1. Effects of HIV/AIDS on Teacher Education Teacher Education in Developing Countries Dwaine Lee Nov. 26, 2003

2. Adults and children living with HIV/AIDS in 2002 SSA = 10% of world’s population; 70% of AIDS deaths UNAIDS/WHO, 2002 Western Europe 570 000 North Africa & Middle East 550 000 Sub- Saharan Africa 26.5 million Eastern Europe & Central Asia 1.2 million South & South-East Asia 6 million Australia & New Zealand 15 000 North America 980 000 Caribbean 440 000 Latin America 1.5 million East Asia & Pacific 1.2 million AIDS is responsible for 1 in 5 deaths in Africa = #1 cause of death UNAIDS, 2002 1/3 of those living with HIV/AIDS are aged 15-24 Kelly, 2000

3. Leading causes of death in Africa, 2000 Source: The World Health Report 2001, WHO 22.6 10.1 9.1 6.7 5.5 4.3 3.6 3.1 2.9 2.3 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 HIV/AIDSMalariaPerinatal conditions Tuber culosis Cerebro vascular disease Diarrhoeal disease Lower respiratory infections Measles Ischaemic Heart disease Maternal conditions % of Total In 1998, 200,000 Africans died due to conflict & war compared to 2.2 million to AIDS (Hunter & Williamson, 2000)

4. Highest rates in 20-39 age group: most productive members of society (including teachers) Low rate in 5-14 age group indicates “window of hope”

5. Worldwide Issue Beyond sub-Saharan Africa, more recent epidemics continue to grow— –China, –Indonesia, –Papua New Guinea, –Viet Nam, –several Central Asian Republics, –the Baltic States, and –North Africa India is “the biggest concern in Asia” with some districts reporting rates of 5% (Piot in NY Times, 2003).

7. The Impact of HIV/AIDS Demand: by affecting the number & characteristics of the school-age population Supply: through the death & absenteeism of teachers Quality: through interrupted schooling & inadequate teacher training

8. Malaney, 2000, p. 5)

9. Effect on Demand

10. Projected population structure with and without the AIDS epidemic, Botswana, 2020 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 020406080100120140020406080100120140 MalesFemales Deficits due to AIDS Projected population structure in 2020 Population (thousands) Age in years Source: US Census Bureau, World Population Profile 2000

11. “International evidence indicates that orphans tend to have lower enrollment rates than children with both parents alive and their disadvantage can be substantial…” (Abt Associates, 2002, p. xiv).

12. source: US Bureau of Census Despite the affects of HIV/AIDS, most countries will have more children in school in 2015 than today.

13. Effect on Supply

14. Supply The Zambian Ministry of Education reported that 2.2% of all teachers died in 1996. This was already more than the number of teachers produced by colleges that year, but it has been estimated that teacher death rates might triple by 2005 (LoveLife, 2000).

15. Supply The World Bank projected that 14,460 Tanzanian teachers would die by 2010, costing US$21 million in replacement training (Save the Children UK, 2001a).

16. Supply Projections for South Africa suggest that whereas teacher education production capacity is now 5,000 annually, at least 30,000 new teachers will be required to be trained each year by the end of the decade (Crouch 2001b).

17. Supply Teachers are also being lost to other sectors of government and to the private sector to replace personnel lost to AIDS (Swaziland Ministry of Education, 1999). Educator productivity is reported to be down and absenteeism up because of AIDS- related sickness, care for family members, and attendance at funerals.

18. Dzingai Mutumbuka, World Bank

19. Cost of HIV/AIDS to the Ministry of Education Cost item1990-2010 (million US $) ZambiaMozambique Extra Teacher training 5.410.8 Teacher absenteeism 16.243.3 Funerals1.6 Total23.254.1 Dzingai Mutumbuka, World Bank

20. Even more dramatically increased rate of expansion 0 25 50 75 100 1990200020202015 Is EFA Attainable? Example: Sub-Saharan African 1990: NER = 54% 44 million school age children in school 2000: NER = 57% 56 million school age children in school 2010: If NER stays at 57% 67 million school age children in school, requiring growth of 11 million 2010: If NER increases to75% 88 million school age children in school, requiring growth of 32 million 2015: To achieve NER of 100% 129 million school age children in school, requiring growth of 73 million millions Source: UNESCO data 2010 Dramatically different rate of expansion of access

21. Questions to Consider for Teacher Education Can enough teachers be recruited and trained? How can we keep teachers from leaving their posts for other sectors/opportunities? Will there be adequate numbers of supervisors, managers, planners, TTC staff? Is there adequate (any?) coverage for absent teachers? Is there a need for innovative supply models: distance education, non-formal approaches (BRAC, Escuela Nueva) What HIV/AIDS-related inputs need to be included in the teacher training curriculum?

22. The End Thank You