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Please Stand By John Thomas for Macro Millionaire Wednesday, March 14, 2010 The Webinar will begin at 12:00 pm EST
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The Mad Hedge Fund Trader Global Impact of the Japanese Earthquake and the huge trading opportunities it creates Emergency Strategy Review Profiting from disaster Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader March 14, 2011 www.madhedgefundtrader.com www.madhedgefundtrader.com
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The Collapse of the Japanese Economy The loss of the world’s third largest economy *Millions in Northern Japan are without food, water, and heat in freezing temperatures. Stores in most major cities have been cleaned out of food and gasoline. *Japan’s rail system has shut down. Tokyo subways have stopped running. No one can get to work. *Most of industrial Japan has shut down to count the dead *Severe power shortages mean rolling black out in the industrial heartland. No quick comeback for the economy. *Mass evacuation of expatriates fleeing a nuclear melt down is underway.
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Japanese Government Response *The BOJ has been ordered to “save Japan” *The largest intervention in the history of the foreign exchange markets *$186 billion of dollars bought, yen sold in the first hour *Could mark a 15 year top in the yen *Quantitative easing expanded to $500 billion *Ramping up the printing presses
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Macro Millionaire Performance February +3.98% March month to date First 14 weeks of Trading + 20.61% Versus 10.5% for the S&P500
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Portfolio Review Building More Aggressive Shorts 5 out of 6 positions will do well, and no. 6 (Yen) may turn Perfectly positioned to benefit from the current crisis Asset Class Breakdown Risk Adjusted Basis equities (1) -5.00% Volatility (2) 5.60% Yen (3) -26.00% bonds -5.00% Euro (4) -5.00% oil -2.50% total -37.90% Small is beautiful
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Our Japan Position stop loss at $14.85 = ¥79 $186 billion of BOJ Intervention in the first hour
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The Last Yen Peak Was After the 1995 Kobe Earthquake
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The Earthquake’s Global Impact The earthquake that is shaking financial markets around the world * Slower economic Growth world wide *A stock market crash in Japan *Flight to safety bid for bonds and the dollar *Sharp sell of in commodity prices. *Global electronics parts shortage *The “RISK OFF” trade is in play
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Equities *The world’s third largest economy is flipping from +2% quarterly growth to -3% *All company earnings forecasts have been rendered meaningless *No one had a giant destructive earthquake or a nuclear melt down in their budget for 2011 *”RISK OFF” = sell stock
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S & P 500 (SPY) the 50 day moving average is broken taking a run at the 200 day average
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Volatility (VIX) watch the higher lows and the higher highs
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Two Year Volatility still looks cheap
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Oil *Slower global growth brings less demand for oil *The Middle Eastern picture is calming *Supply glut in the US futures long in Chicago is 6X Oklahoma storage take delivery, or sell * Will Obama open the strategic petroleum reserve? This market the last two peaks in oil prices
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Oil (USO) 50 day moving average at $95 oil, 200 day at $90
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The Position You’re Glad You Don’t Have Japan Equity ETF (EWJ)
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Bonds *Flight to safety bid is on *Recovery of an oversold condition that has built up in the last six months *Profit taking on shorts by hedge funds *Head and shoulders bottom on the charts *Trading rally only the 20 year bear market in bonds has only just started, but will take a rest
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iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)
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Commodities *Slower economic growth means less demand for industrial commodities *Hedge fund profit taking on major long positions *Auto related commodities like platinum (PPLT) and Palladium (PALL) are especially hard hit.
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Copper ETF (CU)
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Palladium (PALL)
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Trade Sheet *Stocks-Keep your shorts, the earthquake will give us some downside juice *Bonds-Look for a rally and short volatility *Commodities- Selling off continues, earthquake delays recovery *Currencies-sell the yen and euro, flight to safety bid for dollar *Precious Metals- avoid, have run too far, possible short play setting up again *Volatility-Run your longs, still rising *Real estate-dieing a slow death
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Follow This Letter! *Buy and hold is dead, trade or die! Don’t rush into the market now, wait for the market to come to you *Now is the time to rely on a newsletter where the writer speaks Japanese and has 40 years of experience in Japan *Learn which long term trends will reassert themselves *Volatility will remain high. Learn how to maximize your gains while limiting your risk *Market timing is crucial, I will send email alerts on when to move *The black swans are coming *Know which instruments to trade
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Macro Millionaire Global Strategy Luncheons Buy tickets at www.madhedgefundtrader.comwww.madhedgefundtrader.com March 31, 2011 New York City, 12:00 noon April 28, 2011 Phoenix, Arizona
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European Strategy Luncheons April 4, 2011 London, England 12:00 noon April 8, 2011 Paris, France 12:00 noon
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To Access my Research Data Base Please Go to www.madhedgefundtrader.com.madhedgefundtrader.com
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