Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

11/10/2001 The IMA Workshop "Complexity in Geophysical Systems" 1 Complexity of inverse and direct cascading of earthquakes Vladimir Kossobokov International.

Published by Modified over 9 years ago

Similar presentations

Presentation on theme: "11/10/2001 The IMA Workshop "Complexity in Geophysical Systems" 1 Complexity of inverse and direct cascading of earthquakes Vladimir Kossobokov International."— Presentation transcript:

1 11/10/2001 The IMA Workshop "Complexity in Geophysical Systems" 1 Complexity of inverse and direct cascading of earthquakes Vladimir Kossobokov International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, 79-2 Warshavskoye Shosse, Moscow 113556, Russian Federation Institute de Physique du Globe de Paris, 4 Place Jussieu, 75252 Paris, Cedex 05, France E-mail: volodya@mitp.ru or volodya@ipgp.jussieu.fr

2 11/10/2001 The IMA Workshop "Complexity in Geophysical Systems" 2 Outline Uniform presentation of seismic dynamics prior to and after all the recent earthquakes of magnitude 8.0 or larger, 1985-2000 What is in common and different? Witness to “transient phase changes” in system of blocks-and-faults?

3 11/10/2001 The IMA Workshop "Complexity in Geophysical Systems" 3 19/09/1985 Mexico Earthquake

4 11/10/2001 The IMA Workshop "Complexity in Geophysical Systems" 4 20/10/1986 Kermadek Earthquake

5 11/10/2001 The IMA Workshop "Complexity in Geophysical Systems" 5 23/05/1989 Macquarie Earthquake

6 11/10/2001 The IMA Workshop "Complexity in Geophysical Systems" 6 08/08/1993 Guam Earthquake

7 11/10/2001 The IMA Workshop "Complexity in Geophysical Systems" 7 09/06/1994 Bolivia Deep Earthquake The Great Deep Bolivia earthquake did occur after the January 10, 1994, magnitude 6.9, depth 595 km earthquake at distance of about 250 km. The previous earthquake that deep happened here in 1963.

8 11/10/2001 The IMA Workshop "Complexity in Geophysical Systems" 8 04/10/1994 Shikotan Earthquake

9 11/10/2001 The IMA Workshop "Complexity in Geophysical Systems" 9 07/04/1995 Samoa Earthquake

10 11/10/2001 The IMA Workshop "Complexity in Geophysical Systems" 10 03/12/1995 Iturup Earthquake

11 11/10/2001 The IMA Workshop "Complexity in Geophysical Systems" 11 17/02/1996 New Guinea Earthquake

12 11/10/2001 The IMA Workshop "Complexity in Geophysical Systems" 12 25/03/1998 Balleny Sea Earthquake

13 11/10/2001 The IMA Workshop "Complexity in Geophysical Systems" 13 04/06/2000 South Sumatera Earthquake

14 11/10/2001 The IMA Workshop "Complexity in Geophysical Systems" 14 Cascading of earthquakes … detectable by reproducible earthquake prediction methods Case histories of the recent earthquakes of magnitude 8 or above prove it and evidence consecutive stages of inverse cascading of seismic activity to the main shock.

15 11/10/2001 The IMA Workshop "Complexity in Geophysical Systems" 15 Worldwide performance of earthquake prediction algorithms M8 and M8-MSc: Magnitude 8.0 or more. The significance level estimates use the most conservative measure of the alarm volume accounting for empirical distribution of epicenters. Test period Large earthquakes Total Predicted by M8 M8-MSc Percentage of alarms M8 M8-MSc Significance, % M8 M8-MSc 1985-2001 1992-2001 9 8 7 7 6 5 34.9 18.0 30.2 15.3 99. 86 99. 98 99. 61 99. 87

16 11/10/2001 The IMA Workshop "Complexity in Geophysical Systems" 16 Cascading of earthquakes Apparently more complicated than so far suggested power-laws…

17 11/10/2001 The IMA Workshop "Complexity in Geophysical Systems" 17 Benioff strain release in 20 years before the great shocks

