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Knowledge Management for UEFA Champions League By Harsha Gunnam Hetal Mehta Nargis Memon Manish Wadhwa
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6/10/2015MIS 580: Knowledge Management2 TasksHarshaHetalNargisManish Initial Research Literature Review Data Extraction Database Creation Coefficient Analysis Ranking Analysis Trend Analysis Prediction of Winners Testing of Results Final Report & Presentation Individual Contributions Objectives Process Basic Findings Introduction Sources Interesting FindingsFuture WorkConclusion
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6/10/2015MIS 580: Knowledge Management3 Agenda Objectives Process Basic Findings Introduction Sources Interesting Findings IntroductionObjectivesProcessSourcesBasic FindingsInteresting FindingsConclusionFuture Work Conclusion
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6/10/2015MIS 580: Knowledge Management4 UEFA Champions League Competition System 1st qualifying round24 2nd qualifying round16+12 3rd qualifying round18+14 Group stage16+16 First knock-out round16 Quarter finals8 Semi-finals4 Final2 Introduction Objectives Process Basic Findings Introduction Sources Interesting Findings UEFA - The governing body of football on the continent of Europe Champions League – Started in 1992 Most Prestigious Trophy in the Sport Current Champion: AC Milan Format – Future WorkConclusion
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6/10/2015MIS 580: Knowledge Management5 Identify the top three leagues for 2008-2009Identify top 4 clubs for the top 3 leaguesIdentify the home and away advantageIdentify the head-to-head probabilityIdentify possible array of winners for 2008-2009 Research Objectives Objectives Process Basic Findings Introduction Sources Interesting FindingsFuture WorkConclusion
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6/10/2015MIS 580: Knowledge Management6 Papahristodoulou, Christos, "Team Performance in UEFA Champions League 2005-06." Munich Personal RePEc Archive (2006) Unpublished, Paper #138 Barros, Carlos Pestana, Leach, Stephanie, “Performance evaluation of the English Premier Football League with data envelopment analysis.” Applied Economics Vol. 38 No. 12 (2006): 1449-1458 http://www.betinf.com/champ.htm http://www.betinf.com/champ.htm Sports Betting Information http://www.betstudy.com/soccer-stats/c/europe/uefa-champions-league/ http://www.betstudy.com/soccer-stats/c/europe/uefa-champions-league/ Online Betting Guide http://en.uclpredictor.uefa.com/ http://en.uclpredictor.uefa.com/ Online Predictor Game Literature Review Objectives Process Basic Findings Introduction Sources Interesting FindingsFuture WorkConclusion
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6/10/2015MIS 580: Knowledge Management7 Research Design Objectives Process Basic Findings Introduction Sources Interesting Findings Excel Data Extraction Ranking Analysis Coefficient Analysis Top 3 Leagues Top 12 Teams Array of Winners Head-to-Head Probability Home & Away Advantage MySQL UEFA Data Source Future WorkConclusion
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6/10/2015MIS 580: Knowledge Management8 Data Sources Objectives Process Basic Findings Introduction Sources Interesting Findings UEFA Data Source http://www.xs4all.nl/~kassiesa/bert/uefa/ http://www.xs4all.nl/~kassiesa/bert/uefa/ Data collected over 6 seasons 2002-2008 Attributes - Future WorkConclusion
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6/10/2015MIS 580: Knowledge Management9 Basic Findings Objectives Process Basic Findings Introduction Sources Interesting FindingsFuture WorkConclusion Coefficient Analysis
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6/10/2015MIS 580: Knowledge Management10 Standard UEFA Calculations Country Coefficient = Number of Points/Number of Teams Calculation Accuracy: 100% Team Coefficient = Number of Points + 33% of Country Coefficient Calculation Accuracy: 100% Coefficient Analysis Objectives Process Basic Findings Introduction Sources Interesting FindingsFuture WorkConclusion
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6/10/2015MIS 580: Knowledge Management11 Basic Findings Objectives Process Basic Findings Introduction Sources Interesting FindingsFuture WorkConclusion Ranking Analysis
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6/10/2015MIS 580: Knowledge Management12 Predicted Ranking Objectives Process Basic Findings Introduction Sources Interesting Findings Accuracy: 100% Years Considered: 2003-2008 Country Ranking = Summation of 5 years of Country Coefficients Team Ranking = Summation of 5 years of Team Coefficients Future WorkConclusion
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6/10/2015MIS 580: Knowledge Management13 Ranking Analysis - Leagues Objectives Process Basic Findings Introduction Sources Interesting Findings Observations: Spain, England and Italy: Top three leagues for the past six seasons Romania: Rapid Improvement Future WorkConclusion
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6/10/2015MIS 580: Knowledge Management14 Top Leagues & Teams Objectives Process Basic Findings Introduction Sources Interesting FindingsFuture WorkConclusion Spain FC Barcelona Real Madrid Sevilla Valencia England Arsenal Chelsea Liverpool Manchester United Italy AC Milan AS Roma Internazionale Juventus
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6/10/2015MIS 580: Knowledge Management15 Ranking Analysis - Teams Objectives Process Basic Findings Introduction Sources Interesting Findings Observations: Consistent Team: FC Barcelona Rapid Improvement: Chelsea Future WorkConclusion
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6/10/2015MIS 580: Knowledge Management16 Probability Analysis Interesting Findings Objectives Process Basic Findings Introduction Sources Interesting FindingsFuture WorkConclusion
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6/10/2015MIS 580: Knowledge Management17 Technique: Naive Bayes Observations: Strength: 6 Teams Weakness: FC Barcelona Head-to-Head Probability Analysis Objectives Process Basic Findings Introduction Sources Interesting FindingsFuture WorkConclusion
