2. ACM 97 Computing Alternatives Joel Birnbaum Hewlett-Packard Senior VP R&D, Director, HP Labs

3. ACM 97 THE NEXT 50 YEARS OF COMPUTING

4. ACM 97 Copyright  1997 ACM, Association for Computing The files on this disk or server have been provided by ACM. Copyright and all rights therein are maintained by ACM. It is understood that all persons copying this information will adhere to the terms and constraints invoked by ACM’s copyright. These works may not be reposted without the explicit permission of ACM. Reuse and/or reposting for noncommercial classroom use is permitted. Questions regarding usage rights and permissions may be addressed to: permissions@acm.org THE NEXT 50 YEARS OF COMPUTING

5. ACM 97 James Burke Master of Ceremonies

6. ACM 97

10. JOEL BIRNBAUM

11. ACM 97

16. Computing Alternatives Joel Birnbaum Hewlett-Packard Senior VP R&D, Director, HP Labs

17. ACM 97

20. Quantum Computing DNA-based Computing Optical Computing Three Alternatives

21. ACM 97 ENIAC Circa 1947 Source: U.S. Army photo

22. ACM 97 ENIAC Vital Statistics Physical Characteristics 19,000 vacuum tubes, 1,500 relays 60,000 pounds, 16,200 cubic feet 174 kilowatts 5 kflops (~ same as Intel 4004) Future Prediction (1949 Popular Mechanics) 1,500 vacuum tubes 3,000 pounds 10 kilowatts

23. ACM 97

24. ENIAC Vital Statistics Physical Characteristics 19,000 vacuum tubes, 1,500 relays 60,000 pounds, 16,200 cubic feet 174 kilowatts 5 kflops (~ same as Intel 4004) Future Prediction (1949 Popular Mechanics) 1,500 vacuum tubes 3,000 pounds 10 kilowatts

25. ACM 97

27. Moore’s Law 19721976198019841988199219962000 10 3 10 4 10 5 10 6 10 7 10 8 10 9 Date Transistors per Chip 4004 8080 8086 80286 80386 80486 Pentium Pentium Pro 80786 20042008 ?

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29. Moore’s Law 19721976198019841988199219962000 10 3 10 4 10 5 10 6 10 7 10 8 10 9 Date Transistors per Chip 4004 8080 8086 80286 80386 80486 Pentium Pentium Pro 80786 20042008 ?

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31. Vanishing Electrons 1988 10 -1 Date Electrons per Device 19921996200020042008201220162020 10 0 10 1 10 2 10 3 10 4 16M 64M 256M 1G 4G 16G Transistors per Chip Source: Motorola ?

32. ACM 97

41. Quantum Dots: (Ge Islands on Si) Length (microns) 0.2 0.4 0.6 20 0 -20 Height (nm) 0.8 Average Height: 15nm Standard Dev.: <1nm Density: 6.4 x 10 9 /cm 2 Source: HP Labs Quantum Structures Research Initiative

42. ACM 97

43. Quantum Dots: (Ge Islands on Si) Length (microns) 0.2 0.4 0.6 20 0 -20 Height (nm) 0.8 Average Height: 15nm Standard Dev.: <1nm Density: 6.4 x 10 9 /cm 2 Source: HP Labs Quantum Structures Research Initiative

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45. Quantum Dots: (Ge Islands on Si) Length (microns) 0.2 0.4 0.6 20 0 -20 Height (nm) 0.8 Average Height: 15nm Standard Dev.: <1nm Density: 6.4 x 10 9 /cm 2 Source: HP Labs Quantum Structures Research Initiative

46. ACM 97

47. Computational Complexity Input Size L Execution Time Exp(L) LnLn L Exp NP P Efficiency of an algorithm depends on how its execution time grows as the size of the problem (input) increases... Source: Artur Ekert, Clarendon Laboratories, Oxford University

48. ACM 97

49. Difficulty in Factoring Number N of L decimal digits: N is of the order 10 L The trial division method: dividing N by 2,3,5... N 1/2 Number of divisions required: N 1/2 = 10 L/2 Grows Exponentially with L If a computer can perform 10 10 divisions per second, factoring a 100 decimal digit number with this method takes 10 40 seconds, much longer than the age of the universe (10 17 seconds) Source: Artur Ekert, Clarendon Laboratories, Oxford University

50. ACM 97

51. Difficulty in Factoring Number N of L decimal digits: N is of the order 10 L The trial division method: dividing N by 2,3,5... N 1/2 Number of divisions required: N 1/2 = 10 L/2 Grows Exponentially with L If a computer can perform 10 10 divisions per second, factoring a 100 decimal digit number with this method takes 10 40 seconds, much longer than the age of the universe (10 17 seconds) Source: Artur Ekert, Clarendon Laboratories, Oxford University

52. ACM 97

53. Difficulty in Factoring Number N of L decimal digits: N is of the order 10 L The trial division method: dividing N by 2,3,5... N 1/2 Number of divisions required: N 1/2 = 10 L/2 Grows Exponentially with L If a computer can perform 10 10 divisions per second, factoring a 100 decimal digit number with this method takes 10 40 seconds, much longer than the age of the universe (10 17 seconds) Source: Artur Ekert, Clarendon Laboratories, Oxford University

54. ACM 97

60. The Traveling Salesman Problem: To find the shortest path from start to end going through all the points only once. 0 3 4 1 6 5 2 Source: Dr. Leonard M. Adleman

61. ACM 97 Step 1: Generate random pathsRandomly ligate together pieces of DNA DNA Ligase 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 0 1 0112346 12345 234

62. ACM 97

63. Step 2: Keep only paths starting with 0 and ending with 6 Use the Polymerase Chain Reaction PCR 0-6 0112346 0113246 012345 1234 0264 014356

64. ACM 97 012346 Step 3: PAGE Keep only paths that enter exactly 7 vertices Separate the PCR products by PAGE 5 0123465 0246 0124565 0124565

65. ACM 97 Step 4: Affinity Purification 0123465 Keep only paths that enter all 7 vertices at least once Isolate DNA by sequential affinity purification 0123456 0124565

66. ACM 97

76. Hybrid Fourier Transform Processor Laser Collimating Lens Spatial Light Modulator Output Plane Digital To Computer Digital From Computer Creates a coherent, monochromatic light source Incoming light creates desired input object performs Fourier Transform Incoming light creates desired input object performs Fourier Transform Creates a coherent, monochromatic light source Optical System

77. ACM 97

78. Hybrid Fourier Transform Processor Laser Collimating Lens Spatial Light Modulator Output Plane Digital To Computer Digital From Computer Creates a coherent, monochromatic light source Incoming light creates desired input object performs Fourier Transform Incoming light creates desired input object performs Fourier Transform Creates a coherent, monochromatic light source Optical System

79. ACM 97

80. Hybrid Fourier Transform Processor Laser Collimating Lens Spatial Light Modulator Output Plane Digital To Computer Digital From Computer Creates a coherent, monochromatic light source Incoming light creates desired input object performs Fourier Transform Incoming light creates desired input object performs Fourier Transform Creates a coherent, monochromatic light source Optical System

81. ACM 97

84. The Future: Communicate with Photons, but Compute with Electrons

85. ACM 97

93. JOEL BIRNBAUM