1. CSE 322: Software Reliability Engineering Topics covered: Techniques for prediction

2. Introduction and motivation  Objective of a reliability model:  Predicted metrics:

3. Introduction and prediction  Model accuracy:  Issues specific to software:

4. Introduction and motivation  Short term vs. long term prediction:  Optimistic vs. pessimistic prediction:  Bias in model prediction:  Need to assess the accuracy of model predictions.

5. Predictive accuracy  How to assess predictive accuracy?

6. Predictive accuracy  Variability measure:

7. Predictive accuracy  Braun statistic:

8. Predictive accuracy  Compare the accuracy of the predictions obtained using a set of models.

9. Predictive accuracy  Model comparison

10. Predictive accuracy  Prequential Likelihood Ratio (PLR)

11. Predictive accuracy  Prequential Likelihood Ratio (PLR) of a set of models

12. Predictive accuracy  Asymptotic PLR