 11,2%13,0% 1,8 Hungary 9,6%13,0% 3,4 R ENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES TARGETS AT 2020 2012 – Source: Eurostat [nrg_ind_335a].

49 ISPI Energy Watch Source: elaboration on IEA. GHG EMISSIONS : EXPECTED TRENDS Mt CO 2

50 ISPI Energy Watch GHG EMISSIONS : COP-21 COMMITMENTS EU: 40% emission reduction commitment by 2030 compared to 1990. China: peak of emissions in 2030, wihtout any quantitative commitment. USA: 26-28% emission reduction commitment by 2025 compared to 2005. India: no commitment on emissions; perspective increase of taxation on coal. Russia: 25-30% emission reduction commitment by 2030 compared to 1990. Japan: 20% emission reduction commitment by 2030 compared to 2005.

51 ISPI Energy Watch Source: elaboration on IEA. GHG EMISSIONS / EU AND THE REST OF THE W ORLD

52 ISPI Energy Watch Source: elaboration on IEA. GHG EMISSIONS / EU AND THE REST OF THE W ORLD Mt CO 2

53 ISPI Energy Watch

54 Matteo Verda Istituto per gli Studi di Politica Internazionale (ISPI) – Milano mail:matteo.verda@unipv.it blog:www.sicurezzaenergetica.it www.ispienergywatch.eu twitter:@matteoverda linkedin:Linkedin.com/in/matteoverda C ONTACTS

55 ISPI Energy Watch T HANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION

Download ppt "ISPI Energy Watch Energy security and the Visegrad countries Università degli Studi di Bologna – Sede di Forlì 28 th May 2015 Matteo Verda Istituto per."

Similar presentations

Share of population - GDP per capita (PPP), 2004 EU-15 and other West European countries Hungary Czech Republic Malta Slovenia Cyprus Portugal Greece Spain.

Share of population - GDP per capita (PPP), 2004 EU-15 and other West European countries Hungary Czech Republic Malta Slovenia Cyprus Portugal Greece Spain.
DG Energy and Transport, European Commission Fabrizio Barbaso 16/04/2008 EU ENERGY SECURITY STRATEGIES ARF Energy Security Seminar EUROPEAN COMMISSION.

DG Energy and Transport, European Commission Fabrizio Barbaso 16/04/2008 EU ENERGY SECURITY STRATEGIES ARF Energy Security Seminar EUROPEAN COMMISSION.
Russian Gas for Western Europe. Energy Security in a Changing International System Matteo Verda Università degli Studi di Pavia and Istituto per gli Studi.

Russian Gas for Western Europe. Energy Security in a Changing International System Matteo Verda Università degli Studi di Pavia and Istituto per gli Studi.
Fossil Future World Energy Consumption and the European Energy Security in the Next Twenty Years Guest Lecture Series of the School of International Studies.

Fossil Future World Energy Consumption and the European Energy Security in the Next Twenty Years Guest Lecture Series of the School of International Studies.
Analyses of World Supply of Natural Gas with DNE21+ Model.

Analyses of World Supply of Natural Gas with DNE21+ Model.
Prof. Dubiński Józef Central Mining Institute Katowice, POLAND

Prof. Dubiński Józef Central Mining Institute Katowice, POLAND
Energy security and Foreign Policy. Europe between WWII and the Beginning of the New Century Florence, 19 th March 2013 Matteo Verda Università degli Studi.

Energy security and Foreign Policy. Europe between WWII and the Beginning of the New Century Florence, 19 th March 2013 Matteo Verda Università degli Studi.
ROMANIA A Strategic Choice

ROMANIA A Strategic Choice
Directorate General for Energy and Transport European Commission Directorate General for Energy and Transport Progress in the Electricity and Gas Single.

Directorate General for Energy and Transport European Commission Directorate General for Energy and Transport Progress in the Electricity and Gas Single.
Global Economic and Energy Outlook International Aviation Fuel Conference and Exhibition Christof Ruehl, Chief Economist, BP p.l.c. Beijing, April 2012.

Global Economic and Energy Outlook International Aviation Fuel Conference and Exhibition Christof Ruehl, Chief Economist, BP p.l.c. Beijing, April 2012.
November 25, 2008 www.eegas.com 1 EC Second Strategic Energy Review: Low Export Scenario of Gazprom The European Commission has proposed a new energy package.

November 25, EC Second Strategic Energy Review: Low Export Scenario of Gazprom The European Commission has proposed a new energy package.
The future of European gas bne.eu. The Russian gas business.

The future of European gas bne.eu. The Russian gas business.
Chinese Coal & US-China Coal Trade Kevin Jianjun Tu, Senior Associate Carnegie Endowment for International Peace The Energy Bar Association & Asian Americans.

Chinese Coal & US-China Coal Trade Kevin Jianjun Tu, Senior Associate Carnegie Endowment for International Peace The Energy Bar Association & Asian Americans.
Elena Telegina Director of the Institute of Geopolitics and Energy Security Corresponding Member of Russian Academy of Sciences Dean, International Energy.

Elena Telegina Director of the Institute of Geopolitics and Energy Security Corresponding Member of Russian Academy of Sciences Dean, International Energy.
The Energy Crisis: a global perspective Dave Feickert, TUC Energy Adviser Rotherham Town Hall 27October 2006 G8 Primary energy balance 2003 EU members.

The Energy Crisis: a global perspective Dave Feickert, TUC Energy Adviser Rotherham Town Hall 27October 2006 G8 Primary energy balance 2003 EU members.
World Energy Outlook Key Challenges Ahead of us Energy Risk Europe 2006 3 October 2006, London International Energy Agency © OECD/IEA (2006)

World Energy Outlook Key Challenges Ahead of us Energy Risk Europe October 2006, London International Energy Agency © OECD/IEA (2006)
AGORA-Kyiv “Hot Spot – Energy Security”. ipwg(at)aegee.org.

AGORA-Kyiv “Hot Spot – Energy Security”. ipwg(at)aegee.org.
ITALIA E RUSSIA – FORO DI DIALOGO Vekselberg V. Marzo 2007.

ITALIA E RUSSIA – FORO DI DIALOGO Vekselberg V. Marzo 2007.
ISPI Energy Watch Geopolitics of energy Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna, Pisa – 24 April 2015 Matteo Verda Istituto per gli Studi di Politica Internazionale.

ISPI Energy Watch Geopolitics of energy Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna, Pisa – 24 April 2015 Matteo Verda Istituto per gli Studi di Politica Internazionale.
Russia, Ukraine and the European Energy Security Matteo Verda Istituto per gli Studi di Politica Internazionale - Milano Università degli Studi di Bologna.

Russia, Ukraine and the European Energy Security Matteo Verda Istituto per gli Studi di Politica Internazionale - Milano Università degli Studi di Bologna.

Similar presentations

Ads by Google