1. Ch 3: Characterization of the SFBR Earthquake Sources Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, 2002

2. Overview  Fault Segmentation  Rupture Sources & Scenarios  Geologic Slip Rates  Previous Earthquakes  Fault Area

3. Area covered by report

4. Fault Segments  the shortest section considered capable of repeatedly rupturing to produce large earthquakes  criteria: kinematic & dynamic  kinematic: geometry, structure  dynamic: rupture length, displacement of previous eqs, timing, changes in slip/creep rates, microearthquakes

5. Ruptures  rupture source: single or combination of adjacent fault segments; floating eq  rupture scenario: combination of rupture sources that describe mode of failure of the entire fault during one eq cycle  rupture model: weighted combinations of the fault-rupture scenarios

6. Hayward-Rogers Creek Segments  140 km long  3 segments: 9±2  RC: 8.4±2, 235-387  HN: 10±1, 270-710  HS: 7-10, 150-250 N, 130±40 S Tule Pond  creep 4-6  change in timing constraint from previous reports

7. Rupture Model Construction

8. San Andreas Segments

9. ~260 ~300 ~150

10. San Gregorio Segments

11. Calaveras Fault Segments

12. Green Valley & Concord Faults

13. Greenville Fault Segments

15. Segment Dimensions

16. Follow-up Papers  Segall, P., and Lisowski, M., 1990, Surface displacements in the 1906 San Francisco and 1989 Loma Prieta earthquakes: Science, v. 250, no. 4985, p. 1241-1244.  Schwartz, D.P., Pantosti, D., Okumura, K., Powers, T., and Hamilton, J., 1998, Paleoseismic investigations in the Santa Cruz Mountains: Implications for the recurrence of large magnitude earthquakes on the San Andreas Fault: Journal of Geophysical Research, v. 103, p. 17,985-18,001.  Thatcher, W., Marshall, G., and Lisowski, M., 1997, Resolution of fault slip along the 470-km- long rupture of the great 1906 San Francisco earthquake: Journal of Geophysical Research, v. 102, no. B3, p. 5353-5367.  Lettis, W., 2001, Late Holocene behavior and seismogenic potential of the Hayward-Rodgers- Creek fault system in the San Francisco Bay area, California: Calif. Geol. Surv. Bulletin, v. 210, p. 167-178.  C. Goldfinger et al., Rupture lengths and temporal history of significant earthquakes on the offshore and north coast segments of the Northern San Andreas Fault based on turbidite stratigraphy, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. (2006).