1. The Use of Force Why do we use force? What can you do with force? Answer: attain political goals

2. The Functions of Force 1.Defense 2.Deterrence 3.Compellence (coercive diplomacy) 4.Swaggering Based in part on:

3. Sources Thomas Schelling. Strategy of Conflict (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1960). Thomas Schelling. Arms and Influence (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1966). Alexander George, David Hall, William Simons. The Limits of Coercive Diplomacy (Boston: Little, Brown and Co., 1971). Robert Art. To What Ends Military Power? International Security Vol. 4, No. 4 (Spring, 1980), pp. 3-35. Herman Kahn. On Escalation (NY: Penguin, 1965).

4. 1. Defense

5. Defense at its most complex

6. Defense at its most basic

7. 2. Deterrence Goal: To prevent action Method: Threat Aimed at influencing an opponent’s decision making Assumption: rationality

8. Rational Choice Cost Benefit Analysis Threat: increases perception of costs OptionsCostsBenefits A?? B?? C??

9. Types of Deterrence Deterrence by Punishment Deterrence by Denial

10. Communication Europe during the Cold War China and Taiwan

11. Credibility and Reputation Capability Will A bluff?

12. Extended Deterrence Europe Japan S. Korea Israel Taiwan Australia New Zealand

13. What to Threaten?

14. Irrationality? Saddam Hussein Kim Jong-un

15. If deterrence fails….

16. 3. Compellence (coercive diplomacy) Goal: To change opponent behavior To stop an opponent from doing something they are doing To get an opponent to do something they are not doing

17. Basic Elements 1.Brute force won’t work 2.Assumes rationality 3.War is bargaining 4.The power to hurt allows you to enter the bargaining

18. 1. Brute force won’t work

19. 2. Assumes Rationality Cost Benefit Analysis OptionsCostsBenefits A?? B?? C??

20. 3. War is Bargaining

21. 4. Entering the Bargaining? The power to hurt Capability Intentions

22. Some Lessons 1.Shadow of the Future 2.It doesn’t always work 3.Commitment 4.Credibility 5.Democracies and Compellence 6.Balance of Commitment 7.Non-state Actors 8.Civilians 9.Uncertainty and Risk 10.Domestic Politics 11.Irrationality?

23. 1. Shadow of the Future What coerces? The promise of future violence

24. 2. It doesn’t always work

25. Compellence Success Cuban Missile Crisis

26. Compellence Failure F-105s over Vietnam

27. 3. Commitment Berlin Airlift 1948

28. 4. Credibility A. Continue the pain

29. Credibility B. Interdependence of credibility and commitment Reputation Was Vietnam about Europe? “Doctrine of Credibility”

30. 5. Democracies Poor at compellence? Vulnerable?

31. 6. Balance of Commitment Vietnam War

32. Balance of Commitment Ukraine

33. 7. Non-State Actors Two Eras A.Cold War Insurgencies and Marxist ethno- nationalist terrorists Vietcong Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO)

34. Non-State Actors B. Post-Cold War: Network organizations living off of globalization Not state sponsored AQAM Boko Haram ISIL Al-Shabab

35. 8. Civilians Dresden, Feb 1945 World Trade Center

36. 9. Uncertainty and Risk Competition in risk taking Brinkmanship “The Threat That Leaves Something to Chance” Escalation Herman Kahn

37. 10. Domestic Politics and Compellence

38. The Politics of the Target Iranian President Hassan Rouhani Iranian Ayatollah Ali Khamenei

39. Dilemmas Irratioality Perceiving message Can the opponent do what you ask?

40. 4. Swaggering The Great White Fleet 12/07-2/09