1. "Why are Iran's nuclear technology efforts of critical concern to Israel's security?” Mike Natelson

2. Facts Uranium Enrichment Transmutation U238 -> Pu239 Fission bomb design Israel's geography

3. Speculation Iranian governance Israeli intelligence and defense capability

4. Uranium Isotopes Natural Uranium -- 0.7% U235, 99.3% U238 Power reactor enrichment -- 3.5- 5.5% U235 Fission bomb enrichment -- ~ 90% U235

5. Enrichment Methods Calutron (mass spectrometer) Gaseous Diffusion Centrifuge Cascade Separation of Isotopes by Laser Excitation (SILEX)

6. Feed Nf Take Out of Enriched Uranium Take Out of Depleted Uranium Product Np Tails Nt Separation of U235 and U238 Enrichment Method Effectiveness Separative Work Unit (SWO)

7. SWOs needed for various applications

8. Iranian Centrifuge Inventory NR-1 (.7-1 SWU/a) 9,000 operational 6,420 installed 15,420 total NR-2 (3.5-5 SWU/a) 1000 installed Ref. IAEA 10/14

9. Amount of highly enriched Uranium or Plutonium for a 20KT-yield Atomic (fission) bomb Hiroshima Bomb (little boy): – 64kgs 80%U235 Modern Uranium designs: – Low tech. 16kgs 90%U235 – High tech. 5kgs 90%U235 Modern Plutonium designs: – Low tech. 6kgs Pu239 – High tech. 3kgs Pu239 Ref. Nation Resources Defense Council 1995 paper by Cochran and Paine.

10. SWOs needed to provide: Yearly 3.6% enriched U for a 1000MWe Power Reactor, 150,000SWUs (e.g. Iran’s Bushelr PWR) One “low tech.” Fission (90% enriched U) bomb. 1119SWUs (starting with 3.6% enriched U)

11. Plutonium Creation

12. Hiroshima (fission) Bomb Richard Rhodes The making of the Atomic Bomb

13. Implosion Bomb Polonium- Beryllium Initiator Uranium 235 Conventional Explosives

14. Israel Area ~ New Jersey Population 7.8 million 76% Jews Jewish population centers Tel Aviv Haifa West Jerusalem

15. Speculation Iranian governance Israeli intelligence and defense capability

18. Iran’s Nuclear Objective(s)? Support electric power generation Provide security/deterrence Destroy Israel

19. Israel's Wars 1948 Independence 1956 Sinai Campaign 1967 Six Day War 1973 Yom Kippur War 1982 First Lebanon War 1987 First Intifada 2000 Second Intifada 2006 Second Lebanon War (Hezbollah) 2008, 2012 and 2014 Gaza (Hamas)