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Structural Transformation and Manufacturing Opportunities Nobuya Haraguchi 20 February 2015 1
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Outline Structural change and role of manufacturing in the economy Structural change within manufacturing and opportunities for low and high income countries Global production network 2
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3 Rodrik, 2014Ghani and O’Connell, 2014
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7 (86 countries) Source: UNIDO
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8 Developing countries have had higher growth in manufacturing than in GDP for 31 years out of 43 years.
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9 Value added share Source: UNIDO
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10 Value added share Source: UNIDO
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11 Value added share Source: UNIDO
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Low income countries 12
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13 Patterns of Manufacturing Development Source: UNIDO
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Change in value added per capita by income, low- and lower-middle incomes
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Food and beverage Textiles Chemical Electrical machinery and apparatus Motor vehicles Fabricated metals Basic metals Wearing apparel Rubber and plastics Machinery and equipment Employment Source: Estimated based on UNIDO INDSTAT2
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Food and tobacco Textiles and leather Energy intensity of Manufacturing Industries Tonns of oil equivalent / US$ 1,000 MVA Metals Non-metallic minerals
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Textiles Wearing Apparel Coke and Petro Machinery and Equip. Electrical Mach. and Equip.Motor Vehicles.
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18 Wearing apparel Changes in value added and labour productivity Textiles $9,000 $18,000 $10,000 $14,500
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$13,000 $17,000 Basic metals Electrical Machinery and Apparatus $35,000 Changes in value added and labour productivity
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High income countries 20
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Start growing slower than the economy-wide average (Large countries) Source: UNIDO
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Food and beverage Textiles Chemical Electrical machinery and apparatus Motor vehicles Fabricated metals Basic metals Wearing apparel Rubber and plastics Machinery and equipment Employment Source: Estimated based on UNIDO INDSTAT2
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Source: Own elaboration based on WIOD
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25 Source: Own elaboration based on WIOD
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26 Manufacturing-related employment in Germany (in 1,000) Source: Own elaboration based on WIOD
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N.A. 91% W.E. 91% E.A. 88% Final outputs Textiles and Wearing Apparel, 1990 Total of the three regions 72% +S. America and S.E. Asia 84% 2.5% 1.9% 3.6% 4.1% 3.4% 2.0% 90% 81%
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E.A. 86% W.E. 83% N.A. 84% Total of the three regions 68% +S. America and S.E. Asia 86% Final outputs Textiles and Wearing Apparel, 2011 81% 88% 4.4% 5.4% 2.1% 4.8% 2.2% 4.6%
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Total of the three regions 84% Final outputs Electrical and Machinery, 1990 N.A. 91% W.E. 91% 3.3% 3.9% 2.9% 3.9% 3.2%
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Total of the three regions 80% Final outputs Electrical and Machinery, 2011 N.A. 84% W.E. 85% 5.8% 5.4% 3.2% 5.1% 3.2% 5.8%
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Total of the three regions 68% + S.E. Asia 78% Value Added Textiles and Wearing Apparel, 2011 73% 70% 51% 79% 14% 11% 28% 90% 83% 79%
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Total of the three regions 77% Value Added Electrical and machinery, 2011 N.A. 93% W.E. 80% E.A. 77% 72% 67% 57% 77% 11% 14% 17% 25% 88% 84% 81%
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Total of the three regions 81% Value Added Transport equipment, 2011 N.A. 93% W.E. 80% E.A. 77% 38% 64% 69% 72% 11% 10% 39% 10% 13% 16% 10% 74% 93% 80% 11%
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Textiles and wearing apparel
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Electrical and machinery
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Transport equipment
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