1. Do you know what it takes to manage global change wisely?

2. ?! EARTHSystem Analysis

3. Why do we need Earth System Analysis ?! […] there is no previous analogue for the current operation of the Earth System […]

4. Modus Operandi

5. terrestrial ecosystems marine ecosystems human dimensions atmosphere

6. terrestrial ecosystems marine ecosystems human dimensions atmosphere

7. terrestrial ecosystems marine ecosystems human dimensions atmosphere

8. terrestrial ecosystems marine ecosystems human dimensions atmosphere Do we know how good old earth is working now?

9. E S A To complex for a single mind, a single discipline, a single nation, a single interest. Thus… …inter-disciplinary …inter-nationational …inter-objective (balance of interests)

10. ESA  ESM

11. Limits to Growth – WORLD3 World3 – complex but basically simple Causal relationships between the earth‘s biological systems and human (economic) development It‘s all about the development of stocks, such as… …human population …industrial capital …environmental pollution …natural resources

12. WORLD3 is not about absolute figures… …it‘s about trends, causal relationships, feedback loops

13. World3 assumes… … unlimited Growth of… …population …capital  until the physical limit is reached

14. World3 Central question: What happens now?!

15. Population growth 1 time Earth‘s ecological capacity world population source: limits to growth – 30y update

16. Population growth 2 Earth‘s ecological capacity world population time source: limits to growth – 30y update

17. Population growth 3 Earth‘s ecological capacity world population time we are here source: limits to growth – 30y update

18. Population growth 4 Earth‘s ecological capacity world population time we are here source: limits to growth – 30y update

20. Safe landing ?! source: limits to growth – 30y update

21. Has anything changed (because of WORLD3) ?!

22. source: http://www.igbp.net/page.php?pid=184http://www.igbp.net/page.php?pid=184

23. IGBP Objective To describe and understand Earth System dynamics focusing on the interactive biological, chemical and physical processes the changes that are occurring in these dynamics and the role of human activities in these changes

24. IGBP II Structure source: http://www.igbp.net/page.php?pid=184

25. Earth System Science Partnership Health START source: http://www.igbp.net/page.php?pid=184

27. Integrated Regional Studies assess the influence of regional processes on Earth System functioning (and vice-versa) be integrative (natural and social sciences, all components of the Earth System, planning to synthesis) contribute sound scientific understanding in support of sustainable development in the region be scientifically-driven by scientists in the region, with global collaboration

28. Large Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA) 80 research groups - 600 scientists How does Amazonia function as a regional entity (e.g., natural cycles of water, energy, aerosols, carbon, nutrient and trace-gases)? How will changes in land use and climate affect the biological, chemical and physical functioning of Amazonia, including its sustainability and influence on global climate? source: http://www.igbp.net/page.php?pid=184

29. Take home message Earth system analyses/models show trends, not figures. ESA can be used as an early warning system ESM should be used as a political tool to design rough national and international strategies for decades to come IRS should be used a regional planning tool for sustainable development wherever available

30. For more information on ESA, ESM and global change research, visit: http://www.igbp.net

31. Comments for Lars Schmidt from Manfred Stock 1.To be finished.....