1. Three Technologies That Will Change The World Barrie Kirk, P.Eng. Executive Director, Canadian Automated Vehicles Centre of Excellence Presentation to ACT Canada’s Sustainable Mobility Summit December 3, 2014

2. ACT Canada’s Sustainable Mobility Summit; Dec 3, 2014 2

3. 3

4. Agenda Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) Connected Vehicles (CVs) Electric Vehicles (EVs) Benefits, synergies and issues ACT Canada’s Sustainable Mobility Summit; Dec 3, 20144

5. Agenda Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) Connected Vehicles (CVs) Electric Vehicles (EVs) Benefits, synergies and issues ACT Canada’s Sustainable Mobility Summit; Dec 3, 20145

6. First Generation of AVs are here Semi-autonomous cars: Infiniti Q50, Mercedes S-Class –Intelligent cruise control (acceleration and braking) –Lane-keeping –Automatic parking –Pedestrian avoidance / automatic braking ACT Canada’s Sustainable Mobility Summit; Dec 3, 20146

7. 7 Suncor: Automated Dump Truck ACT Canada’s Sustainable Mobility Summit; Dec 3, 2014

8. 8 Induct Navia ACT Canada’s Sustainable Mobility Summit; Dec 3, 2014

9. Trial of fully-automated taxis planned for Milton Keynes, UK, in 2015 ACT Canada’s Sustainable Mobility Summit; Dec 3, 20149

10. AV Rollout Rollout will be evolutionary; two versions Technology companies: Google, RDM, Induct –Low-speed, electric, fully-automated –Then add speed, highway capability, etc. Most major car manufacturers –Add Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) to familiar models –Intelligent cruise control (acceleration and braking), lane-keeping, pedestrian avoidance, auto parking –Then evolve to full automation ACT Canada’s Sustainable Mobility Summit; Dec 3, 201410

11. AV Rollout (cont’d) 2014: first generation AVs 2018-2019: first commercial fully- autonomous, highway-capable cars 2020-2030: major penetration of AVs in Canada, US and around the world ACT Canada’s Sustainable Mobility Summit; Dec 3, 201411

12. Agenda Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) Connected Vehicles (CVs) Electric Vehicles (EVs) Benefits, synergies and issues ACT Canada’s Sustainable Mobility Summit; Dec 3, 201412

13. Connected Vehicles Vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) Vehicle-to-roadside infrastructure (V2I) Vehicle-to-other systems/servers (V2X) –Mainly to the Internet ACT Canada’s Sustainable Mobility Summit; Dec 3, 201413

14. CV: Current Applications Infotainment: –Traffic, weather, restaurants, concierge service –Music, movies, games, social networking Vehicle remote access Vehicle health reports Usage Based Insurance (UBI) Fleet management for trucks ACT Canada’s Sustainable Mobility Summit; Dec 3, 201414

15. CV: Future Applications Safety / collision avoidance Fleet management for Transportation-as-a- Service (TaaS) Enhanced integration of smartphones into vehicles Updating car’s OS, driving software Scanning web for conditions on road ahead Road-trains / platooning ACT Canada’s Sustainable Mobility Summit; Dec 3, 201415

16. CV Technologies 3G, 4G, LTE mobile phone technology Wi-Fi, WiMAX Dedicated Short Range Communications (DSRC) at 5.9 GHz –Now being tested at Ann Arbor, MI By 2020: 5G mobile phone technology ACT Canada’s Sustainable Mobility Summit; Dec 3, 201416

17. Agenda Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) Connected Vehicles (CVs) Electric Vehicles (EVs) Benefits, synergies and issues ACT Canada’s Sustainable Mobility Summit; Dec 3, 201417

18. Electric Vehicles Many models of all-electric vehicles commercially available now –Nissan Leaf, Ford Focus Electric, Tesla, etc. ACT Canada’s Sustainable Mobility Summit; Dec 3, 201418

19. All-Electric Prototype AVs ACT Canada’s Sustainable Mobility Summit; Dec 3, 201419 Google RDM (UK)

20. AV + EV Prototypes Nissan has tested AV technology on an all-electric Nissan Leaf ACT Canada’s Sustainable Mobility Summit; Dec 3, 201420

21. EV Features ACT Canada’s Sustainable Mobility Summit; Dec 3, 201421 Energy efficient Zero emissions Great acceleration Less maintenance Range anxiety Recharge time Battery cost Battery size, weight

22. Agenda Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) Connected Vehicles (CVs) Electric Vehicles (EVs) Benefits, synergies and issues ACT Canada’s Sustainable Mobility Summit; Dec 3, 201422

23. ACT Canada’s Sustainable Mobility Summit; Dec 3, 201423 Automated Vehicles Connected Vehicles Electric Vehicles ACE Vehicles

24. Transportation-as-a-Service (TaaS) Fully-automated taxis –Replacement for car ownership, regular taxis, some transit, car rental –Call, pay via Smartphone “Personalized mass transit” Uses AV, CV, EV ACT Canada’s Sustainable Mobility Summit; Dec 3, 201424

25. TaaS (cont’d) Much safer: –No driver → 80+% reduction in collisions Reduced cost / fares: –No driver –Low energy costs –Low maintenance costs –Cost competitive with transit –Much lower cost than regular taxis Reduced car ownership (started!) ACT Canada’s Sustainable Mobility Summit; Dec 3, 201425

26. TaaS + Transit Reduced transit ridership Reduced need for park-and-rides Traditional transit best for: –High volume routes, rush hour TaaS best for –Low density, non-rush hour routes –Last mile Issues –Optimum mix of transportation modes –TaaS offered by transit companies or private sector? ACT Canada’s Sustainable Mobility Summit; Dec 3, 201426

27. TaaS + Urban Planning Substantially reduced need for parking Changes in where people live and work –More intensification and more sprawl Change in design of homes Reduced focus on Transit Oriented Development Less pollution + less parking spaces = greener cities AV-only zones ACT Canada’s Sustainable Mobility Summit; Dec 3, 201427

28. Impact of AVs on Government Government: all levels / most departments –Finance, economy and GDP –Transportation policies and regulations –Policies on industry, R&D –Urban planning –Health-care –Policing –Transit ACT Canada’s Sustainable Mobility Summit; Dec 3, 201428

29. Impacts of AVs on Private Sector Corporate business plans / employment: –Taxis –Trucking / delivery –Auto industry –Oil industry –Electricity generation and distribution –Technology industry ACT Canada’s Sustainable Mobility Summit; Dec 3, 201429

30. AVs: The Coming of the Next Disruptive Technology Report by Conference Board of Canada, CAVCOE and Van Horne Institute Scope: –Status and trends in AVs –Impact on economy, infrastructure, transportation costs Due out in December –Free! ACT Canada’s Sustainable Mobility Summit; Dec 3, 201430

31. Conclusions Our cities and our world will look very different in 2030 compared to today because of ACE vehicles Transportation-as-a-Service a key outcome Huge impact on transportation and transit ACT Canada’s Sustainable Mobility Summit; Dec 3, 201431

32. Recommendation All transportation / transit long range plans should incorporate impact of AVs CBoC CTI Nov 25, 201432

33. Questions? ACT Canada’s Sustainable Mobility Summit; Dec 3, 201433

34. Follow-up Barrie Kirk bkirk@cavcoe.com 613-271-1657 AV Update, a free monthly e-newsletter with news on AVs from around the world –To subscribe: business card with “Newsletter” www.cavcoe.com ACT Canada’s Sustainable Mobility Summit; Dec 3, 201434