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FTA South East Asia Tariff removal in SEA (Presented by Sarfraz and Eric) Scenario 1 : China, India, Malaysia, Indonesia, Rest of SEA Scenario 1 : China, India, Malaysia, Indonesia, Rest of SEA Extension : restriction of FTA to priority commodities for India Extension : restriction of FTA to priority commodities for India Scenario 2: India, Malaysia, Indonesia, Rest of SEA (without China) Scenario 2: India, Malaysia, Indonesia, Rest of SEA (without China) Extension : restriction of FTA (without China) to priority commodities for India Extension : restriction of FTA (without China) to priority commodities for India
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FTA all commodities GDP, Exports and Welfare Variables FTA with China FTA no China GDP (qgdp) INDIA0.1090.138 CHINA-0.0020.0 Welfare (total) INDIA-198.4259.14 CHINA940.1-20.84 Volume of total exp (qxwreg) INDIA13.148.38 CHINA1.93-0.04 Volume of total import (qiwreg) INDIA15.7410.20 CHINA3.38-0.09
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Results for FTA Scenario 1 and 2 : for all commodities, Scenario 1 and 2 : for all commodities, - GDP : No change in GDP for China, whereas there is more gain for India if China is excluded from FTA - Exports : Increasing of export for India for all commodities in both scenario, however, less increasing (on average) if China is excluded from FTA - Welfare : the total welfare turns to be in favor of India when China is excluded from FTA For India, exclusion of China from FTA, looks more beneficiary for India
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Priority Commodities 1- PDR : Paddy rice 2- WHT : Wheat 3- SGR : Sugar 4- VOL : Vegetable oils and fats 5- PCR : Processed rice These crops are more beneficially for India on the base total volume of export Other commodities Manufacturing, Services, Livestock, and rest of agr. commodities
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FTA in priority commodities GDP, Exports and Welfare Variables Scenario 1 (priority commodities) Scenario 2 Scenario 2 (priority commodities) GDP (qgdp) INDIA0.1820.182 CHINA0.00.001 Exports (average, qxs) INDIA6.396.70 CHINA-0.277-0.459 Welfare (total) INDIA597.3595.21 CHINA7.338.58
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Results for FTA, restricted to priority commodities Extensions Extensions - The result is more interesting in case of India if FTA is restricted to the priority commodities - No change (or very little) in GDP, Export increasing rate (in term of average) and Welfare for India, whether China is in FTA or not - The result indicates that India turns out to get the highest total welfare
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