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Climate, Fire and Air Quality Climate Impacts Group June 1, 2006.

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Presentation on theme: "Climate, Fire and Air Quality Climate Impacts Group June 1, 2006."— Presentation transcript:

1 Climate, Fire and Air Quality Climate Impacts Group June 1, 2006

2 Research Team USDA Forest Service USDA Forest Service Don McKenzie, Susan O’Neill, Sim Larkin Don McKenzie, Susan O’Neill, Sim Larkin WSU Laboratory for Atmospheric Research WSU Laboratory for Atmospheric Research Jack Chen, Brian Lamb, Jeremy Avise, Joe Vaughan Jack Chen, Brian Lamb, Jeremy Avise, Joe Vaughan University of Washington University of Washington Eric Salathe, Cliff Mass, Jeremy Littell, Robert Norheim Eric Salathe, Cliff Mass, Jeremy Littell, Robert Norheim National Center for Atmospheric Research National Center for Atmospheric Research Alex Guenther, Christine Wiedinmyer Alex Guenther, Christine Wiedinmyer

3 Goals and Funding Support USDA Forest Service HAZE Project USDA Forest Service HAZE Project Analyze impacts of Fire Emissions on Regional Haze at Class I Wilderness Areas in terms of a Changing Climate. Analyze impacts of Fire Emissions on Regional Haze at Class I Wilderness Areas in terms of a Changing Climate. EPA Science To Achieve Results (STAR) Project (Grant # RD83096201) EPA Science To Achieve Results (STAR) Project (Grant # RD83096201) Impact of Global Change on US and Northwest Air Quality, with particular emphasis on the role of fire, biogenic emissions, and Asian emissions. Impact of Global Change on US and Northwest Air Quality, with particular emphasis on the role of fire, biogenic emissions, and Asian emissions.

4 Class I Wilderness Areas

5 Visibility Degradation Fort Collins, CO Fort Collins, CO Bext = 70/Mm Bext = 70/Mm Occurred twice since 2000 Occurred twice since 2000 WinHaze v2.9.6 WinHaze v2.9.6

6 Modeling Domains Right: CMAQ domains at 36 and nested 12 km resolutions with 17 layers Left: PCM and MOZART2 global model domain at 2.8 o by 2.8 o resolution with 18 layers.

7 Modeling Approach Climate/MeteorologyEmissions Air Quality Model Visibility Particulate Matter Ozone Formation Wet & Dry Deposition

8 Modeling Approach PCM MM5 MCIP CMAQ SMOKE MOZART2 FSB (Fire) MEGAN (Biogenics) NEI/EDGAR (Anthropogenic) Global (IPCC A2) Regional Preprocess for IC/BC Climate/MeteorologyEmissions Air Quality

9 Modeling Approach Global Scale Parallel Climate Model (PCM) Parallel Climate Model (PCM) Simulations provided by NCAR Climate and Global Dynamics Division Simulations provided by NCAR Climate and Global Dynamics Division Model of Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers (MOZART) v2 with Aerosols Model of Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers (MOZART) v2 with Aerosols Simulations provided by Jean-Francois Lamarque (NCAR Atmospheric Chemistry Division) Simulations provided by Jean-Francois Lamarque (NCAR Atmospheric Chemistry Division) Provide IC/BC Provide IC/BC Asian transport impacts Asian transport impacts

10 Modeling Approach Global Scale IPCC SRES A2 Scenario – Business as Usual IPCC SRES A2 Scenario – Business as Usual worst projected emissions worst projected emissions heterogeneous world heterogeneous world regional self- reliance regional self- reliance large global population large global population

11 Modeling Approach PCM MM5 MCIP CMAQ SMOKE MOZART2 FSB (Fire) MEGAN (Biogenics) NEI/EDGAR (Anthropogenic) Global (IPCC A2) Regional Preprocess for IC/BC Climate/MeteorologyEmissions Air Quality

12 Modeling Approach Regional Scale Meteorology – MM5 Meteorology – MM5 Emissions Emissions Anthropogenic emissions from EDGAR (future) and 1999 NEI (current) Anthropogenic emissions from EDGAR (future) and 1999 NEI (current) Fire Emissions from historical db and Fire Scenario Builder (FSB). Fire Emissions from historical db and Fire Scenario Builder (FSB). Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN) Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN) Biogenic emissions, 1-km resolution, multi-scale Biogenic emissions, 1-km resolution, multi-scale Canopy scale model (vs. leaf level) Canopy scale model (vs. leaf level) Accounts for: light, leaf area index, solar angle, temperature, RH, wind speed, soil moisture. Accounts for: light, leaf area index, solar angle, temperature, RH, wind speed, soil moisture.

13 Fire Emissions Modeling Use heat released from the fire to calculate plume rise to allocate emissions vertically in the atmosphere. Use heat released from the fire to calculate plume rise to allocate emissions vertically in the atmosphere. A portion of the fire emissions are treated as smoldering emissions and allocated to the lowest model layer. A portion of the fire emissions are treated as smoldering emissions and allocated to the lowest model layer. MM5 Fire Scenario Builder BlueSky-EM FCCS EPM SMOKE CAPE NFDRS Fuel Moistures

14 FCCS 1-km GIS layer

15 PM2.5 Emissions from Fire 2045 - 20551990 - 1999

16 MEGAN: Biogenic Emissions Terpenes – Particulate Matter Formation Terpenes – Particulate Matter Formation Isoprene – Ozone Chemistry Isoprene – Ozone Chemistry

17 Modeling Approach Regional Scale MCIP MCIP SMOKE SMOKE Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system Ozone Ozone Primary emission and secondary formation of Aerosols Primary emission and secondary formation of Aerosols Visibility Visibility Gridded eulerian model Gridded eulerian model Wet and Dry Deposition Wet and Dry Deposition

18 Project Status & Details Simulations Simulations Current Climate 1990 – 1999 Current Climate 1990 – 1999 Future Climate 2045 – 2054 Future Climate 2045 – 2054 Computing Requirements Computing Requirements Two 20 node LINUX clusters available (WSU, FS) Two 20 node LINUX clusters available (WSU, FS) MM5: 2 TB per decade, 36 km domain MM5: 2 TB per decade, 36 km domain CMAQ: 1 TB per decade, 36 km domain CMAQ: 1 TB per decade, 36 km domain Status Status 36 km current climate done (MM5 and CMAQ) 36 km current climate done (MM5 and CMAQ) 36 km future climate – MM5 done, July only for CMAQ 36 km future climate – MM5 done, July only for CMAQ Incorporating FSB Fire Emission Inventory in to future climate case. Incorporating FSB Fire Emission Inventory in to future climate case. Starting MM5 12 km domain simulation (current and future) Starting MM5 12 km domain simulation (current and future)

19 MM5 2m Temperature Current and Future Decades

20 Boundary Condition Analysis

21 Current Decade Evaluation Surface Ozone Concentrations

22

23 Preliminary Results: Surface Level Ozone 8-hr Average of 10 July Months Current ClimateFuture Climate

24 Preliminary Results Hours/Month 8-hr O3 > 60 ppb

25 Thank you! -> Don Susan O’Neill susan.oneill@por.usda.gov

26 Current Decade Evaluation MM5 2m Temperature

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