1. Llad Phillips1 Jobs and Crime

2. Llad Phillips2 How best to Learn in a Lecture class That does not Have a Section? We Recommend Going to class. The questions On the exams Are from topics Discussed in Class. How much math does 160 require? 1.Descriptive Graphs 2. Analytical Graphs (exams) 3. Notation e.g OF=f(CR,SE,SV)

3. Llad Phillips3 Outline Seriousness Survey Seriousness Survey  What can we learn from the survey? Crime File Crime File  Victims  Jobs and Crime Jobs and Crime Jobs and Crime  Why do some people get involved with crime?

4. Llad Phillips4 Class Survey 2006 Scoring Ten Behaviors Scoring Ten Behaviors 61 responses 61 responses

5. Llad Phillips5 SERIOUSNESS SURVEY RATE THE SERIOUSNESS OF EACH OF THE FOLLOWING BEHAVIORS ON A SCALE FROM ZERO( LEAST SERIOUS) TO TEN( MOST SERIOUS): MEDIAN ‘06 ‘05 1. HOMICIDE _10 10__ 2. MASS POISONING ( e.g. TYLENOL) _ 10 8__ 3. FORCIBLE RAPE _ 9 9__ 4. ARSON: SET FIRE TO A GARAGE _ 7 7__ 5. SELLING HEROIN _ 7 6__ 6. AUTO THEFT _ 6 6__ 7. EMBEZZLEMENT OF $1,000 _ 5 4__ 8. PROSTITUTE IN A HOUSE OF PROSTITUTION _ 3 3__ 9. POSSESSION OF MARIJUANA _ 1 2__ 10. SNIFFING GLUE _ 2 1__

6. Llad Phillips6 Mode = 10, largest number of responses Median = 10, score of 31st person

7. Llad Phillips7 Mode = 10, largest number of responses Median = 10, score of 49 th person

8. Llad Phillips8 1 13 14 73

9. Llad Phillips9 Mode = 10 Median = 9

10. Llad Phillips10 Mode = 9 Median = 9

11. Llad Phillips11 Mode = 1 Median = 1

12. Llad Phillips12 Mode = 1 Median = 2

13. Llad Phillips13 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 23 31 27 10 7 4 4 5 2 0 0 0 5 15 20 25 30 35 Frequency Score Number of Responses Vs. Possession of Pot Score ‘02

14. Llad Phillips14 SERIOUSNESS SURVEY RATE THE SERIOUSNESS OF EACH OF THE FOLLOWING BEHAVIORS ON A SCALE FROM ZERO( LEAST SERIOUS) TO TEN( MOST SERIOUS): Minimum, Maximum 1. HOMICIDE _5,10 10 2. MASS POISONING ( e.g. TYLENOL) _0, 10 3. FORCIBLE RAPE _7,10 4. ARSON: SET FIRE TO A GARAGE _3, 10 5. SELLING HEROIN _0, 10 6. AUTO THEFT _2, 10 7. EMBEZZLEMENT OF $1,000 _1, 10 8. PROSTITUTE IN A HOUSE OF PROSTITUTION _0, 10 9. POSSESSION OF MARIJUANA _0, 10 10. SNIFFING GLUE _0, 8

15. Llad Phillips15 Center of the Scores Distribution Mode: most likely Mode: most likely Median: middle person Median: middle person Average: sum of scores divided by total number of people Average: sum of scores divided by total number of people

16. Llad Phillips16 Dispersion of Scores Distribution Measures of dispersion Measures of dispersion  Standard deviation  Inter-quartile range  Range: Maximum - Minimum

17. Llad Phillips17 Policy is easier Policy is more difficult

18. Llad Phillips18 Disagreement Versus Seriousness, 02 Arson Selling Heroin Auto Theft Embezzle Mass Poisoning Rape Homicide Prostitute Possess Pot Sniff Glue 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 024681012 Score Dispersion (Standard Deviation) Homicide 2004

19. Embezzlement Standard Deviation or Dispersion

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21. Llad Phillips21 Bureau of Justice Statistics, Report to the Nation The Alternative p.173 One more step: converting seriousness scores to a metric (years of sentence or Loss rate of $) The Economics of Crime Control, Ch. 4

22. Llad Phillips22 Types of Crime Motivation: self-interest, greed Motivation: self-interest, greed  Street Crimes: robbery, burglary, auto theft, larceny  White Collar: embezzlement, tax evasion, check fraud, telephone fraud  Status Offenses: runaway, truant, vagrant, beyond control of parents  Black Market: gambling, prostitution,drugs

23. Llad Phillips23 Types of Crime Motivation: Hate, Rage Motivation: Hate, Rage  Street Crimes: homicide, aggravated assault, rape  Crimes Against Public Order: vandalism, terrorism  Hate Crimes  Columbine High  James Byrd: dragging death in Texas  Jewish Community Center in Granada Hills

24. Llad Phillips24 Jobs and Crime

25. Llad Phillips25 Questions About Crime Does the Business Cycle Affect Crime Rates? Does the Business Cycle Affect Crime Rates? Does an Individual’s Life Cycle Affect Crime Rates? Does an Individual’s Life Cycle Affect Crime Rates? Why do some people live socially unproductive lives? Why do some people live socially unproductive lives?

