1. UKIP’s Effect on this election Eric Kaufmann @epkaufm

2. Quick Note on Method UKIP to zero, or to half current strength Distribute UKIP votes using converter derived from 19 Ashcroft polls of UKIPpers’ recalled 2010 vote (N=1500) AND 3 waves of BES 2015 Internet Panel (N=12,000) Apply conversion to 130 Marginal seats’ Ashcroft constituency polls Add Rochester and Clacton See how many of the 130 flip to the Tories

4. Vote UKIP, Get Miliband? UKIP’s existence costs the Tories 15 marginal seats If UKIP disappeared, Conservatives+Lib Dems would be up 11, Labour down 11 The total would go from 330-314 for Left Coalition (Lab-SNP-Other) to 325-319 for Tory-Lib-DUP coalition

5. If UKIP’s Vote Share Halves, will this save Dave? I assume UKIP on 14%

6. Based on Guardian forecast. End Result: Left Coalition wins 326-318

7. Based on Ladbrokes forecast. End Result: Right Coalition wins 325- 319. These polls already assume some UKIP leakage so UKIP must lose OVER half their vote for Tory-Lib Dem to win.

9. Labour-SNP Win, Rise of English Nationalism Right sees demise of seat-rich partner (Lib Dems), rise of seat-poor (UKIP) Right+Center could have ~60% of vote yet be out of power for several elections Risk of even sharper English nationalist populism (anti-EU, anti-Scotland, anti-immigration)