1. Population/Economic Growth and the Marine Environment Daniel Huppert School of Marine Affairs University of Washington

2. Pop = 2 bil. in 1929 & = 6 bil. in 2000

3. Components of Pop Change Birth rate (# born per year) Mortality rate (M) - Percentage of population that dies/year - Mortality rate & life expectancy are inversely related Fertility- No. of live births per woman of child bearing age (over life span) data from https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world- factbook/ 2007 estimates

4. Another 2 billion People by 2050

8. Cartogram - Nat’l Population

10. Relationships between Population and Economic Development Econ Develop typically entails improved health services, reduced mortality rates, and increased life expectancy But more developed nations usually have lower population growth rates. The relationship is complex

14. Some Conclusions re Pop Growth Causality may be -- economic growth spurs reductions in mortality and fertility and, ultimately, in population growth. But, of course, economic growth means higher production & income per capita, which involves increased land conversion, fuel consumption, etc. … and that may cause pollution, etc.

15. Europe - Developed Landscape Air and water pollution are extensive Over-fishing and coastal pollution degrade marine ecosystems

17. Coastal counties contain 53% of the nation’s population, yet, excluding Alaska, account for only 17% of U.S. land area. Coastal Population Pressure in the US

21. Pew Oceans Commission Growth effects on the Coasts Population Land consumption due to suburban development patterns Increased auto use Impervious surface > 10% degrades rivers & estuaries

22. Example - Impervious Surface area in Puget Sound Region (From PSAT website) This will likely expand with economic growth & population

24. Human Population Growth WA State Population roughly doubled since 1970 State Forecast = 8+ million by 2030

25. WA Annual Pop Growth from WA OFM Cyclical pattern tracks economic growth Most Pop. Growth due to Migration

26. Population & Economic Growth Generally Means: (1) More homes, roads, schools, shopping malls (2) Increased land conversion, water diversion, air pollution, run-off of oil and chemicals (3) More shoreline bulkheads, fishing pressure, overwater structures, marinas, saltwater recreation, maritime traffic

27. Some Consequences Nutrient and toxic inputs to nearshore water Diminished Water Quality Harmful Algae Blooms (HABs) Shoreline Armoring Altered river hydrology and run-off patterns Nearshore Habitat Loss

28. A More Rural Area Skagit Delta - Whidbey basin

31. Fir Island Aerial View from Grossman

32. WDNR estimates 1/3 of WA shorelines have been modified and 70% of tidal lands degraded

33. Economic Outputs Seafood Transportation Housing/Amenities Recreation Processes Resource Extraction Manufacturing & Construction Land Use Shoreline Bldg. Population Migration and Aging Technical Change Shifting Values Conditions Demographics Incomes Educational Level Housing & Facilities Non-Market Assets Institutions and Organizations Dominant Attitudes Beliefs and Values Public Policy Property Rules Incentive Systems Decision Mechanisms Human Effects Water Pollution & Sediments Land Cover/Use Species Harvests Structural Changes (dikes) Conditions Geomorphology Salinity Patterns Water quality Wetlands extent and Structure Habitat Quality Species Abundance Species Diversity Processes Primary Production Nutrient Flow Trophic Dynamics Upwelling & Tides Climate change Sedimentation Species Invasion Estuarine Ecosystem Socioeconomic System Systems View of Coastal Socio-Ecological System* *Modified from PNCERS socio-economic research (Huppert et al. 2003)

36. Status of Fishery Resources Fish Stock Assessments - Rating of Current Levels vs. “Desirable” Levels

37. Summary of 2002 FAO Report ~ 25% of major marine fish stocks are underexploited or moderately exploited ~47% are fully exploited ~18% of stocks or species are overexploited ~ 10% are significantly depleted or are recovering from depletion

38. Example Suppose: initial population is 1 bil; birth rate is 3%; mortality rate = 2%; Pop growth = 3% - 2% = 1% Birth rate is determined by number of females (500 mil) and fertility (say 4) over 20 years.

39. Population and Employment Forecast WA State Projected to continue at current growth rate = 8+ million people in WA by 2030