1. FOOD SECURITY AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE Mike Brklacich Carleton University, Canada Inter-American Institute for Global Environment Change, Brazil [next]

2. OVERVIEW Food Security Research Themes Food Security Research Themes Climatic Change & Agriculture: Climatic Change & Agriculture: Two Generations of Research Food Security & Global Environmental Change: Bridging the Gap Food Security & Global Environmental Change: Bridging the Gap

3. FOOD SECURITY DEFINED “ People having access to sufficient stocks and supplies of food to provide a nutritionally adequate diet”

4. FOOD SECURITY DIMENSIONS FoodSupply SpatialScales Global – National MajorIssues Food supply Stable mkts MajorViews Adequate food Self-sufficiency

5. FOOD SECURITY DIMENSIONS FoodSupplyFoodEntitlement SpatialScales Global – National National – Community MajorIssues Food supply Stable mkts Food access Nutrition MajorViews Adequate food Self-sufficiency Food rights Economic access

6. FOOD SECURITY DIMENSIONS FoodSupplyFoodEntitlement Food & Human Security SpatialScales Global – National National – Community Community - Household MajorIssues Food supply Stable mkts Food access Nutrition Coping mech. Food choice MajorViews Adequate food Self-sufficiency Food rights Economic access Livelihoods Household viability

7. KEY ATTRIBUTES OF FOOD SECURITY Multiple dimensions Multiple dimensions Multiple scales Multiple scales Beyond securing food, securing human livelihoods Beyond securing food, securing human livelihoods Environmental variability considered Environmental variability considered Environmental change (esp GEC) not a major focus Environmental change (esp GEC) not a major focus

8. ADDING GEC TO THE FOOD SECURITY AGENDA “ Adding GEC to the FS research agenda will require an understanding and assessment of the socio-economic context within which food systems are situated as well as GEC processes and impacts”

9. CLIMATIC CHANGE & AGRICULTURE : TWO GENERATIONS OF RESEARCH

10. Macro-Climatic Change Scenarios First-Order Impacts: (Regional Agro-climatic Properties) Second-Order Impacts: (Agric. Land Suitability and Crop Yields) Higher-Order Impacts: (Farm and Regional Production) FIRST GENERATION STUDIES: IMPACTS OF CLIMATIC CHANGE

11. Macro-Climatic Change Scenarios Impacts Adaptation Nonresponse Mitigation SECOND GENERATION STUDIES: RESPONSES TO CLIMATIC CHANGE

12. IIASA-FAO STUDY Source: Fisher et al 2001

13. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON CEREAL YIELDS Source: Fisher et al 2001 Scenario:HadCM3-A1FI, 2080s Country-level climate change impacts on rain-fed cereal production potential: Source: Fisher et al 2001

14. 1 ST & 2 ND GENERATION CLIMATIC CHANGE AGRICULTURE STUDIES RESEARCH ATTRIBUTES Single stressor Single stressor Slow, incremental GEC Slow, incremental GEC Single scale Single scale Limited socio-economic change Limited socio-economic change Vulnerability as a GEC residual Vulnerability as a GEC residual

15. 1 ST & 2 ND GENERATION CLIMATIC CHANGE AGRICULTURE STUDIES CONTRIBUTIONS TO FOOD SECURITY ASSESSMENTS Effective assessment of food supply issues Effective assessment of food supply issues Less able to address food entitlement, food access and human livelihood perspectives Less able to address food entitlement, food access and human livelihood perspectives

16. CLIMATIC CHANGE - AGRICULTURE & FOOD SECURITY RESEARCH: BRIDGING THE GAP

17. INTEGRATING FOOD SECURITY & CLIMATIC CHANGE Broaden Climatic Change Agriculture Context Broaden Climatic Change Agriculture Context Multiple stressors Comprehensive scenarios Vulnerability as a Food System Property not a GEC Residual Vulnerability as a Food System Property not a GEC Residual Understanding Vulnerability Understanding Vulnerability Who & what & why? Measuring differential vulnerability

18. INTEGRATING FOOD SECURITY & CLIMATIC CHANGE cont’d GEC & Scale Issues GEC & Scale Issues Fast vs slow onset Scale integration Science – Policy Linkages Science – Policy Linkages Interventions to reduce food system vulnerability/improve security Improve adaptive capacity - GEC mitigation coupling

19. 3 RD GENERATION STUDIES: FOOD SYTEM VULNERABILITY- SECURITY FOCUS GUIDING FACTORS Likelihood an individual or group will be exposed to and impacted (positively or negatively) by GEC Likelihood an individual or group will be exposed to and impacted (positively or negatively) by GEC Capacity to anticipate, cope with, resist, recover from and if necessary adapt from GEC impacts Capacity to anticipate, cope with, resist, recover from and if necessary adapt from GEC impacts

20. BUILDING A FRAMEWORK TO LINK CLIMATIC CHANGE & FOOD SECURITY GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE Change in freq & mag of threats GEC Exposure FOOD SYSTEM SENSITIVITIES

21. BUILDING A FRAMEWORK TO LINK CLIMATIC CHANGE & FOOD SECURITY GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE Change in freq & mag of threats GEC Exposure FOOD SYSTEM VULNERABILITY/ SECURITY Capacity to cope with & adapt to GEC SOCIETAL CHANGE Change in institutions, resource accessibility, economic conditions, etc

22. CONCLUDING POINTS Food Security Dimensions Food Security Dimensions Supply, access & livelihood Climatic Change Agriculture & Food Security Climatic Change Agriculture & Food Security Supply focus to date Climatic Change Agriculture & Food Security Integration Climatic Change Agriculture & Food Security Integration Explicit consideration of food system vulnerability and security

23. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON CEREAL YIELDS Source: Fisher et al 2001

24. CLIMATIC CHANGE & FOOD SECURITY Source: Fisher et al 2001