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The Future of US Foreign Policy And how Obama has dealt with it
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Short Term Iraq: Out Afghanistan: In and eventually out
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Middle East Turmoil Balancing US interests counterterrorism human rights and democracy OIL alliance with Israel
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Policies Encouraging Egyptian military to oust Mubarak Trying to salvage Yemeni and Bahraini leaders, but encouraging them to start transition as protests continue Bombing Libya Diplomacy with Syria: many implications Saudi Arabia: silence
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Longer Term US Goals Preservation of US Leadership Democratization Global Free market capitalism Stable change where change is necessary
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Trends and Transformations? 1.Unipolarity: Can it Last 2.New Cold War 3.Multipolarity 4.Leadership, not Dominance 5.Middle Power Challenges 6.Globalization: Interdependence 7.Decline of Nation-State Power 8.Uncertainties
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1. Unipolarity Can it Last? It never has before
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US Wealth See World Bank: http://siteresources.worldbank.org/DATASTATISTICS/Resources/GDP.pdf http://siteresources.worldbank.org/DATASTATISTICS/Resources/GDP.pdf
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Global Military Expenditures Global Military Expenditures CountryMilitary spending Budget PeriodCountryMilitary spending Budget Period World $1100 billion 2004 est.World $1100 billion 2004 est. United States $623 billion FY08United States $623 billion FY08 Rest-of-World $500 billion 2004 est.Rest-of-World $500 billion 2004 est. China $65.0 billion 2004China $65.0 billion 2004China Russia$50.0 billionRussia$50.0 billionRussia France$45.0 billion 2005France$45.0 billion 2005 United Kingdom$42.8 billion 2005 est.United Kingdom$42.8 billion 2005 est. Japan$41.75 billion 2007Japan$41.75 billion 2007Japan Germany$35.1 billion 2003Germany$35.1 billion 2003 Italy$28.2 billion 2003Italy$28.2 billion 2003 South Korea $21.1 billion 2003 est.South Korea $21.1 billion 2003 est. India$19.0 billion 2005 est.India$19.0 billion 2005 est.India Saudi Arabia$18.0 billion 2005 est.Saudi Arabia$18.0 billion 2005 est. Australia$16.9 billion 2006Australia$16.9 billion 2006 North Korea $5.0 billion FY02North Korea $5.0 billion FY02 Iran$4.3 billion 2003 est.Iran$4.3 billion 2003 est. From: http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/spending.htmFrom: http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/spending.htm
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2. New Cold War One nation catches up to the US Rising Challenger Declining hegemon
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US vs. China President Obama and President Hu
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Great Power Challenges Rival Power Soft Authoritarian Ideology
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3. Multipolarity Many nations catch up to the US The US falls back to the pack
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A Multipolar System US Russia Japan EU ChinaIndia
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Or Another Bipolar System US IndiaRussia China
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Sending a Message? Obama Administration’s first state dinner Michelle Obama and Indian PM Singh
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Trips to Asia 20092010
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4. Leadership, not Dominance G-20
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5. Middle Power Challenges Iranian power
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6. Globalization: Interdependence: conflict won’t become war
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Welcome to China
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Welcome to the US
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Welcome to New York
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7. Decline of Nation-State Power The Nation-State System evolves –Governments weaken Financial Flows that governments can’t control Organizations that governments can’t control or defend themselves against
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Developing Asia Countries Net Private Capital Flows (from Commonwealth Treasury, Australia, Dr Ken Henry, Restoring Growth to the East Asian Region, 2002, http://www.treasury.gov.au/documents/265/HTML/docshell.asp?URL=default.asp
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US GDP Growth
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21 st Century Challenges Global Terrorism: 9/11 Regional Instability: al- Shabab in Somalia
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AQAM Attacks 1995-2011
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Transnational Organized Crime: Mexico vs. Drug Cartels source:http://www.utexas.edu/international/ioc/safety_updates.html
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8. Uncertainties Climate Change Energy Food Population Over-urbanization Migration And…
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