26. Llad Phillips26 Two Points About Economic Conditions and Crime Relationship of Crime to the Business Cycle Relationship of Crime to the Business Cycle  Short Run: Business Cycle  Is Phil Cook wrong?  California: the misery index and crime  misery index = unemployment rate + inflation rate Relationship of Crime to the Life Cycle Relationship of Crime to the Life Cycle  Long Run  Investment in Education  Role of the Family

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29. Llad Phillips29 CA Crime Index(t) = a +b*Misery Index(t)

30. Llad Phillips30 2002 1952 1980 1954

34. Llad Phillips34 An Individual’s Life Cycle for a Socially Productive Life Learning over the life cycle Learning over the life cycle Accumulating earning power or human capital Accumulating earning power or human capital Earnings depend upon Earnings depend upon  ability  knowledge  work experience

35. Llad Phillips35 Productive Life Cycle Social Institution Family - PreSchool - School - College - Job - Retirement Function Learning: Accumulating Human Capital - Earning - Spending Age Line 0 4 6 18 23 65

36. Llad Phillips36 Accumulating Human Capital InflowOutflow Stock

37. Llad Phillips37 Accumulating Human Capital Stock Inflow + - Outflow Net Inflow

38. Llad Phillips38 Accumulating Human Capital Human Capital Learning + - Depreciation Investment

39. Llad Phillips39 Allocation of Your Time Human Capital Build Capital by Learning Use Capital for Earning

40. Llad Phillips40 Time Endowment 24 hours

41. Llad Phillips41 24 hours0 hours Leisure (learning)

42. Llad Phillips42 Allocation of Your Time Human Capital Build Capital by Learning Use Capital for Earning

43. Llad Phillips43 24 hours0 hours Leisure (learning) Earnings $480 Opportunities for trading leisure for earnings (income) at a rate, $20 per hour, determined by your stock of human capital $ 0

44. Llad Phillips44 Salaries by Education Level, CA Full Time* Workers *Full Time: >35 hrs/wk, >48 wks/yr.; Source: LA Times, 1-10-93

45. 24 hours0 hours Leisure (learning) Earnings $480 $ 0 $240 dropout college grad

46. Llad Phillips46 Economists Assume You Can make Comparisons For example: you can compare a high level of your income and a low level of your leisure with a low level of your income and a high level of your leisure For example: you can compare a high level of your income and a low level of your leisure with a low level of your income and a high level of your leisure

47. 24 hours0 hours Leisure (learning) Earnings $480 $ 0 Iso-Preference Curves: You value all points on a curve equally high low value high value

48. 24 hours0 hours Leisure (learning) Earnings $480 $ 0 high low value high value Optimum 15 hours of leisure $180 for 9 hrs of work

49. 24 hours0 hours Leisure (learning) Earnings $480 $ 0 high low value slope of the iso-preference curve through the 24 hour endowment is the lowest wage at which you are willing to work

50. 24 hours0 hours Leisure (learning) Earnings $480 $ 0 high low value slope of the iso-preference curve through the 24 hour endowment is the lowest wage at which you are willing to work $96 dropout is unwilling to work for $4/hr

51. Llad Phillips51 Participation in the Labor Force: Willing to look for work If your market wage exceeds your reservation wage If your market wage exceeds your reservation wage  college grad, @$20/hr, participates  the junior high dropout, @ $4/hr, does not We assumed the college grad and the dropout both have the same values for income and leisure We assumed the college grad and the dropout both have the same values for income and leisure Only their learning histories differ Only their learning histories differ

52. 24 hours0 hours Leisure (learning) Earnings $480 $ 0 high low value slope of the iso-preference curve through the 24 hour endowment is the lowest wage at which you are willing to work $96 dropout is unwilling to work for $4/hr

53. Llad Phillips53 Hazards to Personal Success Dropping out Dropping out Joining gangs Joining gangs Anti-social behavior Anti-social behavior

55. Llad Phillips55 Productive Life Cycle Social Institution Family - PreSchool - School - College - Job - Retirement Function Learning: Accumulating Human Capital - Earning - Spending Age Line 0 4 6 18 23 65

56. Legal Work or Illegal Work? Choice with Uncertain Outcomes Choice Legal work Illegal work

57. Legal Work or Illegal Work? Choice with Uncertain Outcomes Choice Legal work Illegal work Unemployed (fail) Employed (succeed) Apprehended (fail) Not Apprehended (succeed)

