1. 1 Project I Econ 240c Spring 2005

2. 2 Issues  Parsimonious models  2005: March or April 9.3 wks or 8.9 wks  Trend  Residual seasonality  Forecasts: sharp peaks or broad peaks?  Model selection  The labor market  Trend  Broad peaks

3. 3 ∆ duration  Jesse Smith: ar(1) ar(4) ar(24) ar(36)  Carl-Einar Thorner; Joonho Shin; Calvin Yeung; Connor Gleason: ma(1) ma(4) ma(24) ma(36)  Sarab Khalsa: ar(1) ar(2) ma(1) ma(2)

4. 4 ∆ lnduration  Matt Stevens: ma(1) ma(4) sma(24) sma(36)  Yana Ten: ma(1) ma(4) ar(24) ar(36)  Ashley Hedberg: ar(1) ar(2) ma(1) ma(2)  Aren Megerdichian: ar(1) ma(1) ma(2) ma(3)

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19. 19 Arma(2,2) Trend& ARMA(2,3)

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