1. Copyright © 2004 South-Western 32 A Macroeconomic Theory of the Open Economy Þjóðhagfræðikenningar um opna hagkerfið

2. Copyright © 2004 South-Western Key Macroeconomic Variables in an Open Economy The important macroeconomic variables of an open economy include: Mikilvægar þjóðhagsbreytur opins hagkerfis innihalda: net exports nettó útflutning net foreign investment nettó erlenda fjárfestingu nominal exchange rates nafngengi (gjaldmiðils) real exchange rates raungengi (gjaldmiðils)

3. Copyright © 2004 South-Western Basic Assumptions of a Macroeconomic Model of an Open Economy The model takes the economy’s GDP as given. The model takes the economy’s price level as given.

4. Copyright © 2004 South-Western SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR LOANABLE FUNDS AND FOR FOREIGN-CURRENCY EXCHANGE The Market for Loanable Funds S = I + NCO At the equilibrium interest rate, the amount that people want to save exactly balances the desired quantities of investment and net capital outflows.

5. Copyright © 2004 South-Western The Market for Loanable Funds The supply of loanable funds comes from national saving (S). Framboðið af lánsfé kemur frá þjóðhagssparnaði (S). The demand for loanable funds comes from domestic investment (I) and net capital outflows (NCO). Eftirspurnin eftir lánsfé kemur frá innlendum (staðbundum, heimamarkaðs) fjárfjesstingu (I) og nettó fjármagns útflæði.

6. Figure 1 The Market for Loanable Funds Copyright©2003 Southwestern/Thomson Learning Quantity of Loanable Funds Real Interest Rate Supply of loanable funds (from national saving) Demand for loanable funds (for domestic investment and net capital outflow) Equilibrium quantity Equilibrium real interest rate

7. Copyright © 2004 South-Western The Market for Loanable Funds At the equilibrium interest rate, the amount that people want to save exactly balances the desired quantities of domestic investment and net foreign investment. Við jafnvægisvexti, er upphæðin sem fólk vill spara alveg jöfn æskilegu magni innlends sparnaðar og nettó erlendrar fjárfestingar.

8. Copyright © 2004 South-Western The Market for Foreign-Currency Exchange The two sides of the foreign-currency exchange market are represented by NCO and NX. NCO represents the imbalance between the purchases and sales of capital assets. NX represents the imbalance between exports and imports of goods and services.

9. Copyright © 2004 South-Western The Market for Foreign-Currency Exchange In the market for foreign-currency exchange, U.S. dollars are traded for foreign currencies. For an economy as a whole, NCO and NX must balance each other out, or: NCO = NX

10. Copyright © 2004 South-Western The Market for Foreign-Currency Exchange The price that balances the supply and demand for foreign-currency is the real exchange rate. Verðið sem jafnar framboð og eftirspurn eftir erlendum gjaldeyri er raungengi.

11. Copyright © 2004 South-Western The Market for Foreign-Currency Exchange The demand curve for foreign currency is downward sloping because a higher exchange rate makes domestic goods more expensive. The supply curve is vertical because the quantity of dollars supplied for net capital outflow is unrelated to the real exchange rate.

12. Figure 2 The Market for Foreign-Currency Exchange Copyright©2003 Southwestern/Thomson Learning Quantity of Dollars Exchanged into Foreign Currency Real Exchange Rate Supply of dollars (from net capital outflow) Demand for dollars (for net exports) Equilibrium quantity Equilibrium real exchange rate

13. Copyright © 2004 South-Western The Market for Foreign-Currency Exchange The real exchange rate adjusts to balance the supply and demand for dollars. Raungengi aðlagst jafnvægi framboðs og eftirspurnar eftir dollurum. At the equilibrium real exchange rate, the demand for dollars to buy net exports exactly balances the supply of dollars to be exchanged into foreign currency to buy assets abroad.

