1. Analyzing risks The Geopolitics of Land Degradation Caux July 1st 2014 Luc GNACADJA Caux Dialogue on Land & Security 2014

2. Biodiversity Risks & Threats in the 21st Century "Global biodiversity models project that terrestrial species extinctions, loss of natural habitat, and changes in the distribution and abundance of species, species groups and biomes will continue throughout this century, with land use change being the main threat in the short term, and climate change becoming progressively much more important over the next several decades.” Projections of 21st century change in biodiversity and associated ecosystem services Source: CBD, 2010)

3. Source: “Assessing Global Land Use: Balancing Consumption with Sustainable Supply” UNEP/IRP, 2014 Planetary Boundaries Expansion of global cropland till 2050: Overshoot safe operating space

4. Land use change has transformed the Biosphere Source: Jones (2011), from WBGU (2011) World Population trends 1950-2050 (Medium variant)

5. Global land use is a key indicator of global sustainability and must be assessed & monitored Source: Jones (2011), from WBGU (2011) World Population trends 1950-2050 (Medium variant) The world might need additional cropland the size of Brazil by 2050 The total additional land use demand in 2030 compare to land use in 2000 is 792 million ha in BAU scenario. (Source UNEP/IRP, 2014) Where will such expansion take place? Again over the remaining natural habitats while out there are more than 2 billion hectares of landscape that still hold potential for restoration?

6. Source: “Global Environmental Problems as a Risk to Security” German Advisory Council on Global Change, 2014 3 Conflicts Constellations Water Scarcity Loss of Land Food Insecurity 4 HotsSpots Sahel: Desertification & Drought Middle East: Hydrological Water Scarcity & Drought Central Asia: Hydrolog. Water Scarcity & Desertification South & South East Asia: Tropical Cyclones Hot spots of the security-related impacts of Climate Change and Desertification

7. Migration main trajectories Drought Desertification Water Scarcity are major push factors for environmentally- induced migration Migration Environment & Conflicts Source: German Advisory Council on Global Change ­ WBGU (2007)

8. Function change or Function trade off Forest Grassland 1. Undisturbed 2. Extensive 3. Intensive DEGRADATION Vs RESTORATION? It’s all about trade-offs From trade-offs in Ecosystem functions towards Total degradation Source: PBL 2009

9. Function change or Function trade off Degraded? Forest Grassland 1. Undisturbed 2. Extensive 3. Intensive 4... DEGRADATION Vs RESTORATION? It’s all about trade-offs

10. 10 2000 Potential Soil factor NPP Food Fiber Water Floods Climate Biodiversity 2050 Business as usual Future scenarios 0 Time 20102020 203020401990 Achieving a Land-Degradation Neutral World ( LDNW ) by 2030 Figure adapted from Ben Ten Brink, 2013 Prevention Restoration LDNW options LDNW by 2030 = Same amount of biologically & economically productive land including soil and its ecosystem services as in 2000 Ongoing cha nge Historical change Objectif: Operate Land use expansion on already degraded areas Priorities: 1.Prevent degradation 2.Restore degraded areas

11. Conclusion Quoting Aldo Leopold and Francis Bacon ‘We abuse land because we regard it as a commodity belonging to us. When we see land as a community to which we belong, we may begin to use it with love and respect.’ ‘We cannot command Nature except by obeying her.’ Thank you

12. OWG-12 Preliminary List of SDGs on June 16th 2014 Can’t see where CONSERVATION does’nt somehow qualify