58. Legal Work or Illegal Work? Choice with Uncertain Outcomes Choice Legal work Illegal work Unemployed (fail) Employed (succeed) Apprehended (fail) Not Apprehended (succeed) 0.1 0.9 $0 $12,000/yr 0.2 0.8 $0 $14,000

59. Expected legal Income = 0.9*$12,000 = $10,800 Legal Work or Illegal Work? Choice with Uncertain Outcomes Choice Legal work Illegal work Unemployed (fail) Employed (succeed) Apprehended (fail) Not Apprehended (succeed) 0.1 0.9 $0 $12,000/yr 0.2 0.8 $0 $14,000/yr Expected illegal income = 0.8*$14,000 = $11,200

60. Expected legal Income = 0.95*$12,000 = $11,400 Legal Work or Illegal Work? Choice with Uncertain Outcomes Choice Legal work Illegal work Unemployed (fail) Employed (succeed) Apprehended (fail) Not Apprehended (succeed) 0.1 0.9 $0 $12,000/yr 0.2 0.8 $0 $14,000/yr Expected illegal income = 0.8*$14,000 = $11,200 0.05 0.95

61. Llad Phillips61 Social Measures to Reduce Crime Maintain a full-employment economy Maintain a full-employment economy

62. Expected legal Income = 0.9*$12,000 = $10,800 Legal Work or Illegal Work? Choice with Uncertain Outcomes Choice Legal work Illegal work Unemployed (fail) Employed (succeed) Apprehended (fail) Not Apprehended (succeed) 0.1 0.9 $0 $12,000/yr 0.2 0.8 $0 $14,000/yr Expected illegal income = 0.7*$14,000 = $9,800 0.3 0.7

63. Llad Phillips63 Social Measures to Reduce Crime Maintain an Effective Criminal Justice System Maintain an Effective Criminal Justice System  keep the probability of apprehension high

64. Expected legal Income = 0.9*$12,000 = $10,800 Legal Work or Illegal Work? Choice with Uncertain Outcomes Choice Legal work Illegal work Unemployed (fail) Employed (succeed) Apprehended (fail) Not Apprehended (succeed) 0.1 0.9 $0 $12,000/yr 0.2 0.8 -$3,000 (fine) $14,000/yr Expected illegal income = 0.8*$14,000 - 0.2*$3,000 = $10,600 $0

65. Llad Phillips65 Social Measures to Reduce Crime Punish the criminal Punish the criminal  make crime less attractive

66. Llad Phillips66 Social Measures to Reduce Crime Maintain a full-employment economy Maintain a full-employment economy Maintain an Effective Criminal Justice System Maintain an Effective Criminal Justice System  keep the probability of apprehension high Punish the criminal Punish the criminal  make crime less attractive

67. Llad Phillips67 Summary Your economic status affects your probable behavior: work or crime Your economic status affects your probable behavior: work or crime Earning power affects your probable behavior Earning power affects your probable behavior When you are are a young teen you need a parent or role model to motivate you to stay in school and keep learning When you are are a young teen you need a parent or role model to motivate you to stay in school and keep learning

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69. Llad Phillips69 2003

70. Llad Phillips70 Class Survey 2003 Scoring Ten Behaviors Scoring Ten Behaviors 113 Responses 113 Responses No two are the same No two are the same Two most similar responses Two most similar responses Two most different responses Two most different responses

71. Llad Phillips71 Similar Scorings

72. Llad Phillips72 Different Scorings

73. Llad Phillips73 2003

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75. Llad Phillips75 Mean Rating

76. Llad Phillips76 SERIOUSNESS SURVEY RATE THE SERIOUSNESS OF EACH OF THE FOLLOWING BEHAVIORS ON A SCALE FROM ZERO( LEAST SERIOUS) TO TEN( MOST SERIOUS): MEDIAN ‘03 ‘05 1. HOMICIDE _10 10__ 2. MASS POISONING ( e.g. TYLENOL) _ 9 8__ 3. FORCIBLE RAPE _ 9 9__ 4. ARSON: SET FIRE TO A GARAGE _ 7 7__ 5. SELLING HEROIN _ 6 6__ 6. AUTO THEFT _ 5.5 6__ 7. EMBEZZLEMENT OF $1,000 _ 4 4__ 8. PROSTITUTE IN A HOUSE OF PROSTITUTION _ 3 3__ 9. POSSESSION OF MARIJUANA _ 2 2__ 10. SNIFFING GLUE _ 1 1__

77. Llad Phillips77 Misery Index, California 1952-2003 -5.00 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 1950196019701980199020002010 year Rate unemployment rate inflation rate misery index

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