1. Climate Change Implications to the Sierra Nevada and the Central Valley Ryan Lucas Sierra Nevada Research Institute UC Merced rlucas@ucmerced.edu

2. Outline Greenhouse Effect Temperature Forecast Impacts –Water/Snowpack –Wildfire –Vegetation –Sea Level Summary

3. Greenhouse Effect Increased concentration of greenhouse gasses in the earth’s atmosphere CO 2 – burning of fossil fuels H 2 O – natural, increase from melting of ice N 2 O – manure breakdown CH 4 – landfills, manure breakdown

4. Incoming Solar Radiation Incoming Solar Radiation is absorbed by Earth’s surface. Surface emits long wave radiation to atmosphere A fraction of the long wave radiation escapes from the atmosphere; greenhouse gases absorb the remaining long wave radiation and emit long wave radiation in all directions. Increase of greenhouse gases results in more long wave radiation absorbed and re-emitted and warmer global surface temperatures. Greenhouse Effect

6. Source: Bales et al 2006

7. Source: Stewart et al 2005

8. Water Impacts Early onset of spring –Early stream flow –Loss of reservoir and groundwater storage –Loss of hydroelectric generated power Large winter storms produce rain –Loss of storage in snow pack –Induction of floods, rain on snow events Longer, drier summers –Crop and stock stresses

9. Wildfires Source: Westerling 2006

10. Source: Westerling et al 2006

11. Fire Impacts More frequent wildfires More intense/larger wildfires Decrease in Central Valley air quality Loss of vegetation Loss of wildlife habitat Release of CO 2 to atmosphere

12. Vegetation Source: Linehan et al 2006

13. Vegetation

14. Vegetation Impacts Potential migration of plant species Potential loss of plant species. Migration and/or loss of plant species may lead to migration and/or loss of animal species.

15. Sea Level Potential for 1-3 feet sea level rise by the end of the century (Hanak and Lund 2008) Alter salinity, depth, and flood potential in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta

16. Impacts to Sierra Nevada and the Central Valley Reduction in water supply –Major implications for agricultural and urban communities –Impacts to water cycle affects species habitats (i.e. early spring stream pulse effects in salmonid fish) –Reduced capacity for hydroelectric power production Decreased air quality –Major implications for public health sector Changes to “natural” habitats –Major implications on indigenous plant and animal species Sea level rise –major effects on Sacramento/San Joaquin Delta, plants and aquatic species

17. Thank You!