1. Spatial population dynamics of brown bears in Scandinavia and Finland Jonna Katajisto Metapopulation Research Group Jonna.Katajisto@Helsinki.Fi

2. Why? – MSc thesis for Scandinavian Brown Bear Project – To more methodological direction – Fragmentation and poaching main threats of bear populations – ”Bears threat to human populations”

3. Aims and means –Main processes and mechanisms determining population dynamics? –How affected by spatial and temporal patterns of landscape?  Spatially explicit population models

4. Specific issues –Viability of bear populations under current and future management plans –Effects of landscape structure on dispersal and population expansion –Effects of harvesting –Human conflicts

5. Outline –Linking landscape patterns to population dynamics –Brown bear data –Modelling challenges

6. Landscape - succession - human land use Landscape Dynamics Individual Demographic processes Spatial processes - movement - habitat choice - interactions Population density Distribution

7. –Scandinavian Brown Bear Research Project since 1984 –To date ~300 bears –At the moment ~100 –Most followed their lifetime –Finnish Game and Fisheries Research Institute My bears

9. Habitat quality and human influence –CORINE land use data  Maps for habitat quality and human activity  Habitat specific demography  Hunter-kills  Harvesting with demographic variability

10. –Intensive/daily/ weekly/ monthly locations  Detailed individual movement –Dispersal from mother’s home range until establishment  Large scale approach Dispersal

11. Spatially explicit individual-based population model

12. Modelling challenges –Data quality: –Almost infinite possibilities for modelling detailed behaviour –Complex models difficult to test 1. Biological processes 2. Parameter values 3. Stochasticity

13. Excellent data Answers to some questions Improving spatial modelling Novel modelling

14. Population Viability Analysis - Spatially implicit time series stage-structured individual-based - Spatially explicit

15. Resource requirements Mechanism of mate choice Dispersal Social interactions Reproductiv e behaviour Mating syste m SSI Landscape structure Human activity Individual Behaviour Individual

16. –GIS methods –Habitat quality –Scale –Measures of spatial pattern Landscape

17. Spatially explicit individual-based population model