18 11/10/2001 The IMA Workshop "Complexity in Geophysical Systems" 18 Benioff strain release in 20 years before great shocks ( Log-scale )

19 11/10/2001 The IMA Workshop "Complexity in Geophysical Systems" 19 Aftershock sequences of the great shocks

20 11/10/2001 The IMA Workshop "Complexity in Geophysical Systems" 20 Activity in 10 years before + 3 years after the great shocks

21 11/10/2001 The IMA Workshop "Complexity in Geophysical Systems" 21 Aftershock sequences of the great shocks (summary) DateNumber 100 days Number 3 years Aftershocks decay 100 d Aftershocks decay 3 y Relaxation time, years 1985/09/19 1986/10/20 1989/05/23 1993/08/08 1994/06/09 1994/10/04 1995/04/07 1995/12/03 1996/02/17 1998/03/25 2000/06/04 29 151 36 121 5 515 52 311 357 38 278 65 205 54 247 5 919 302 483 427 46* 278* Omori Law Modified OL 3 Omori Law Modified OL 2 Omori Law Modified OL 2 Modified OL 3 Modified OL 2 Modified OL 3 - Modified OL 3 Modified OL 2 Modified OL 3 Modified OL 2 * 284 days 100 days, =1.5 1.3 years, >3 65 days, >1.5 - 2 years, >2.5 14 days, >2 1 year 2 years, >2.5 140 days *

22 11/10/2001 The IMA Workshop "Complexity in Geophysical Systems" 22 Conclusions Earthquakes evidence consecutive stages of inverse cascading of seismic activity to main shock and direct cascading of aftershocks. The first may reflect coalescence of instabilities at the approach, while the second may indicate readjustment of a complex system of blocks-and-faults in a new state after a catastrophe. The cascades observed in seismic dynamics are by far more diverse than a power-law family.

23 11/10/2001 The IMA Workshop "Complexity in Geophysical Systems" 23 Global Hypocenters Data Base CD ‑ ROM, version III, 1994. NEIC/USGS, Denver, CO. and its PDE and QED updates) Keilis-Borok and Kossobokov. Phys. Earth Planet. Inter. 61:73-83, 1990 Kossobokov, Keilis-Borok, Romashkova, and Healy. Phys. Earth and Planet. Inter., 111, 3-4: 187-196, 1999. Kossobokov, Keilis-Borok, and Smith. J. Geophys. Res., 95: 19763-19772, 1990. Romashkova and Kossobokov, Comput. Seismol., 32: 162-189, 2001. This presentation was supported from the ISTC grant #1538.

Download ppt "11/10/2001 The IMA Workshop "Complexity in Geophysical Systems" 1 Complexity of inverse and direct cascading of earthquakes Vladimir Kossobokov International."

Similar presentations

Contributions of Prof. Tokuji Utsu to Statistical Seismology and Recent Developments Ogata, Yosihiko The Institute of Statistical Mathematics ， Tokyo and.

Contributions of Prof. Tokuji Utsu to Statistical Seismology and Recent Developments Ogata, Yosihiko The Institute of Statistical Mathematics ， Tokyo and.
Detecting Aseismic Fault Slip and Magmatic Intrusion From Seismicity Data A. L. Llenos 1, J. J. McGuire 2 1 MIT/WHOI Joint Program in Oceanography 2 Woods.

Detecting Aseismic Fault Slip and Magmatic Intrusion From Seismicity Data A. L. Llenos 1, J. J. McGuire 2 1 MIT/WHOI Joint Program in Oceanography 2 Woods.
1 – Stress contributions 2 – Probabilistic approach 3 – Deformation transients Small earthquakes contribute as much as large earthquakes do to stress changes.

1 – Stress contributions 2 – Probabilistic approach 3 – Deformation transients Small earthquakes contribute as much as large earthquakes do to stress changes.
06 July 2007 IUGG 2007 - US006: Challenges and Advances in Nonlinear Geophysics 1 Similarity and Difference in sequences of solar flares, earthquakes,

06 July 2007 IUGG US006: Challenges and Advances in Nonlinear Geophysics 1 Similarity and Difference in sequences of solar flares, earthquakes,
Dynamics of epicenters in the Olami-Feder-Christensen Model Carmen P. C. Prado Universidade de São Paulo Workshop on Transport and Self Organization in.

