1. The electoral consequences of postal voting at the 2005 general election Colin Rallings & Michael Thrasher LGC Elections Centre, University of Plymouth Paper presented at the Elections, Opinion Polls and Parties Annual Conference, 9-11 September 2005, Essex University. Data collected and some analyses conducted for the Electoral Commission. Not for quotation without prior permission.

2. Outline u The nature of the postal vote electorate u The nature of the postal voter u Some aspects of the increase in postal voters

3. The postal electorate

4. The postal electorate in 2005 Postal ballots issued % electors with postal ballot Change 2001-5 UK*5,362,50112.1+8.1 GB*5,334,82112.4+8.4 England*4,739,75312.8+8.7 N. Ireland27,6802.4-0.2 Scotland312,0368.1+5.4 Wales283,03212.7+7.8 * Some or all data are missing for 35 constituencies in England and 1 in Wales

5. Correlates of postal electorate % prof/manager.048 % owner-occ.010 % renting-.006 % aged 18-24.036 % aged 65+.031 % degree.005 % no religion-.059 % no car-.009 % non-white-.064 % majority 2001.004

6. Regional aspects of postal electorate % electors with postal ballot Change 2001-5 East Midlands*13.5+9.7 Eastern12.1+7.3 London10.9+7.2 North East*19.3+13.6 North West*12.7+9.0 South East12.3+8.2 South West13.8+9.1 West Midlands10.7+7.4 Yorks & the Humber*14.2+10.5 * All-postal voting at 2004 European/local elections

7. Distribution of postal electorate by constituency

8. Effects of local election postal pilots 2002/3 all- postal pilots % electors with postal ballot Change 2001-5 Pilot18.3+13.3 No pilot11.4+7.6

9. Party incumbency and postal electorate 2001 winner% electors with postal ballot Change 2001-5 Labour12.5+8.6 Conservative11.6+7.6 LD12.6+8.4

10. 2001 majority and increase in postal electors % majority 2001change 2001-5 0 to 5+8.6 5 to 10+8.4 10 to 20+8.0 Over 20+8.7

11. The postal voter

12. The postal voter in 2005 % turnoutpostal votes as mean % of valid votes cast UK76.615.0 GB76.615.4 England76.516.0 Northern Ireland86.33.0 Scotland76.410.2 Wales78.215.6

13. Postal voters by English region * All-postal voting at 2004 European/local elections postal votes as % of valid votes cast East Midlands*16.7 Eastern14.3 London13.7 North East*25.1 North West*17.3 South East14.8 South West16.5 West Midlands13.3 Yorkshire & The Humber*18.6

14. Distribution of postal voters by constituency

15. All-postal pilots and postal voters 2002/3 all-postal pilotsPostal votes as % of valid votes cast Pilot23.8 No Pilot14.2

16. Party incumbency and postal voters 2001 winnerPostal votes as % of valid votes cast Labour15.7 Conservative13.9 LD15.2

17. Comparing postal and in-person turnout Mean % of postal voters casting valid vote Change 2001-5 Mean % of in- person voters casting valid vote Change 2001-5 GB76.4-3.259.3+1.2 England76.4-3.159.2+1.2 Scotland77.2-3.159.3+1.8 Wales75.0-3.660.7+0.1

18. Increases in postal votes and change in turnout % point increase in postal votes cast 2001-5 overall % point change in turnout since 2001 Less than 4 +1.3 4 to 6 +1.8 6 to 8 +2.2 8 to 10 +2.5 10 or more +2.4

19. Some aspects of increased postal voting

20. Comparing in-person and all-postal voting Staffordshire S. is excluded

21. Postal turnout higher than expected u Doncaster Central u Gosport u Cambridge

22. Postal turnout is lower than expected u Hull West and Hessle u Liverpool Garston u Solihull

23. A simple model of postal voter turnout Unstandardised Coefficients Standardised Coefficients Beta (Constant)46.68** (1.69) 2005 valid in person turnout0.51** (0.03).584 R 2 =0.34; standard errors in brackets; ** 0.01 level

24. Postal voting – the regional effect

25. Postal voting – the experiments effect

26. Modelling the 2005 postal vote turnout Unstandardised Coefficients Standardised Coefficients Beta (Constant)48.95** (2.71) 2005 valid in person turnout0.48** (0.04)0.56 pv experiments 2002-20031.61** (0.57)0.09 Compulsory pv3.31** (0.47)0.24 2001 majority shares-0.08** (0.02)-0.20 R 2 =0.42; standard errors in brackets; ** 0.01 level

27. Was the spread of postal voters political? Unstandardised Coefficients Standardised Coefficients Beta (Constant)7.34** (0.31) pv experiments 2002-20035.00** (0.50)0.38 Compulsory pv1.73** (0.41)0.17 2001 majority shares-0.002 (0.01)-0.005 Dependent variable is percentage point change in postal ballots issued as a percentage of total electorate R 2 =0.20; standard errors in brackets; ** 0.01 level

28. Did the increase in postal voters help Labour? Unstandardised Coefficients (Constant)-0.83 (0.62) pv experiments 2002-2003-1.12* (0.47) Party control of seat prior to 2005: Conservative -3.94** (0.59) Labour -5.58** (0.59) Change in party control 2001/5 -2.66** (0.58) 2001 majority shares-0.05** (0.01) Percentage points change in postal votes as % of total votes 0.09** (0.03) Dependent variable is percentage point change in Labour vote share 2001-5 Data are for England only; R 2 =0.28; standard errors in brackets; ** 0.05 level; * 0.01 level