1. 1 Dr. Enrique Ortega Rodríguez Unicamp, Campinas, SP, Brazil E-mail: New Emergy indices for a Prosperous Way Down SIXTH BIENNIAL EMERGY RESEARCH CONFERENCE December 14-16, University of Florida, Gainesville, 2009 Version 17 (15/01/10)

2. 2 It is not Capitalism, because this kind of system is based on “continuous growth”, “unconscious consumption” and do not have ethical values. What’s a Prosperous Way Down (PWD)? It is a sustainable interaction between the human beings and the environment A PWD implies in: new social concerns and new commitments with nature (Biosphere and Ecosystems)

3. 3 1. To measure the world's renewable support capacity and to compare it with the increased support capacity obtained by using non-renewables. Prosperous Way Down 5 main challenges:

4. 4 2. To forecast the population reduction during capitalism decline considering the adjustment to scarce resources offered by degraded ecosystems and a damaged biosphere

5. 5 Time Change from anaerobic to aerobic atmosphere. Thermo regulated system - 10 000 Sustainable Development 0 - 4 billions years Biodiversity, C immobilization 150020002100 Transition Ecosystems recovery Human growth and other species depletion without the use of fossil fuel Industrial growth Fair population adjustment options Business as usual (more growth) Keep the system as it is now (without growth) Resilience and Sustainability recovery through a Prosperous Way Down homeostasis extinction Change of production- consumption model 3. To understand the human interaction with biosphere throughout history and study options for future: collapse

6. 6 Hunters and gatherers Agrarian Economy Industrial revolution Population explosion Global Information storm Environment Local available resources AgricultureIndustry Villages and cities Information Fuels and minerals The geographic space occupation has changed through human history Ecological rural communities (Eco-units) Eco-units are agro-ecological systems with: - renewable net energy to support lower size cities - recycling loops from the cities to farms - preserved areas of native vegetation - new social relationships - integrated production If the future could be based on a Prosperous Way Down Figure adapted from the book A Prosperous Way Down by H.T. Odum & E.C. Odum (2001)

7. 7 4. Understanding risks and proposing solutions. Water percolation, C sequester, Pollination, Biological control, Soil retention, Low temperature and biodiversity maintenance Heavy metals absorption, toxic chemicals transformation, C capture from petrochemicals A2A1A3

8. 8 5. Finally, to propose new models for ecological rural production systems

9. 9 Food production can be made in:  Agro-ecological systems based on local renewable resources and local markets;  Agro-chemical systems based on external non renewable resources and external markets.

10. 10 Ecological corn production based on local renewables varies from 500 to 5000 kg/ha/year, in parallel with the production of a great diversity of plants and animals.

11. 11 The agro-chemical systems productivity for corn varies from 2000 to 12 000 kg/ha/year. It represents a production increase of 2 to 3 times compared to ecological method! Agro-chemical farms have a high environmental and social impact, and very low sustainability. But these systems destroy native vegetation, biodiversity and ecosystem functions; they pollute, throw away a lot of small farmers and rural workers, concentrate income and depend on massive use of expensive imported chemicals. They have high profit because their negative externalities are not charged! This is an important hidden fact that makes difference.

12. 12 Sustainable rural production depends on: 1. Solar energy (sun, wind, rain); 2. Water basin resources and environmental services (water, humus, sediments, regional biodiversity); 3. Soil minerals mobilized by local soil biota; 4. Nitrogen fixed by bacteria; 5. Environmental services derived from the maintenance of local biodiversity; 6. Animal and direct human work, infra-structure, organization and ecological culture.

