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Weather Discussion 5/17/2011. Forecast Competition.

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Presentation on theme: "Weather Discussion 5/17/2011. Forecast Competition."— Presentation transcript:

1 Weather Discussion 5/17/2011

2 Forecast Competition

3

4

5 Amazing Snowpack

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7 Squaw Valley

8 The Patterns

9 http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/glbci r.quick.shtml http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/glbci r.quick.shtml

10 The Danger: A Rapid Warmup

11 June 1948

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13 Big Weekend Event

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15 Big Rainfall Event over the NW Weekend Totals (West Side) – Puyallup: 2.00" – North Bend: 1.96" – Federal Way: 1.95” – Sea Tac 1.79 – Olympia: 1.74" – Eatonville: 1.65" – Auburn: 1.60" – Issaquah: 1.59" – Tacoma: 1.54" – Gig Harbor: 1.52" – Bainbridge Isl: 1.50" – Maple Valley: 1.48" – Bellevue: 1.42" – Renton: 1.36" – Kent: 1.34" – Covington: 1.33" – Bothell: 1.31" – Mercer Island: 1.25" – Everett: 1.15" – Redmond: 1.11" – Sequim: 1.09" – Shoreline: 0.98"

16 Lots of Daily Records Set on Saturday and Sunday RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA 127 AM PDT SUN MAY 15 2011 A RECORD RAINFALL OF 0.97 INCHES WAS SET AT SEATTLE-TACOMA WA AIRPORT YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 0.54 SET IN 2001. A RECORD RAINFALL OF 0.67 INCHES WAS SET AT SEATTLE WA WFO YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 0.34 SET IN 2001. A RECORD RAINFALL OF 0.93 INCHES WAS SET AT OLYMPIA WA AIRPORT YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 0.83 SET IN 2001. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE, WA 623 PM PDT SUN MAY 15 2011 A RECORD RAINFALL OF 0.81 INCHES WAS SET AT SEATTLE-TACOMA WA AIRPORT TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 0.56 SET IN 2001.

17 East Side RECORD REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA 117 AM PDT SUN MAY 15 2011 THE PRECIPITATION AT WENATCHEE AIRPORT IN THE PAST 24 HOURS WAS 0.61 INCHES. THIS SETS THE RECORD FOR THE MOST PRECIPITATION FOR THIS DATE. THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 0.16 INCHES WAS SET IN 1980. RECORDS HAVE BEEN KEPT AT THIS SITE SINCE 1959. THE PRECIPITATION AT EPHRATA IN THE PAST 24 HOURS WAS 0.53 INCHES. THIS SETS THE RECORD FOR THE MOST PRECIPITATION FOR THIS DATE. THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 0.29 INCHES WAS SET IN 1978. RECORDS HAVE BEEN KEPT AT THIS SITE SINCE 1948. RECORD REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA 118 AM PDT MON MAY 16 2011 THE PRECIPITATION AT WENATCHEE AIRPORT IN THE PAST 24 HOURS WAS 0.84 INCHES. THIS SETS THE RECORD FOR THE MOST PRECIPITATION FOR THIS DATE. THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 0.08 INCHES WAS SET IN 2005. RECORDS HAVE BEEN KEPT AT THIS SITE SINCE 1959. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR 138 AM PDT MNN MAY 16 2011...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL SET AT PENDLETON OREGON... A RECORD RAINFALL OF 0.72 INCH WAS SET AT PENDLETON OR YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 0.7 SET IN 1894. STATION PREVIOUS NEW RECORDS RECORD/YEAR RECORD BEGAN PENDLETON OR 0.7 / 1894 0.72 1890

18 Big Rainfall Event Last Weekend: Excellent Forecasts and Great Predictability Dmodeldt: http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?mm5d2_wa_pcp24+v2011051600///+-st UWME Ensemble System http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ens/view_wrf.cgi 1312 initializationProb Probcast: Bayesian Model Averaging post-processing of UWME http://www.probcast.com/ NAEFS: http://www.meteo.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/EPSgrams_e.html

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20 Probcast: Sat Night: Prob of Precip

21 Quite a bit of lightning on the east side http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/lo ops/wxloop.cgi?ltnw+/4d/ http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/lo ops/wxloop.cgi?ltnw+/4d/

22 The Forecast http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/glbci r.quick.shtml http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/glbci r.quick.shtml


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