1. Intro

2. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review2 Preliminary Design Review The Pan-STARRS Moving Object Processing System

3. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review3 PDR Purpose (from the charge): Ensure that the preliminary design meets the requirements as specified in the PS-1 MOPS SRS Ensure that the development plan will enable schedules and budgets to be maintained Ensure that integration and testing procedures have been considered Ensure that risk mitigation plans have been developed for identified potential risks

4. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review4 Schedule 09:00Intro & Requirements OverviewRJ Top-Level MOPS architectureRJ 10:30Break 10:45AlgorithmsRJ & TG Software DesignLD & RJ 12:30Lunch 1:30Hardware DesignLD & JH Status & Development PlanRJ 3:30Break 3:45Risk Assessment & ConclusionRJ

5. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review5 MOPS Overview Identify known objects Discover new objects Derive observable parameters Catalogue objects

6. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review6 MOPS Partners Carnegie Mellon University, Robotics Institute AUTON Laboratory (Kubica) Jet Propulsion Lab (JPL) (Chesley) Minor Planet Center (MPC) (Spahr) Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) (Heasley) University of Helsinki (Kaasalainen) University of Pisa (Milani)

7. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review7 MOPS Timeline 2003 MarHire Manager (Robert Jedicke) 2004 AprOrbit Determination & Ephemeris Software Trade study (PSDC-500-001 2004 JulSoftware Requirements Specifications (PSDC-530-001) 2004 JulSystem Concept Definition (SCD) 2004 AugSoftware Requirements Review (SRR) 2004 SepNEO IOD Studies (PSDC-500-002) 2004 NovSolar System Survey Simulations (PSDC-500-003) 2004 NovHire Post-Doc (Tommy Grav) 2004 DecHire SW Engineer (Larry Denneau) 2005 AprSolar System Model (PSDC-500-004) 2005 AprAlgorithm Design Description (PSDC-530-002) 2005 AprSoftware Design Description (PSDC-530-003) 2005 MayPreliminary Design Review (PDR)

8. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review8 Top Level Requirements what does MOPS need to do how well does it need to do it focus on reqs driving design

9. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review9 Requirements Overview Top Level Requirements Selected Derived Requirements (especially modifications from SRR) External Interface Requirements Other important reqs

10. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review10 Top Level Requirements 9.2.1MOPS shall create and maintain a data collection of detections and object parameters (e.g., orbit elements, absolute magnitudes) for >90% of the PHOs that reach R=24 for  12 consecutive days during the course of PS operations. (from PSDC-250-002 – PS-4 System Concept Definition) Above R=24 all the time for  12 days

11. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review11 Top Level Requirements 9.2.2 MOPS shall create and maintain a data collection (DC) of detections and object parameters (e.g., orbit elements, absolute magnitudes) for >80% (TBR) of the members that reach R=24 for  12 consecutive days within each class of solar system object (Main Belt, Trojan, Centaur, TNO, Comet, etc, except NEO and PHO) during the course of PS operations. (from PSDC-250-002 – PS-4 System Concept Definition)

12. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review12 Top Level Requirements 9.2.3 MOPS shall calculate the efficiency and false-positive rates for detection, attributing, linking, orbit identification, etc., for solar system objects as a function of (at minimum) semi-major axis, eccentricity, inclination, absolute magnitude, position with respect to opposition and galactic latitude. (from PSDC-250-002 – PS-4 System Concept Definition)

13. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review13 Top Level Requirements 9.2.4Data products created by MOPS shall be published to the PS Published Science Products Subsystem (PSPS). (from PSDC-250-002 – PS-4 System Concept Definition)

14. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review14 Top Level Requirements Highlights >90% of the PHOs that reach R=24 for  12 consecutive days >80% of the members of each of the other populations (MB,CEN,TNO,etc.) that reach R=24 for  12 calculate efficiency and false-positive rates Data products published to the PSPS. (from PSDC-250-002 – PS-4 System Concept Definition)

15. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review15 Selected Derived Requirements Supplementary requirements on MOPS and other Pan-STARRS sub- systems in order to meet primary requirements

16. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review16 Terminology Review: Detections, Tracklets, Tracks & Orbits Detection –A statistically significant collection of pixels after image convolution with a shape kernel Tracklet –A set of  2 detections that may be observations of the same object Track –A set of  2 tracklets that may be observations of the same object Orbit –A six parameter representation of the heliocentric path of an object

17. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review17 Terminology Review: Detections, Tracklets, Tracks & Orbits

18. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review18 Terminology Review: SOT, HC, LC, DC, Single Occurrence Transient = SOT –A detection that is not at the same position as any other known stationary object in the past 30 (TBR) days High Confidence Detection –A detection that has a high probability of being a real object (~>5  ) Low Confidence Detection –A detection that has a high probability of being a real object (~>5  ) Data Collection = DC –A generalized database

19. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review19 Terminology Review: Opposition, Sweet-Spots Evening Sweet Spot Morning Sweet SpotOpposition

20. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review20 Terminology Review: Observing Cycle Observing Cycle = OC –Integer number incrementing 12:00pm HST on day of full moon Synthetic Object –An artificial object with orbital and shape parameters Derived Object –A synthetic or real object and its parameters derived from observations

21. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review21 Selected Derived Requirements (from PSDC-530-001-03 – MOPS Software Requirements Specification) 3.2.2.1 Daily 15-body ephemerides The MOPS shall be capable of determining the astrometric location and apparent magnitude (to a precision equal to or exceeding the astrometric and photometric precision of the PS system) of 10 8 solar system objects for each day of the survey and provide error estimates on each value.

22. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review22 Selected Derived Requirements (from PSDC-530-001-03 – MOPS Software Requirements Specification) 3.2.3.1 Attribution efficiency The MOPS shall be >99% efficient at linking ≥ 2 detections within the low confidence (LC) SOT DC of a known moving object on the same night to the known orbit when the estimated error in the location is <15".

23. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review23 Selected Derived Requirements (from PSDC-530-001-03 – MOPS Software Requirements Specification) 3.2.3.3 Intra-lunation linking efficiency The MOPS shall meet the following minimum efficiency requirements at identifying multiple detections of the same unknown object detected on at least 3 nights within a lunation for different classes of solar system objects: Object TypeMinimum Efficiency PHO95% MB98% KBO99%

24. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review24 Selected Derived Requirements (from PSDC-530-001-03 – MOPS Software Requirements Specification) 3.2.3.5 Orbit identification efficiency The MOPS shall be >98% efficient at linking intra-lunation short-arc orbits of at least 10 days to other intra-lunation short-arc orbits of at least 10 days for the same object observed in other lunations or apparitions.

25. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review25 Selected Derived Requirements (from PSDC-530-001-03 – MOPS Software Requirements Specification) 3.2.3.7 Low Confidence SOT False Detections The MOPS shall meet the stated efficiency and accuracy requirements (3.2.3.1-3.2.3.6) when the false detection rate for LC SOTs is  210 5 /deg 2. 3.2.3.8 High Confidence SOT False Detections The MOPS shall meet the stated efficiency and accuracy requirements (3.2.3.1-3.2.3.6) when the false detection rate for HC SOTs is  210 2 /deg 2.

26. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review26 External Interfaces

27. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review27 Selected External Interface Reqs (from PSDC-530-001-03 – MOPS Software Requirements Specification)

28. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review28 Selected External Interface Reqs (from PSDC-530-001-03 – MOPS Software Requirements Specification)

29. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review29 Selected External Interface Reqs (from PSDC-530-001-03 – MOPS Software Requirements Specification)

30. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review30 Selected External Interface Reqs (from PSDC-530-001-03 – MOPS Software Requirements Specification)

31. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review31 Selected External Interface Reqs (from PSDC-530-001-03 – MOPS Software Requirements Specification)

32. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review32 Selected External Interface Reqs (from PSDC-530-001-03 – MOPS Software Requirements Specification)

33. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review33 Selected External Interface Reqs (from PSDC-530-001-03 – MOPS Software Requirements Specification)

34. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review34 Selected External Interface Reqs (from PSDC-530-001-03 – MOPS Software Requirements Specification)

35. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review35 Selected External Interface Reqs (from PSDC-530-001-03 – MOPS Software Requirements Specification)

36. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review36 Other Important Requirements Supplementary requirements on other Pan-STARRS sub-systems in order that MOPS may meet its primary requirements

37. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review37 Other Important Requirements (from PSDC-530-001-03 – MOPS Software Requirements Specification) 3.10.1.1.2 Efficiency parameterization The MOPS requires a measure of the detection efficiency (3.10.1.1.1) in each image for identifying SOTs (asteroids and comets) as a function of their magnitude and rate of motion.

38. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review38 Other Important Requirements (from PSDC-530-001-03 – MOPS Software Requirements Specification) 3.10.1.2.1Nearly stationary moving objects The search algorithm for single occurrence detections of moving objects with a stellar stationary PSF (e.g. ASTEROIDS ) in PS-1 images shall have a detection efficiency (3.10.1.1.1) of >99% efficient for R  24 magnitude detections moving at <1 o /day. 3.10.1.2.2Rapidly moving objects The search algorithm for single occurrence detections of moving objects with a stellar stationary PSF (e.g. ASTEROIDS ) in PS-1 images shall have a detection efficiency (3.10.1.1.1) of >98% for R  24 magnitude detections moving at  1 o /day and <5 o /day.

39. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review39 Other Important Requirements (from PSDC-530-001-03 – MOPS Software Requirements Specification) 3.10.1.3.1 Nearly stationary moving objects The search algorithm for single occurrence detections of moving objects with a non-stellar stationary PSF (e.g. COMETS ) in PS-1 images shall have a detection efficiency (3.10.1.1.1) of >98% for R  24 magnitude detections moving at <1 o /day. 13.10.1.3.2 Rapidly moving objects The search algorithm for single occurrence detections of moving objects with a non-stellar stationary PSF (e.g. COMETS ) in PS-1 images shall have a detection efficiency (3.10.1.1.1) of >95% efficient for R  24 magnitude detections moving at  1 o /day and <5 o /day.

40. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review40 Other Important Requirements (from PSDC-530-001-03 – MOPS Software Requirements Specification) 3.10.1.5 Astrometric accuracy Astrometry of moving objects reported to the MOPS shall be no worse than 150% of the accuracy for stationary objects of the same integrated flux. 3.10.1.7 Photometric accuracy Solar system object photometry reported to the MOPS shall be no worse than 150% of the accuracy for stationary objects of the same integrated flux.

41. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review41 Unlisted Important Requirement N.N.NScanning Mode All PS survey fields shall be acquired as two pairs of images separated by a TTI±50%.

42. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review42 Top-Level MOPS Architecture Designed to meet MOPS requirements Designed to determine if MOPS meets requirements

43. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review43 Top-Level MOPS Architecture

44. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review44 Top-Level MOPS Architecture

45. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review45 Top-Level MOPS Architecture

46. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review46 Algorithms - Overview Necessary and sufficient algorithms so that MOPS may meet its primary requirements

47. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review47 Algorithms - Overview PSDC-500-003 ‘The TAO of MOPS’ –Solar System Survey Simulator (SSSS) PSDC-500-004 ‘The MOPS Solar System Model’ –Solar System Model (SSM) PSDC-530-002 ‘Algorithm Design Description’ –MOPS Algorithms (ADD)

48. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review48 Algorithms – SS Survey Simulator NOT necessary to MOPS function critical for MOPS testing and preliminary design critical for preliminary determination of Pan-STARRS solar system surveying strategy to meet primary requirements

49. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review49 Algorithms – SS Survey Simulator Realistic simulated surveying of opposition and sweet-spot fields Define opposition-centric ecliptic field locations and let scheduler schedule images on each night ‘simple’ weather model –Random 25% of entire nights are not usable

50. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review50 Algorithms – SS Survey Simulator TAO ( Tools for Automated Observing ) http://pan-starrs.ifa.hawaii.edu/project/MOPS/tao.html Efficiently schedules observations of fields subject to constraints on: –Number of images of each field (2) –Minimum survey altitude (20 o ) –Moon avoidance angle (45 o ) –Exposure time (30s) –Maximum Sun altitude (-15 o ) –Dome slew rate (5 o /s) –telescope slew rate (5 o /s) –Telescope settle time (0s) –Readout time (5s)

51. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review51 Algorithms – SS Survey Simulator

52. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review52 Algorithms – SS Survey Simulator

53. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review53 Algorithms – SS Survey Simulator Opposition 660 fields ~4,360 deg 2 Evening/Morning sweet-spots 84 fields each ~550 deg 2 each TOTAL 828 fields ~5,460 deg 2 828 fields  2 visits/night  3(4) nights/OC  40s/visit = 55(74) hours/OC = 6(8) nights/OC Ecliptic Longitude w.r.t. Opposition Ecliptic Latitude

54. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review54 Algorithms – SS Survey Simulator

55. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review55 Algorithms – SS Survey Simulator TAO schedules fields on a single night MOPS requires coordinated surveying within a lunation  develop wrapper Perl script to handle ‘weather’ and multi-night requirements

56. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review56 Algorithms – SS Survey Simulator four separate regions: –2 sweet spots –'high‘ and 'low' opposition region all surveying takes place between -8 and +8 days from new moon each (moving) field is visited 3 times per lunation minimum time between re-visits to the same region is 4 nights to avoid the crescent moon –evening sweet spot must be completed by day +4 wrt new moon –morning sweet spot must start after day -3 wrt new moon

57. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review57 Algorithms – SS Survey Simulator sweet spots are given higher priority than opposition regions high opposition region has higher priority than the low region. the two sweet spots may be scheduled on the same night but if a sweet spot is scheduled no opposition region can be covered only one of the opposition regions may be covered on any night

58. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review58 Algorithms – SS Survey Simulator

59. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review59 Algorithms – SS Survey Simulator We will test effect of different survey strategies on meeting MOPS requirements: –Regions Opp only, SS only and ALL –TTI 15min and 30min –Altitude surveying constraints (20 o, 30 o, 42 o ) –nights/region (each night is  2 visits) 3 or 4

60. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review60 Algorithms – SS Survey Simulator

61. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review61 Algorithms – SS Survey Simulator

62. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review62 Algorithms – SS Survey Simulator Evening SSOppositionMorning SS

63. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review63 Algorithms – SS Survey Simulator 53371-57021-multi-ss-o 53371-57021-multi-ss-o : 10 year sweet-spot and opposition survey for 2005-2014 (53371 < MJD < 57021). 53371-57021-multi-o 53371-57021-multi-o : 10 year opposition-only survey for 2005-2014 (53371 < MJD < 57021). 53371-57021-multi-ss 53371-57021-multi-ss : 10 year sweet-spot-only survey for 2005-2014 (53371 < MJD < 57021). 53371-57021-multi-ss-o-4-3 53371-57021-multi-ss-o-4-3 : 10 year sweet-spot and opposition survey for 2005-2014 (53371 < MJD < 57021) where the region is covered 4 times within each lunation and the minimum time between repeats is three days. 53371-57021-multi-o-4-3 53371-57021-multi-o-4-3 : 10 year opposition-only survey for 2005-2014 (53371 < MJD < 57021) where the region is covered 4 times within each lunation and the minimum time between repeats is three days. 53371-57021-multi-ss-4-3 53371-57021-multi-ss-4-3 : 10 year sweet-spot-only survey for 2005-2014 (53371 < MJD < 57021) where the region is covered 4 times within each lunation and the minimum time between repeats is three days. 10 Year Simulations

64. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review64 Algorithms – Solar System Model Integral and essential element of MOPS Critical for development

65. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review65 Algorithms – Solar System Model To test MOPS performance we require a realistic model of the solar system’s small bodies Test system before data becomes available Run SSM through the MOPS in parallel with the real data Verify how well we meet requirements

66. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review66 Algorithms – Solar System Model Measure real-time efficiency of individual components –FindTracklets –LinkTracklets –Orbit Determination –Orbit Identification –Orbit Contamination

67. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review67 Algorithms – Solar System Model All asteroid and comet types Near Earth Objects (NEO) including IEOs Main Belt Objects (MBO) Trojans (TRO) for all planets Centaurs (CEN) Trans-Neptunian Objects (TNO) Scattered Disk Objects (SDO) Short Period Comets (SPC) Long Period Comets (LPC) Oort Cloud Objects (OCO) Extreme objects (EXO)

68. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review68 Algorithms – Solar System Model Synthetic model must match real distribution of all observable objects detectable by Pan-STARRS  orbit and size distribution  shape, rotation periods, pole orientations + ‘unusual’ orbits  e.g. hyperbolic interstellar, retrograde main belt, distant Earths, …

69. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review69 Algorithms – Solar System Model Near Earth Objects (NEO) including IEOs ‘Bottke Model’ + Rabinowitz 4 dimensional (a,e,i,H) From 5 source regions

70. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review70 Algorithms – Solar System Model Near Earth Objects (NEO) including IEOs

71. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review71 Algorithms – Solar System Model Near Earth Objects (NEO) including IEOs

72. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review72 Algorithms – Solar System Model Main Belt Objects (MBO) Complete to H~14.5

73. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review73 Algorithms – Solar System Model Main Belt Objects (MBO) Highest statistics population Correlations between orbital elements  Difficult to model

74. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review74 Algorithms – Solar System Model Main Belt Objects (MBO)

75. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review75 Algorithms – Solar System Model Main Belt Objects (MBO) Angular element distributions

76. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review76 Algorithms – Solar System Model Main Belt Objects (MBO) Angular element correlations

77. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review77 Algorithms – Solar System Model Main Belt Objects (MBO) Algorithm: 10 7 objects

78. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review78 Algorithms – Solar System Model Main Belt Objects (MBO)

79. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review79 Algorithms – Solar System Model Main Belt Objects (MBO)

80. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review80 Algorithms – Solar System Model Trojans (TRO) for all planets NOT bias corrected

81. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review81 Algorithms – Solar System Model Trojans (TRO) for all planets NOT bias corrected

82. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review82 Algorithms – Solar System Model Trojans (TRO) for all planets Semi-major axis, eccentricity, inclination, mean anomaly and longitude of perihelion were randomly generated using the distributions given in table \ref{tab.trojan.fits}. The longitude of the node was randomly generated in the range [0 o,360 o ) The argument of perihelion was calculated. An apparent magnitude was selected using the distribution given in Eq. \ref{eq.trojan.mag.fit} and assumed to be the apparent magnitude at perihelion. The absolute magnitude was calculated. repeat till 160,000 objects were generated in each trojan cloud.

83. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review83 Algorithms – Solar System Model Centaurs (CEN)

84. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review84 Algorithms – Solar System Model Centaurs (CEN)

85. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review85 Algorithms – Solar System Model Centaurs (CEN) Bin the normalized (a,e) distribution into (1000,1000) bins. Determine the fraction, $f(a,e)$, of the Centaur population in the bin. Determine the maximum possible absolute magnitude (H max ) that an object at this perihelion distance, p=a(1-e), can have and still be above V=24.5. Determine the number, N(a,e,H max ), of Centaurs with H< H max in the (a,e) bin. For each of the N(a,e,H max ) Centaurs: –Generate a semi-major axis and eccentricity randomly within the bin. –Generate an inclination according to the model –Generate an absolute magnitude distributed like 10 0.61H. –Generate the three orbital orientation angular elements randomly in the range [0,360).

86. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review86 Algorithms – Solar System Model Centaurs (CEN)

87. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review87 Algorithms – Solar System Model Trans-Neptunian Objects (TNO) we generate a set of orbits that are the results of assumed dynamical processes rather than attempting to model a poorly known population model the migration of the outer solar system into a near planar disk of small bodies started with ~10,000 objects in a disk from 15-50 AU. Number density falls like a -2 slightly excited eccentricities of 0.,0.025,0.05 i=0 o outer planets started at a ~ 5.4,8.5,16.2,23.1 AU and run for 10 8 years. forced migration of ~ -0.15, 1.0, 3.0, 7.0 AU 5M years synthetic objects for our solar system model are time snapshots of the surviving objects corrected for orbital position w.r.t. Neptune.

88. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review88 Algorithms – Solar System Model Trans-Neptunian Objects (TNO)

89. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review89 Algorithms – Solar System Model Trans-Neptunian Objects (TNO)

90. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review90 Algorithms – Solar System Model Scattered Disk Objects (SDO) Randomly pick perihelion distance from the bias-corrected distribution in the range [27,45] AU. Randomly pick the eccentricity from the bias-corrected distribution in the range [0.2,1.) Calculate the semi-major axis and if a>500 AU re-pick q and e. Randomly pick the inclination from the bias-corrected distn in the range [0 o,90 o ] AU. Randomly generate the three orbital angles in the range [0 o,360 o ] Randomly generate the apparent magnitude from the observed distribution Calculate the absolute magnitude assuming the object is at perihelion Calculate the apparent magnitudes at the current epoch and once per year for the following 10 years. If the apparent magnitude becomes brighter than m=24.5 the object is observable by Pan-STARRS and included in the synthetic population. Repeat the procedure until a total of 20,158 objects are generated in the synthetic population

91. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review91 Algorithms – Solar System Model Scattered Disk Objects (SDO) Rough bias correction KNOWN DEBIASED FIT SYNTHETIC

92. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review92 Algorithms – Solar System Model Scattered Disk Objects (SDO) Rough bias correction KNOWN DEBIASED FIT SYNTHETIC

93. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review93 Algorithms – Solar System Model Short Period Comets (SPC) & Long Period Comets (LPC) NOT bias corrected Synthetic (q,e,i) created from fit to observed (q,e,i) Angles generated randomly N(>R) ~ e 0.04(R-24.5) Test if object becomes visible to Pan-STARRS in 10 years Repeat till 10,000 objects are generated

94. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review94 Algorithms – Solar System Model Short Period Comets (SPC) KNOWN FIT SYNTHETIC

95. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review95 Algorithms – Solar System Model Long Period Comets (LPC) KNOWN FIT SYNTHETIC

96. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review96 Algorithms – Solar System Model Extreme objects (EXO) Grid objects (e.q. evenly spaced objects in an a,e,i grid). Oort cloud objects and giant distant planets Extended inner earth objects Retrograde main belt objects Interstellar interlopers To be implemented

97. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review97 Algorithms – Solar System Model Shapes, Rotation periods & poles Still TBD but…  We have H for each synthetic object  Generate albedo  Determine size  Generate matching triaxial ellipsoids  Generate pole direction  Generate rotation period

98. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review98 Algorithms – Solar System Model Summary: To develop AND test MOPS performance we require a realistic model of the solar system’s small bodies Test system before data becomes available Run SSM through the MOPS in parallel with the real data Verify how well we meet requirements

99. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review99 Algorithms – ADD Other algorithms necessary for MOPS to meet its requirements

100. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review100 Algorithms - ADD Algorithm Design Description (ADD) –Multiple hypothesis testing –kd-trees –Initial Orbit Determination (IOD) –Differential Orbit Determination (OD) –Ephemeris Generation –Shape Modelling –Photometric Models

101. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review101 Algorithms - ADD Multiple Hypothesis Testing A combinatoric problem in which many different possible hypotheses must be tested for consistency with a model –Linking detections (FindTracklets) –Linking tracklets (LinkTracklets) –Field detections (FieldProximity) –Orbit identification (OrbitProximity)

102. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review102 Algorithms - ADD Multiple Hypothesis Testing

103. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review103 Algorithms - ADD kd-trees The kd-tree algorithm may be thought of as a traditional binary search extended to a k-dimensional space (hence the name). It dramatically reduces the number of computations, and therefore speeds the search time, for an entry in a k-d table meeting specified requirements. The algorithm will be employed at multiple stages within MOPS processing

104. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review104 Algorithms - ADD

105. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review105 Algorithms - FieldProximity Given: coarse UT 0h ephemerides for several nights and fields acquired on a single night Want: which objects are in which fields, within some slop radius Brute force: for each field (up to 1000), interpolate every orbit and calculate which ones intersect the field+slop radius KD-Tree: create a RA/DEC/time index for the field locations, and for each orbit, traverse the tree to find nearby fields

106. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review106 Algorithms - FindTracklets Given: 3000 HC detections in a field Want: pairs/tuples of close detections in time/space Brute force: combinatorically find all pairs of “close objects” in time and space among thousands of detections KD-Tree: create a RA/DEC/time index of detection locations, and search tree for close detections

107. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review107 Algorithms - LinkTracklets Given: many thousands of tracklets from three nights Want: all viable combinations of tracklets that are viable tracks (linear or quadratic in sky-plane motion) Brute force: combinatorically examine all tuples of tracklets and select viable ones KD-Tree: create a RA/DEC/time index of tracklet locations, and search tree according to estimated velocity of tracklets

108. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review108 Algorithms - OrbitProximity Given: 10 million derived orbits, hundreds or thousands of proposed orbits Want: which proposed orbits are very similar to derived orbits Brute force: manually compare orbital elements for each proposed orbit against every derived orbit KD-Tree: index the derived orbits in six dimensions, and look up proposed orbits in this index

109. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review109 Algorithms - ADD kd-trees

110. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review110 Algorithms - ADD Initial Orbit Determination (IOD) When no pre-existing orbit exists for a set of detections an initial orbit may be determined assuming that there are only two gravitationally interacting bodies in the solar system - the Sun and the detected object. The calculation of the 2-body orbit (with six free parameters) from at least 3 angles-only (RA, Dec) detections provides an initial estimate of the osculating orbit elements for the object.

111. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review111 Algorithms - ADD Initial Orbit Determination (IOD)  Temporarily provided by 3 rd party SW -FindOrb -gorbit -knobso  Developing internal IOD based on JPL SW

112. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review112 Algorithms - ADD Differential Orbit Determination (OD) Once the IOD exists for a set of detections it is possible to improve the orbit elements in the sense of minimizing the residual between the actual and predicted positions for the object. The procedure by which the orbit is fit to the detections is known as differentially correcting the orbit.

113. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review113 Algorithms - ADD Differential Orbit Determination (OD)

114. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review114 Algorithms - ADD Ephemeris Generation (EPHEM) Given an orbit (with associated error estimates on the elements) and time and location of observation it is possible to predict the apparent position of the object on that orbit. The set of predicted observed parameters (perhaps including brightness, position, distance, rate of motion, etc.) is known as an ephemeris.

115. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review115 Algorithms - ADD Ephemeris Generation (EPHEM)

116. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review116 Algorithms - ADD OD & EPHEM

117. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review117 Algorithms - ADD Shape Modelling A method of describing the shape of a 3-d convex body based on triangular facets. Accurately modelling light curve variations allows MOPS to assess it’s efficiency and ability to meet primary requirements

118. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review118 Algorithms - ADD Shape Modelling

119. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review119 Algorithms - ADD Photometric Models A method of predicting the brightness of objects –Asteroids –Comets Two techniques –Simple (H & G) –Complex (from shape model)

120. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review120 Algorithms - ADD Photometric Models –Simple (H & G)

121. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review121 Algorithms - ADD Photometric Models Complex (from shape model) –Shape: Each object will be described as a 3 dimensional polyhedron with any number of triangular facets, and corresponding vertices. Most synthetic objects will be triaxial ellipsoid converted to corresponding convex shapes, but a subset of the largest objects will have more complex and realistic shapes.

122. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review122 Algorithms - ADD Photometric Models Complex (from shape model) –Albedo: each of the facets has an albedo parameter that defines how much of the light coming from the Sun is reflected. Usually all the facets will have the same albedo value.

123. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review123 Algorithms - ADD Photometric Models Complex (from shape model) –Spin state: given as pole direction in ecliptic coordinates and the sidereal period.

124. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review124 Algorithms - ADD Photometric Models Complex (from shape model) –Orbital state: gives the position of the asteroid with respect to the Sun and the observer.

125. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review125 Algorithms - ADD Photometric Models –Complex (from shape model) n EoEo E To Earth To Sun normal

126. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review126 Algorithms - ADD Photometric Models –Complex (from shape model) ds LambertLommel-Seelinger

127. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review127 Algorithms - ADD Photometric Models –Complex (from shape model) For the sake of convenient inversion, the phase function multiplies the sum of the single and multiple scattering terms. An exponential and linear model is a versatile choice for this purpose. a and d are the amplitude and scale length of the opposition effect, and k is the overall slope of the phase curve.

128. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review128 Algorithms - ADD Photometric Models –Complex (from shape model) where r and  are the object’s distance from the Sun and observer, respectively, and  H is an offset magnitude to ensure the object has the proper H M (1,1,0).

129. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review129 Algorithms - ADD Photometric Models –Complex (from shape model)

130. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review130 Algorithms - ADD Photometric Models –comets

131. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review131 Software Design: Overview Software must be designed to allow MOPS to meet its primary requirements Must be designed within existing framework, be consistent with IPP and PSPS operations. Must be designed within budget constraints

132. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review132 Software Design: Overview Databases Software Subsystems Incorporation of 3 rd party software Hardware Implementation

133. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review133 Software Design: Overview MOPS-wide design decisions Architectural design components Detailed design decisions

134. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review134 Software Design: Operational States

135. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review135 Software Design: I/O INPUT (DIRECT) –IPP metadata and detections data INPUT (INDIRECT) –JPL position and velocities and orbits –MPC detections and orbits –Shapes, poles, spin rates from other sources OUTPUT –MOPS will provide running output of its processing so that instantaneous status and efficiency can be internally monitored –Push output to the PSPS –Push detections to the MPC, JPL, AstDys

136. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review136 Software Design: Data Collections There is no external access to internal MOPS data collections. All user access to moving object data will be through the PSPS

137. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review137 Software Design: Atomicity

138. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review138 Software Design: Atomicity

139. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review139 Software Design: Availability The MOPS design will allow for 97% uptime (four hours/week downtime). The MOPS pipelines will execute continuously. All MOPS internal status changes will be effected via atomic operations.

140. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review140 Software Design: Components Two independent pipelines –Detections and Tracklets –Linking and Orbit Determination MOPS components are divided into –execution units perform discrete blocks of processing and/or calculation –class modules encapsulate business logic to represent and manipulate MOPS fundamental concepts such as fields (metadata), detections, tracklets and derived objects.

141. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review141 Software Design: Components Detection and Tracklet Controller Linking and Orbit Determination Controller Orbit Determination –Initial Orbit Determination –Differential Corrector Ephemeris Generator FieldProximity FindTracklets LinkTracklets OrbitProximity

142. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review142 Software Design: Components MOPS Internal Database Fields DC Low Confidence SOT DC High Confidence SOT DC Tracklets DC Derived Objects DC Synthetic Objects DC Shape Model Efficiency Determinator Graphical User Interface

143. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review143 Software Design: Components Detection and Tracklet Controller (DTCTL) –a program representable as a finite state machine that will be responsible for controlling the execution of the Detection and Tracklet pipeline.

144. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review144 Software Design: Components MOPS Internal Database (PSMOPS + LCSOT) –consists of definitions, templates, driver software, utility software, interface software and configuration files related to the operation of the database housing the MOPS data collections.

145. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review145 Software Design: Components MOPS Internal Database (PSMOPS) –The MOPS will maintain its own copy of all data collections relevant to MOPS operation and will push results to PSPS.

146. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review146 Software Design: Components Fields DC (FIELDSDC) –consists of database table definitions and interface code to query and manipulate the contents of the MOPS Fields (IPP Metadata) data collection.

147. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review147 Software Design: Components Low Confidence and High Confidence SOT DCs (LCSOTDC and HCSOTDC) –consists of database table definitions and interface code to query and manipulate the contents of the MOPS Metadata Low- Confidence and High-Confidence data collections.

148. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review148 Software Design: Components Tracklets DC (TRACKLETSDC) –consists of database table definitions and interface code to query and manipulate the contents of the MOPS Tracklets data collection.

149. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review149 Software Design: Components Derived Objects DC (DODC) –consists of database table definitions and interface code to query and manipulate the contents of the MOPS Derived Object data collection.

150. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review150 Software Design: Components Synthetic Objects DC (SSMDC) –consists of database table definitions and interface code to query and manipulate the contents of the MOPS synthetic Solar System Model data collection.

151. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review151 Software Design: Components Shape Model (SHAPE) –consists of source code, libraries and database table definitions to calculate magnitudes from a shape model definition, calculate shape models from observed magnitudes (light curves), and query and manipulate the Shape Model DC.

152. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review152 Software Design: Components FieldProximity –associate large lists of objects with multiple (RA, DEC and time) coordinates with a smaller list of fields with (RA, DEC, time) coordinates.

153. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review153 Software Design: Components FindTracklets –will examine an entire set of detections present in a Pan- STARRS field and return a list of tracklets. A tracklet is a small set (2, 3, or 4 usually) of detections that are close together in RA, DEC and time and are candidates for being the same moving object.

154. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review154 Software Design: Components LinkTracklets –examine a set of tracklets belonging to multiple nights, usually during a single observing cycle, and return a list of tracks. A track is a set of tracklets that are candidates for describing the motion of a single moving object.

155. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review155 Software Design: Components OrbitProximity –given a list of orbits and their orbital parameters, return a list of similar orbits from a large list of orbits.

156. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review156 Software Design: Components Ephemeris Generator (EPHEM) –Produce an ephemeris for either a MOPS derived object or an arbitrary set of six orbital parameters and a magnitude.

157. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review157 Software Design: Components Linking and Orbit Determination Controller (LODCTL) –a program representable as a finite state machine that will be responsible for controlling the execution of the Linking and Orbit Determination pipeline.

158. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review158 Software Design: Components Orbit Determination (MOPSOD) –employ IOD and differential correction to produce a six-parameter position and velocity from a set of detections.

159. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review159 Software Design: Components Initial Orbit Determination (IOD) –The IOD module will produce a 2-body approximate orbit given a set of MOPS detections

160. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review160 Software Design: Components Differential Corrector (DIFFCOR) –determine a minimum-residual orbit for a given set of detections.

161. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review161 Software Design: Components Efficiency Determinator –Repository for routines and data used to assess real-time and long term MOPS performance.

162. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review162 Software Design: Components Graphical User Interface (GUI) –consists of all code, static and dynamic web page definitions and configuration information required to produce the web-based MOPS operator's console.

163. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review163 Software Detailed Design: DTCTL Responsible for verifying the presence of new input data, dispatching execution units to perform processing, verifying successful return codes from execution units. Operates at a quantum unit of ‘field’ dtctl-tree.eps

164. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review164 Software Detailed Design: DTCTL for MJD calculate coarse (0h UTC) ephemerides for all synthetic and derived objects for MJD - 0.5, MJD and MJD + 0.5

165. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review165 Software Detailed Design: DTCTL Execute FieldProximity to associate coarse ephemerides with nearby acquired fields for that night.

166. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review166 Software Detailed Design: DTCTL SYNTHETIC OBJECTS: Calculate accurate ephemerides associated with each field, and filter out objects not present due to chip gaps, streak removal, dead pixels, etc. in the field. DERIVED OBJECTS: Calculate accurate ephemerides associated with each field and attribute tracklets

167. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review167 Software Detailed Design: DTCTL Identify derived objects and non-detections in the field

168. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review168 Software Detailed Design: DTCTL Insert synthetic detections

169. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review169 Software Detailed Design: DTCTL Extract HC detections

170. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review170 Software Detailed Design: DTCTL Execute FindTracklets on each field and store tracklets in Tracklets DC.

171. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review171 Software Detailed Design: LODCTL Retrieve all unlinked tracklets for fields to be processed

172. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review172 Software Detailed Design: LODCTL Execute LinkTracklets to create proposed tracklet linkages (tracks)

173. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review173 Software Detailed Design: LODCTL Perform a two-body then differential orbital determination on all tracks.

174. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review174 Software Detailed Design: LODCTL Look for precoveries and non-detections in the previous OC and refine the orbital parameters using new detections

175. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review175 Software Detailed Design: LODCTL Execute OrbitProximity to find matches to derived objects.

176. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review176 Software Detailed Design: LODCTL For new (unmatched) orbits, assign a MOPS base-62 (A-Z,a-z,0- 9) designation, and update the tracklets and derived objects DCs with the new orbits.

177. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review177 Software Design: MOPSOD

178. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review178 Software Design: FieldProximity two critical MOPS tasks: –nightly ephemeris generation of synthetic objects –searching for derived objects in new input and previously acquired fields. uses KD-trees to associate positions of moving objects with fields ‘field’ is generalized to any circular region with an arbitrary radius on the celestial sphere.

179. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review179 Software Design: LinkTracklets uses KD-trees to locate candidate linkages of tracklets acquired over many nights. LinkTracklets links tracklets to form tracks Tracks then pruned by linear or quadratic model

180. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review180 Software Design: DC Class Hierarchy

181. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review181 Software Design: Hardware Hardware configuration must be designed to allow MOPS to meet its primary requirements Must be designed within existing framework and budget

182. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review182 Software Design: Hardware networked industry-standard GNU/Linux 2.4 single-CPU or multiple-CPU systems capable of TBD MIPS/node. Nodes will be networked using TCP/IP over 1000BaseT Ethernet.

183. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review183 Software Design: Hardware

184. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review184 Software Design: Hardware Data Collections –will reside in an Oracle 10g database instance named PSMOPS. –Storage for the LCSOTDC, which constitutes 99.9\% of the storage requirement for the MOPS DCs, will reside in a federation of ``fat'' nodes running Pan- STARRS IPP Image Server/Idata software.

185. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review185 Software Design: Hardware The MOPS Detection and Tracklets Controller (DTCTL), Linking and Orbit Determination Controller (LODCTL), and operator console will reside on three redundant identically-configured Standard class PCs. hwutilization.eps

186. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review186 Software Design: Hardware redundant design allows the MOPS to easily dispatch 1000 IPP metadata fields per night, respond to operator input within one second, and achieve 97% uptime hwutilization.eps

187. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review187 Software Design: Hardware Database Host will be a Server-class PC running Oracle 10g database software. Attached to this host will be networked storage containing 5TB storage for all MOPS data collections. hwutilization.eps

188. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review188 Software Design: Hardware System-wide general storage and database files for all data collections other than the LC SOT DC will reside on a network storage device with 5TB of storage. I/O to and from the storage device will be 1000-BaseT or FibreChannel hwutilization.eps

189. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review189 Software Design: Hardware General-purpose MOPS processing (FieldProximity, FindTracklets, LinkTracklets, OrbitProximity) will be performed on an 8-node cluster of Computation-class PCs. hwutilization.eps

190. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review190 Software Design: Hardware Ephemerides and Orbit calculation will be performed on 6- and 8-node clusters of Computation-class PCs. hwutilization.eps

191. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review191 Software Design: Hardware The LC SOT DC will exist as a federated cluster of ‘fat’ nodes running IPP IData Image Server code which provides a mechanism for redundant copies of LC SOT data to co-exist on multiple nodes. hwutilization.eps

192. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review192 Software Design: Hardware Summary Node TypeRequired Standard3 Computation22 Server2 FatTBD

193. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review193 MOPS Development Plan MOPS for PS-1development plan is designed to allow MOPS to meet its primary requirements by late 2006

194. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review194 MOPS Development Plan Timeline Documentation Current Component Status Development & Testing plan

195. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review195 MOPS Timeline: Project TODAY

196. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review196 MOPS Timeline: Simulations TODAY

197. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review197 MOPS Timeline: PS1 This is not in current project timeline PS1 First Light

198. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review198 MOPS Status: Documentation Critical Documentation  Complete & Evolving PSDC-530-001: Software Requirement Specification PSDC-530-002: Algorithm Design Description PSDC-530-003: Software Design Description  Not started o Software Version Description o Sub-system Test Plan o Sub-system Maintenance Plan o Software User Manual

199. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review199 MOPS Status: Documentation Supplementary Documentation  PSDC-500-001 Orbit Determination Ephemeris Software  PSDC-500-003 Solar System Survey Simulation  PSDC-500-004 Solar System Model

200. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review200 MOPS Status: Publications None to date Planning a series of papers:  MOPS-1: The Pan-STARRS Solar System Model  MOPS-2: The Pan-STARRS Solar System Survey Simulation  MOPS-3: Linking Pan-STARRS Solar System Detections  MOPS-4: Pan-STARRS Detection and Orbit Determination Efficiency Then, as Pan-STARRS begins operations, a summary and update of all the above:  MOPS-5: Pan-STARRS Moving Object Processing System Operations

201. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review201 MOPS Status : Components Detection and Tracklet Controller (DTCTL) –Under development –May use IPP controller/scheduler

202. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review202 MOPS Status : Components Linking and Orbit Determination Controller (LODCTL) –Under development –May use IPP controller/scheduler

203. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review203 MOPS Status : Components MOPS Internal Databases (PSMOPS) –Delivered by SAIC –Operational –Continuing improvements

204. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review204 MOPS Status : Components Low Confidence SOT DC (LCSOTDC) –Not developed –Unimplemented and developing code –No hardware

205. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review205 MOPS Status : Components Shape Model (SHAPE) –Not Delivered by SAIC –Developing code

206. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review206 MOPS Status : Components FieldProximity / FindTracklets / LinkTracklets / OrbitProximity –Delivered by CMU (Kubica) –Operational and undergoing continuing tests –Kubica visiting May 23 – June 3 to improve interface and operations

207. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review207 MOPS Status : Components Orbit Determination (MOPSOD) –Under development –Preliminary version is operational

208. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review208 MOPS Status : Components Initial Orbit Determination (IOD) –Under development by Grav –Currently using ‘mongrel’ 3 rd party software: FindOrb Gorbit knobso

209. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review209 MOPS Status : Components Differential Corrector (DIFFCOR) –Delivered by JPL –Operational –Currently in initial testing phase

210. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review210 MOPS Status : Components Ephemeris Generator (EPHEM) –Delivered by JPL –Operational –Currently in initial testing phase

211. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review211 MOPS Status : Components Efficiency Determinator –Almost non-existent –Need full design, algorithms and operations specification

212. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review212 MOPS Status : Components Graphical User Interface (GUI) –Non-existent –Need full design & operations specification

213. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review213 MOPS Status : Component Summary ComponentStatus Detection and Tracklet ControllerUnder development Linking & Orbit Determination ControllerUnder development Initial Orbit DeterminationUnder development Currently using SW with strange pedigree Differential CorrectorDelivered & Operational Orbit DeterminationUnder development Ephemeris GeneratorDelivered & Operational FieldProximityDelivered, Operational, Revising FindTrackletsDelivered, Operational, Revising LinkTrackletsDelivered, Operational, Revising OrbitProximityDelivered & Un-tested

214. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review214 MOPS Status : Components ComponentStatus MOPS Internal DatabaseUnder development Fields DCDelivered, Operational, Revising Low Confidence SOT DCUnder development High Confidence SOT DCDelivered, Operational, Revising Tracklets DCDelivered, Operational, Revising Derived Objects DCDelivered, Operational, Revising Synthetic Objects DCDelivered, Operational, Revising Shape ModelNot available Efficiency DeterminatorNot developed Graphical User InterfaceNot developed

215. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review215 MOPS Test Plan MOPS testing is integral to its development through the continuous use of synthetic data We will constantly compare MOPS performance to the primary requirements

216. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review216 MOPS Test Plan We have already tested our preliminary pipeline through the following steps:  solar system model  solar system survey simulation  intra-night linking (FindTracklets)  inter-night linking (LinkTracklets)  Orbit Determination (OD) Initial Orbit Determination (IOD) Differential Correction (DIFFCOR)

217. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review217 MOPS Test Plan not yet tested:  inter-lunation linking  orbit identification However –Preliminary indications of orbit determination accuracy (with 3 nights of pairs of detections) are excellent –Preliminary indications of inter-lunation ephemeris prediction are excellent

218. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review218 MOPS Test Plan: Simulations Evening Sweet SpotMorning Sweet Spot Low OppositionHigh Opposition

219. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review219 MOPS Test Plan: Simulations One Solar System Survey Cycle

220. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review220 MOPS Test Plan: Simulations Opposition motion

221. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review221 MOPS Test Plan: Simulations Sweet spot motion

222. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review222 MOPS Test Plan: Simulations Recovery Estimation Error (Opposition)

223. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review223 MOPS Test Plan: Simulations Recovery Estimation Error (Sweet Spot)

224. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review224 MOPS Test Plan: Simulations 1/3 arcmin 2 Recovery Estimation Error (Sweet Spot)

225. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review225 MOPS Test Plan: Simulations TypePresentFindableCleanODOverall 30 day AREE NEO28337%100.0%72.4% 70" MB168455%99.7%99.9%99.6%2.43" Trojans125642%99.8%97.1%97.0%4.03" Centaurs9263%100.0% 1.08" TNOs249460%100.0%54.0% 0.81" SDOs48554%100.0%76.8% 0.48" Comets3549%100.0% 3.79" NEO (real)8158%100.0%89.4% 68.97" Total641054%99.9%76.7% 4.5" Linking and Orbit Determination Efficiency SSM = MB/100 + Everything else Evening Sweet Spot (OC=61) Multi-Pass, lin_thresh=0.1 quad_thresh=0.1

226. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review226 MOPS Test Plan: Simulations TypePresentFindableCleanODOverall 30 day AREE NEO34544%99.3%74.7%74.2%80.86 MB169759%99.7%99.8%99.5%0.74 Trojans428644%99.8%89.5%89.3%0.99 Centaurs12350%100.0% 0.93 TNOs302551%99.7%48.6%48.4%1.25 SDOs52247%99.6%75.6%75.3%0.49 Comets2264%100.0%85.7% 1.42 NEO (real)9845%95.5%83.3%79.5%38.97 Total1011849%99.7%77.9%77.6%3.53 Linking and Orbit Determination Efficiency SSM = MB/100 + Everything else Morning Sweet Spot (OC=61) Multi-Pass, lin_thresh=0.1 quad_thresh=0.1

227. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review227 MOPS Test Plan: Simulations TypePresentFindableCleanODOverall 30 day AREE NEO9533%87.1%100.0%87.1%0.39 MB18265%97.5%100.0%97.5%0.25 Trojans386679%99.9%100.0%99.9%0.30 Centaurs2681%100.0% 0.23 TNOs3100%100.0% 0.15 SDOs15592%100.0% 0.12 Comets1164%85.7%100.0%85.7%0.25 NEO (real)850%75.0%100.0%75.0%0.38 Total434678%99.6%100.0%99.6%0.29 Linking and Orbit Determination Efficiency SSM = MB/100 + Everything else 400 deg 2 near opposition (OC=61) Multi-Pass, lin_thresh=0.1 quad_thresh=0.1

228. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review228 MOPS Test Plan Near term improvements  Introduce astrometric noise  1/10 th MB model  full density MB model  other solar system survey modes  30min TTI  4 nights/lunation  opposition & sweet-spot only  inter-lunation and inter-opposition linking

229. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review229 MOPS Test Plan Final goal:  MEET REQUIREMENTS

230. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review230 Risk Assessment: WILL MOPS MEET ITS REQUIREMENTS? WHAT ARE THE RISKS? WHAT ARE THEIR IMPACTS? WHAT IS OUR RISK REDUCTION PLAN?

231. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review231 Risk Assessment: Telescope Telescope design, location, dome must allow surveying to small solar elongation  Provide telescope engineers solar system survey requirements on altitude-azimuth for simulated surveying at small solar elongation Risk Impact Risk reduction plan reduced PHO detection efficiency increased time to meet PHO requirements

232. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review232 Risk Assessment: Telescope Telescope optical system may not allow surveying at low altitudes (mechanically and optically)  Encourage development of Atmospheric Dispersion Compensator (ADC)  Ensure that telescope/optical designers are aware of low altitude surveying requirements Risk Impact reduced PHO detection efficiency in sweet-spots increased time to meet PHO requirements Risk reduction plan

233. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review233 Risk Assessment: Camera Nothing MOPS-specific  None Risk Impact Risk reduction plan  None

234. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review234 Risk Assessment: OTIS All fields in all survey modes must be acquired at least twice per night The maximum time separation between two of the images must be less than TTI max  Ensure that these specifications are in the OTIS requirements  Confirm that OTIS simulator surveys in this mode Risk Impact Risk reduction plan  Unable to function

235. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review235 Risk Assessment: OTIS Solar system surveying mode must provide at least 3 (perhaps 4) nights of detections separated by a total of no less than 6 and no more than 12 nights (TBR) at least one pair of nights must have a separation of between 3 and 5 nights (TBR)  Ensure that these specifications are in the OTIS requirements  Confirm that OTIS simulator surveys in this mode Risk Impact Risk reduction plan  Unable to function

236. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review236 Risk Assessment: IPP Must efficiently detect ASTEROIDS Must determine efficiency w.r.t. flux, motion, etc. How do we determine if there is a problem? Is it IPP or MOPS causing reduction in efficiency?  Verify that minimum ASTEROID detection efficiency is an IPP requirement  Ensure that IPP is tested on ASTEROID detections  Ongoing discussion with IPP members Risk Impact Risk reduction plan  Major  Improper determination of MOPS efficiency  Unable to bias-correct data

237. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review237 Risk Assessment: IPP Must efficiently detect COMETS Must determine efficiency w.r.t. flux, motion, etc. How do we determine if there is a problem? Is it IPP or MOPS causing reduction in efficiency?  Verify that minimum COMET detection efficiency is an IPP requirement  Ensure that IPP is tested on COMET detections  Ongoing discussion with IPP members Risk Impact Risk reduction plan  Major  Improper determination of MOPS efficiency  Unable to bias-correct data

238. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review238 Risk Assessment: SAIC Slow turnaround time on DC development cycle  Working with SAIC to reduce development cycle Risk Impact Risk reduction plan Schedule delays Wasted time waiting for implementation

239. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review239 Risk Assessment: PSPS Nothing MOPS-specific  None Risk Impact Risk reduction plan  None

240. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review240 Risk Assessment: MOPS Design All MOPS components have prototypes that are being tested on synthetic data BUT –NOT tested at full sky-plane density –NOT tested with astrometric & photometric errors –NOT tested with false detections (noise)  Once pipeline is fully operational we will scale up the synthetic data to incorporate these effects and monitor MOPS efficiency as they are added  Continuing improvement of solar system model, survey simulator and inclusion of ever-more realistic detector performance  Collaboration with Milani developing parallel and very different linking algorithms Risk Impact Risk reduction plan  Increased computing time  Increased computing power  Reduced detection efficiency

241. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review241 Risk Assessment: MOPS Design Reliance on 3 rd party software (IOD, OD, FindTracklets, LinkTracklets, FieldProximity, OrbitProximity)  Use 3 rd party SW with good pedigree (JPL)  Develop test suites for 3 rd party SW under realistic but synthetic conditions  Reduce reliance on 3 rd party SW (e.g. IOD)  Sign no-revoke contract with consultants Risk Impact Risk reduction plan If consultants stop working with us we have no backup, no opportunity for algorithm improvement, no depth

242. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review242 Risk Assessment: MOPS Schedule PS-1 should deliver detections suitable for linking by late 2006 Current schedule has MOPS for PS-1 operational in July 2006 MOPS schedule may be too agressive  If we believe project schedule none necessary  Continuous monitoring of MOPS progress by MOPS manager and PMO Risk Impact Risk reduction plan  Schedule delays

243. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review243 Risk Assessment: MOPS Resources Reduced budget for collaboration with consultants  Working with PMO to address the problem Risk Impact Risk reduction plan  Schedule delays  Inefficient algorithms  Reduced detection efficiency

244. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review244 Risk Assessment: MOPS Resources Too few FTE assigned to MOPS Too much dependence on single SW engineer Too much reliance on consultants  Working with PMO to address the problem  Attempt to co-hire SW engineer with LSST Risk Impact Risk reduction plan Schedule delays Unable to ensure that requirements are being met (e.g. software coding standards, attending other group’s meeting)

245. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review245 Risk Assessment: MOPS Resources Mini-MOPS hardware system purchase delayed 6 months already $50K in current MOPS budget BUT no facility to store the system when purchased  Working with PMO to address the problem Risk Impact Risk reduction plan  Schedule delays  Inefficient use of time

246. 2005 May 9MOPS Preliminary Design Review246 NO Impact! NOTEND THE MOPS