Dynamics of epicenters in the Olami-Feder-Christensen Model Carmen P. C. Prado Universidade de São Paulo Workshop on Transport and Self Organization in.
Lab 2 Seismogram Interpretation

Lab 2 Seismogram Interpretation
1 Vertically Integrated Seismic Analysis Stuart Russell Computer Science Division, UC Berkeley Nimar Arora, Erik Sudderth, Nick Hay.

1 Vertically Integrated Seismic Analysis Stuart Russell Computer Science Division, UC Berkeley Nimar Arora, Erik Sudderth, Nick Hay.
Dynamics of epicenters in the Olami-Feder-Christensen Model Carmen P. C. Prado Universidade de São Paulo

Dynamics of epicenters in the Olami-Feder-Christensen Model Carmen P. C. Prado Universidade de São Paulo
Yan Y. Kagan Dept. Earth and Space Sciences, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1567, EARTHQUAKE PREDICTABILITY.

Yan Y. Kagan Dept. Earth and Space Sciences, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA , EARTHQUAKE PREDICTABILITY.
05/10/2001 The IMA Special Event: Vladimir Keilis-Borok 80th Birthday Festschrift 1 Rise of activity, i.e. inverse cascading, at the approach of an extreme.

05/10/2001 The IMA Special Event: Vladimir Keilis-Borok 80th Birthday Festschrift 1 Rise of activity, i.e. inverse cascading, at the approach of an extreme.
Accelerating Moment Release in Modified Stress Release Models of Regional Seismicity Steven C. Jaume´, Department of Geology, College of Charleston, Charleston,

Accelerating Moment Release in Modified Stress Release Models of Regional Seismicity Steven C. Jaume´, Department of Geology, College of Charleston, Charleston,
Earthquake predictability measurement: information score and error diagram Yan Y. Kagan Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of California.

Earthquake predictability measurement: information score and error diagram Yan Y. Kagan Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of California.
Yan Y. Kagan Dept. Earth and Space Sciences, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1567, Global.

Yan Y. Kagan Dept. Earth and Space Sciences, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA , Global.
Yan Y. Kagan Dept. Earth and Space Sciences, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1567, Rules of the Western.

Yan Y. Kagan Dept. Earth and Space Sciences, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA , Rules of the Western.
Omori law The modified Omori law Omori law for foreshocks Aftershocks of aftershocks Physical aspects of temporal clustering.

Omori law The modified Omori law Omori law for foreshocks Aftershocks of aftershocks Physical aspects of temporal clustering.
 ss=  * +(a-b) ln(V/V * ) a-b > 0 stable sliding a-b < 0 slip is potentially unstable Correspond to T~300 °C For Quartzo- Feldspathic rocks Stationary.

 ss=  * +(a-b) ln(V/V * ) a-b > 0 stable sliding a-b < 0 slip is potentially unstable Correspond to T~300 °C For Quartzo- Feldspathic rocks Stationary.
Changes that IMPACT peoples lives! Changes to the Earth and Peoples lives in a matter of seconds.

Changes that IMPACT peoples lives! Changes to the Earth and Peoples lives in a matter of seconds.
Lecture 16 Earthquakes What are earthquakes? Elastic rebound theory Waves generated by earthquakes: P waves, S waves, Surface waves Locating earthquakes.

Lecture 16 Earthquakes What are earthquakes? Elastic rebound theory Waves generated by earthquakes: P waves, S waves, Surface waves Locating earthquakes.
By Trinidad Arroyo. This gradual accumulation and release of stress and strain is now referred to as the elastic rebound theory of earthquakes. Most.

By Trinidad Arroyo. This gradual accumulation and release of stress and strain is now referred to as the "elastic rebound theory" of earthquakes. Most.
Earthquakes  What they are  Where they occur  How fast they travel  How to locate their centers  Their strength.

Earthquakes  What they are  Where they occur  How fast they travel  How to locate their centers  Their strength.

Similar presentations

Ads by Google