1. Climate recap and outlook Philip Mote, PhD University of Washington Center for Science in the Earth System - Climate Impacts Group Boise, ID October 17, 2006 Philip Mote, PhD University of Washington Center for Science in the Earth System - Climate Impacts Group Boise, ID October 17, 2006

2. The CSES - Climate Impacts Group Goal: help the Pacific Northwest become more resilient to climate variations and climate change Supported by NOAA Climate Program Office as part of the Regional Integrated Science and Assessments (RISA) program Goal: help the Pacific Northwest become more resilient to climate variations and climate change Supported by NOAA Climate Program Office as part of the Regional Integrated Science and Assessments (RISA) program http://cses.washington.edu/cig/

3. global warming http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov

4. The pattern is global http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov

5. Current drought

7. Accumulated Precip for the past year Source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/precipitation/northwest_1yrprec.s html

9. Daily Temperatures +0.89ºC +1.23ºC

10. 2006 snow pack

11. Warm weather in May started a rapid melt of the PNWs abundant snow pack

12. Our hot-dry summer For OR-ID-WA, May-June-July 2006 was warmest on record (back to 1895) June-July- August was 3rd warmest on record For OR-ID-WA, May-June-July 2006 was warmest on record (back to 1895) June-July- August was 3rd warmest on record

13. Current stream flow from the USGS

14. Oct 9 estimated soil moisture percentiles Courtesy of Andy Wood, University of Washington, data and images are available at http://www.hydro.washi ngton.edu/forecast/ monitor Courtesy of Andy Wood, University of Washington, data and images are available at http://www.hydro.washi ngton.edu/forecast/ monitor

15. Last year’s outlook The ENSO outlook: La Nada (“normal”) PNW climate outlook: odds favoring a “warm” winter and spring The ENSO outlook: La Nada (“normal”) PNW climate outlook: odds favoring a “warm” winter and spring

16. IRI ENSO Forecast Summary Forecasts from October 2005 called for Nino34 ranging from -0.2 to +0.6, with an average of ~+0.2 http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENS O/currentinfo/SST_table.html#figur e

17. Oct 12, 2005 NOAA NCEP ENSO forecasts http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/ensoforecast.html

18. Nov-Mar 2006 SST anomalies: a mild La Niña for the Pacific

19. Last year’s forecast (from Oct 20) DJF temp 2005-06 FMA temp 2006

20. Last year’s precipitation forecasts for 2005-2006: issued Oct 20 2005

21. Global Ocean Surface Temperatures: July 2-September 30 2006

22. The tropical ocean is warm http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/l

23. El Niño is simmering Tropical ocean temperatures have been warmer than average since mid- May, and have already crossed the “El Niño” threshold

24. The latest ENSO forecasts See http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO European Center NOAA NCEP Forecast summaries

26. Average El Niño winter precip: 1916- 2003 Dry for most of Idaho From http://www.cses.washin gton.edu/cig/maps Dry for most of Idaho From http://www.cses.washin gton.edu/cig/maps

27. Pacific Ocean Outlook Summary Current forecasts rate weak-to-moderate El Niño as most likely situation for 2006/07 PDO: A simple forecast with skill relies on “PDO persistence + ENSO influence” ( see Newman et al. (2003), J. Climate ) Expect weak warm phase PDO conditions for 2006/7 PDO = +0.3 to +0.8 st devs for Nino34 = +0.5 to +1.5 A Note on Last year… Current forecasts rate weak-to-moderate El Niño as most likely situation for 2006/07 PDO: A simple forecast with skill relies on “PDO persistence + ENSO influence” ( see Newman et al. (2003), J. Climate ) Expect weak warm phase PDO conditions for 2006/7 PDO = +0.3 to +0.8 st devs for Nino34 = +0.5 to +1.5 A Note on Last year… (July-June averages) ForecastObserved Nino3.4 index-0.2 to +0.6-0.14 PDO index+0.2 to +.6+0.12

28. NOAA/CPC forecasts issued September 21, 2006 OND precip JFM precip http://cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

29. NOAA/CPC forecasts issued September 21, 2006 OND temperature JFM temperature

30. Another factor in seasonal forecasts Idaho December-January-February temperatures

31. The Bottom line a weak to moderate El Niño is likely for the next 2-3 seasons because of trends and expectations for a weak to moderate intensity El Niño, above- average fall/winter/spring temperatures are likely El Niño also tilts the odds in favor of a dry fall/winter and below average end-of- season snow pack a weak to moderate El Niño is likely for the next 2-3 seasons because of trends and expectations for a weak to moderate intensity El Niño, above- average fall/winter/spring temperatures are likely El Niño also tilts the odds in favor of a dry fall/winter and below average end-of- season snow pack See http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov