1. Security and Stability in the South Caucasus Achim Wennmann Graduate Institute of International Studies Geneva Innsbruck, 1 October 2006

2. Presentation Outline Similarities Similarities Differences Differences Third party interestsThird party interests Conflict dynamicsConflict dynamics Implications for EU involvement Implications for EU involvement

3. 1. Similarities Dissolution of Soviet Union Dissolution of Soviet Union Territorial conflicts Territorial conflicts Formerly mixed population structure Formerly mixed population structure Atrocities committed by all parties Atrocities committed by all parties Refugee problem Refugee problem Disagreements on future status Disagreements on future status

4. 2. Differences: 3 rd parties United States United States Geo-strategic interestsGeo-strategic interests StabilityStability Russia Russia Historical MemoryHistorical Memory Interests in GeorgiaInterests in Georgia

5. 2. Differences: Conflict dynamics Nagorno-Karabakh Nagorno-Karabakh NegotiationsNegotiations Window of opportunity closing?Window of opportunity closing? Effect of petrol on peace processEffect of petrol on peace process Abkhazia/South Ossetia Abkhazia/South Ossetia Frozen conflict overFrozen conflict over New elite in Georgia wants changeNew elite in Georgia wants change Strategy of GeorgiaStrategy of Georgia

6. 3. Conclusion and EU implications Characteristics of conflicts Characteristics of conflicts Conflicts similar but distinctConflicts similar but distinct Conflicts a function of 3 rd party involvement and strategies to maintain power of local elitesConflicts a function of 3 rd party involvement and strategies to maintain power of local elites EU implications EU implications Not able to compete with US & RussiaNot able to compete with US & Russia Limited impact on local elitesLimited impact on local elites Potentialities: Potentialities: Police reformPolice reform End isolation of de-facto statesEnd isolation of de-facto states Prepare populations for compromisePrepare populations for compromise