13. 13 Use of chemical fertilizers, pesticides, herbicides and intensive mechanization (oil dependency); Non-renewable changes in agriculture: Establishment of expensive infra-structure; Use of electricity, fuels; Diverse chemical products (lime, plastics); Seeds produced out of the region; Animal feed prepared from subsidized grains; Animal waste in excess. Deforestation (clear cutting) and social exclusion;

14. 14 Sustainable agriculture system

15. 15 Non-sustainable agriculture system including negative externalities

16. 16 An aggregated flows diagram should include the negative externalities care as well as the environmental services production

17. 17 A2 A1 A3 A2: Area to provide local and regional environmental services; A1: Area for food, fiber, cattle and energy production; A3: Area for social and environmental impact absorption. A PWD farm demands an Ecological Engineering project:

18. 18 When the farms incorporate non renewables, the natural stocks are destroyed and the environmental services they produce are reduced. “Ancient” agro- ecological system “Modern” agro- chemical system Super intensified agro- chemical system Low productivity system after erosion and fertility loss Recovered agro-ecological system Ecological transition

19. 19 R1R1 R2R2 R3R3 N S M Negative externalities care demand additional services. Non-renewables Renewables Agriculture becomes non-sustainable! The emergy analysis of agriculture reveals the magnitude of input change in recent years and also a crisis in many places Crisis X=S’ Chemicals Time Aggregated emergy flows

20. 20 Environmental services Natural stock Waste Emissions Production (kg/ha/year) Investment Income concentration Input price Profit per hectare Product priceProfit margin Social & climatic problems Contaminants Crisis OUTPUT ISSUES

21. 21 R F N P X Degraded system without fertility Recovered agro- ecological system Renewable resources Products Externalities Natural stocks Aggregated emergy flows Emergy Indices Economy Feedback Original agro- ecological system Agro- chemical system Changes along time Predictions about emergy flows Predictions about aggregated emergy flows

22. 22 Suggestions for Public Policy: It should be necessary to learn how to measure environmental services (water percolation, carbon capture, genetic vigor maintenance, biologic control, ecological culture) and the environmental impacts care (pollution, soil erosion, cost of urban services for marginalized population, etc.) Payment of due environmental services Charge for negative externalities

23. 23 Non Renewable Support About the proper emergy indices (1) F should include negative externalities, as additional S and M R should consider all the renewable flows Tr should be divided into renewable and non renewable terms Each M and S flow has a renewable fraction In EYR, the terms N/F and R/F have oppose effects, then this indicator must be divided: Direct, biodiversity dependent, regional flows Renewable Support Therefore, F, Y and Tr also have a renewable fraction

24. 24 The proper emergy indices (2) Renewability should consider all renewables including M R and S R ELR should consider F R and F N EER should Include: environmental services and subsidies A new definition of EIR is possible: without N support Recycling is very important in Agroecology there must be and indicator for this

25. 25 The End of Oil Actual and Projected Oil Production Increasing: N/F, ELR, EIR, TrN, EER Increasing: %Ren, R/F, TrR Decreasing: %Ren, R/F, TrR Decreasing: N/F, ELR, EIR, TrN, EER Individualism, capitalism competition & exclusion Community solutions Emergy indices Renewable resources The use of R/F and N/F explains the trends better than EYR The same can be said about TrN and TrR

26. 26 6 years? There must be an inversion in the trend! How? Critical value Safe level The book A Prosperous Way Down suggests a production-consumption model with social, ecological, cultural and political care. It could be based on eco-units for ecological ruralization (Folke Gunther)

27. 27 ECO-UNIT: an integrated system for food, energy and environmental services

28. 28 Conclusions a) For a PWD it will be necessary to adopt high renewability production & consumption systems; therefore, it is convenient to study the prototypes that exist around the world. b)These studies should include several frameworks: administrative, political, and psychological. c)The study should use more complete energy flow diagrams and the proper emergy indices. d)Its diagnosis should promote an open and broad discussion about the transition to sustainable societies all over the world, promoted by social movements, academy and governing authorities.

29. 29 Thanks for your attention! Empower the people My suggestion is not to omit include all negative externalities and environmental services the resilience threats good information. Discover how to