1. UniS 16 th Bled Electronic Commerce Conference eTransformation June, 9-11, 2003 Modelling digital content markets

2. 2 Prototyp A demonstration SimWeb www.simdigital.com 05/06 2003 Principles  Objectives Understanding the market -Identification of the components and participants of the market: Who are the content providers, what do consumers want.. Simulating -Creating scenarios and simulations enables decision makers to better understand the market and learn about its dynamics  Principle Abstraction -The complexity of a real market must be translated into an object model that can be manipulated by using a computer Simplification -Actions, decisions and relations between market participants must be simplified for a representation in a formal model

3. 3 Prototyp A demonstration SimWeb www.simdigital.com 05/06 2003 Method  Iterative approach Design – Prototyping – User feedback Market analysis, expert interviews, surveys Because of the degree of uncertainty and imprecise knowledge about online markets, a series of prototypes is being developed. In each iteration insights of the former steps are integrated and more complex models constructed Market analysis, interviews Prototype User panel / Evaluation Design Workshop

4. 4 Prototyp A demonstration SimWeb www.simdigital.com 05/06 2003 Development stage  Prototype A (End of first iteration): Aims: -Decide what software components to use -Implement a first version of the core process of the program -Create something concrete to start from and to talk about Model: -A simple, general model of a market consisting of providers, consumers and products -The user defines a model by specifying products, providers and consumers for a certain market Each provider has a set of offers he wants to sell in a market, and each consumer has a set of preferences Simulation: -Only a single step is simulated -In this step consumers evaluate available offers and buy from a provider whose offer matches best to their preference

5. 5 Prototyp A demonstration SimWeb www.simdigital.com 05/06 2003 Example: Online news in Portugal Participants and products traded  Products: Breaking news Business news Weather news …  Providers: Publico.pt Diario de Noticias Lusa …  Customers: Internet Service Providers Mobile phone companies …

6. 6 Prototyp A demonstration SimWeb www.simdigital.com 05/06 2003 Example: Online news in Portugal Definition of the dimensions  Providers are defined by attributes related to their reputation and credibility. Example attributes: Credibility Offline brand Editorial staff  Products are defined by attributes related to quality and price. Example attributes: Price Subscription period Quality of sources  Costumers are by now defined only by their preference.

7. 7 Prototyp A demonstration SimWeb www.simdigital.com 05/06 2003 Example: Online news in Portugal Definition of supply and demand  An offer is a product that has certain values for its attributes Example: Breaking news for 5000 €/month  A preference consists of provider and product attributes that a customer wishes to have certain values or value ranges Example: Breaking news for 4000-5000 € a month from the market leader

8. 8 Prototyp A demonstration SimWeb www.simdigital.com 05/06 2003 Future work  Objectives for the next iteration Simulating several steps (months, years..) Introduction of behaviours and strategies: Providers can apply different strategies and change them depending on success. Different groups of consumers can be defined with certain purchase behaviours. Methods for analysis  How to achieve this Expert interviews (defining strategies and behaviours) User feedback and demonstrations (refining the model and adapting the software to user requirements)

9. Thank you! Stephan Schuster Dpt. of Sociology, University of Surrey, Guildford GU2 7XH, UK s.schuster@surrey.ac.uk +44-1483-683965 www.simdigital.com