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6/10/2015MIS 580: Knowledge Management18 Technique: Comparison of the signs of the difference between the win probability and the lose probability Matched signs – Correct Prediction Different signs – Incorrect Prediction Assumption Difference of zero (win-loss) favors both ways Accuracy: 80% Objectives Process Basic Findings Introduction Sources Interesting Findings TeamOpponent2003-072008Prediction AC MilanCeltic0.50OK AC MilanShakhtar Donetsk11OK ArsenalSparta Praha11OK AS RomaDinamo Kiev1NOT OK AS RomaManchester United0-0.75OK AS RomaReal Madrid-0.51NOT OK ChelseaValencia0.51OK FC BarcelonaCeltic0.51OK Manchester UnitedOlympique Lyon00.5OK Real MadridOlympiakos Piraeus0.5 OK Head-to-Head Probability Testing Future WorkConclusion
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6/10/2015MIS 580: Knowledge Management19 Home-Away Analysis Interesting Findings Objectives Process Basic Findings Introduction Sources Interesting FindingsFuture WorkConclusion
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6/10/2015MIS 580: Knowledge Management20 Technique: Mapped advantage on the basis of strength. Strength level decided by the difference in goals scored Very Strong – Win with a difference of 2 or more goals Strong – Win with a difference of 1 goal Weak – Draw or lose with a difference of 1 goal Very Weak – Lose with a difference of 2 or more goals Home – Away Analysis Objectives Process Basic Findings Introduction Sources Interesting FindingsFuture WorkConclusion
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6/10/2015MIS 580: Knowledge Management21 Observations: Strongest Home Team: AC Milan Weakest Home Team: Real Madrid Strongest Visiting Team: Liverpool Weakest Visiting Team: Chelsea Objectives Process Basic Findings Introduction Sources Interesting Findings Home – Away Analysis Future WorkConclusion
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6/10/2015MIS 580: Knowledge Management22 Winners Analysis Interesting Findings Objectives Process Basic Findings Introduction Sources Interesting FindingsFuture WorkConclusion
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6/10/2015MIS 580: Knowledge Management23 Technique: Assigned values to strength levels Aggregated the values of the strength levels Team Win Probability = (Aggregated Strength Value * Probability) / Number of Matches Objectives Process Basic Findings Introduction Sources Interesting Findings Prediction of Winners Future WorkConclusion
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6/10/2015MIS 580: Knowledge Management24 Dataset considered – 2003-2007 Accuracy: Home Win: 90% Away Win: 100% Objectives Process Basic Findings Introduction Sources Interesting FindingsFuture WorkConclusion Testing of Final Prediction
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6/10/2015MIS 580: Knowledge Management25 Good visiting teams have a better chance at the trophySports knowledge can be transferred from tacit to explicitField with a wide scope for researchGood career choice – Sports Consultant Conclusion Objectives Process Basic Findings Introduction Sources Interesting FindingsFuture WorkConclusion
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6/10/2015MIS 580: Knowledge Management26 Extended data setRound level analysisPlayer level analysisTeam strategy analysisConsideration of UEFA Cup Sports BettingSports Consulting Applications Future Work Applications & Future Work Objectives Process Basic Findings Introduction Sources Interesting FindingsFuture WorkConclusion
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6/10/2015MIS 580: Knowledge Management27 References Objectives Process Basic Findings Introduction Sources Interesting FindingsFuture WorkConclusion Papahristodoulou, Christos, "Team Performance in UEFA Champions League 2005- 06." Munich Personal RePEc Archive (2006) Unpublished, Paper #138 Barros, Carlos Pestana, Leach, Stephanie, “Performance evaluation of the English Premier Football League with data envelopment analysis.” Applied Economics Vol. 38 No. 12 (2006): 1449-1458 Websites: http://www.betinf.com/champ.htmhttp://www.betinf.com/champ.htm http://www.betstudy.com/soccer-stats/c/europe/uefa-champions-league/http://www.betstudy.com/soccer-stats/c/europe/uefa-champions-league/ http://en.uclpredictor.uefa.com/http://en.uclpredictor.uefa.com/ http://www.uefa.com/competitions/ucl/index.htmlhttp://www.uefa.com/competitions/ucl/index.html http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uefa_Champions_Leaguehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uefa_Champions_League http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes_theoremhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes_theorem http://www.xs4all.nl/~kassiesa/bert/uefa/http://www.xs4all.nl/~kassiesa/bert/uefa/ http://www.soccerbase.com/http://www.soccerbase.com/ http://europeancups.altervista.org/http://europeancups.altervista.org/
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6/10/2015MIS 580: Knowledge Management28 Thank You Objectives Process Basic Findings Introduction Sources Interesting FindingsFuture WorkConclusion Thank You Dr. Hsinchun Chen Yulei Zhang (Gavin) Yan Dang (Mandy)
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6/10/2015MIS 580: Knowledge Management29 Questions Objectives Process Basic Findings Introduction Sources Interesting FindingsFuture WorkConclusion
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6/10/2015MIS 580: Knowledge Management30 Head-to-Head Probability Analysis Objectives Process Basic Findings Introduction Sources Interesting FindingsFuture WorkConclusion
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6/10/2015MIS 580: Knowledge Management31 Head-to-Head Probability Analysis Objectives Process Basic Findings Introduction Sources Interesting FindingsFuture WorkConclusion FC Barcelona Vs Others Liverpool Vs Others
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