1. 1 Outlook for Asia-Pacific Oil Demand and Supply with A Special Emphasis on China* Dr. Kang Wu Senior Fellow East-West Center, Honolulu, Hawaii, USA Prepared for Workshop on “Feeding the Giant: The Domestic and Global Impact of China’s Energy Needs” Organized by Weatherhead East Asian Institute Columbia University, April 21, 2006 New York City, New York *Not for distribution and citation.

2. 2 Structure of Energy Use in the Asia Pacific

3. 3 Primary Commercial Energy Consumption by Source, 2004

4. 4 Primary Commercial Energy Production and Consumption in the Asia-Pacific Region (Excluding China and India), 2004

5. 5 Energy Security: Oil Is the Key

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9. 9 Oil Demand and Supply in Asia

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15. 15 The region relies heavily on supplies from the Middle East. The share of imports from the Middle East will actually be slightly higher if all Asian countries are accounted for.

16. 16 China’s Growing Energy Needs

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22. 22 China’s Oil Demand and Supply

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30. 30 Sources of Data BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2005, June 2005. EIA (Energy Information Administration), International Energy Outlook 2005, July 2005, Washington, D.C. FACTS Inc. Energy Database. IEA (International Energy Agency), Oil Market Report: A Monthly Oil and Stocks Assessment, various issues, Paris, France. China National Bureau of Statistics, Statistical Yearbook of China, 2005. Platt’s Price Database.