14. Copyright © 2004 South-Western EQUILIBRIUM IN THE OPEN ECONOMY In the market for loanable funds, supply comes from national saving and demand comes from domestic investment and net capital outflow. Á markaði fyrir lánsfé kemur framboð frá innlendum sparnaði og eftirspurn kemur frá innlendri fjárfestingu og nettó útflæði fjármagns. In the market for foreign-currency exchange, supply comes from net capital outflow and demand comes from net exports. Á markaði fyrir erlendan gjaldeyri kemur framboð frá nettó fjármagns útflæði og eftirspurn kemur frá nettó útflutningi.

15. Copyright © 2004 South-Western EQUILIBRIUM IN THE OPEN ECONOMY Net capital outflow links the loanable funds market and the foreign-currency exchange market. The key determinant of net capital outflow is the real interest rate.

16. Figure 3 How Net Capital Outflow Depends on the Interest Rate Copyright©2003 Southwestern/Thomson Learning 0 Net Capital Outflow Net capital outflow is negative. Net capital outflow is positive. Real Interest Rate

17. Copyright © 2004 South-Western EQUILIBRIUM IN THE OPEN ECONOMY Prices in the loanable funds market and the foreign-currency exchange market adjust simultaneously to balance supply and demand in these two markets. As they do, they determine the macroeconomic variables of national saving, domestic investment, net foreign investment, and net exports.

18. Figure 4 The Real Equilibrium in an Open Economy Copyright©2003 Southwestern/Thomson Learning (a) The Market for Loanable Funds(b) Net Capital Outflow Net capital outflow,NCO Real Interest Rate Real Interest Rate (c) The Market for Foreign-Currency Exchange Quantity of Dollars Quantity of Loanable Funds Net Capital Outflow Real Exchange Rate Supply Demand rr E

19. Copyright © 2004 South-Western HOW POLICIES AND EVENTS AFFECT AN OPEN ECONOMY The magnitude and variation in important macroeconomic variables depend on the following: Umfang og breytileiki í mikilvægra þjóðhagsbreyta fer eftir eftirfarandi þáttum: Government budget deficits Halli á fjárlögum hins opinbera Trade policies Stefnumörkun í alþjóðaviðskiptum Political and economic stability Pólitískum og hagrænum stöðugleika

20. Copyright © 2004 South-Western Government Budget Deficits In an open economy, government budget deficits... reduce the supply of loanable funds, drive up the interest rate, crowd out domestic investment, cause net foreign investment to fall.

21. Figure 5 The Effects of Government Budget Deficit Copyright©2003 Southwestern/Thomson Learning (a) The Market for Loanable Funds(b) Net Capital Outflow Real Interest Rate Real Interest Rate (c) The Market for Foreign-Currency Exchange Quantity of Dollars Quantity of Loanable Funds Net Capital Outflow Real Exchange Rate Demand r2r2 NCO SS S S r2r2 B E1E1 rr A 1. A budget deficit reduces the supply of loanable funds... 2.... which increases the real interest rate... 4. The decrease in net capital outflow reduces the supply of dollars to be exchanged into foreign currency... 5.... which causes the real exchange rate to appreciate. 3.... which in turn reduces net capital outflow. E2E2

22. Copyright © 2004 South-Western Government Budget Deficits Effect of Budget Deficits on the Loanable Funds Market Áhrif af fjárlagahalla á lánsfjármarkað A government budget deficit reduces national saving, which... Halli á fjárlögum dregur úr þjóðhagssparnaði, sem shifts the supply curve for loanable funds to the left, which... raises interest rates. Hækkar vexti

23. Copyright © 2004 South-Western Government Budget Deficits Effect of Budget Deficits on Net Foreign Investment Áhrif af fjárlagahalla á nettó fjárfestingu erlendis Higher interest rates reduce net foreign investment. Hærri vextir draga úr nettó fjárfestingu erlendis

24. Copyright © 2004 South-Western Government Budget Deficits Effect on the Foreign-Currency Exchange Market Áhrif af fjárlagahalla á gjaldeyrismarkað A decrease in net foreign investment reduces the supply of dollars to be exchanged into foreign currency. Samdráttur í erlendri fjárfestingu lækkar framboð dollara sem skipt er í erlendan gjaldeyri. This causes the real exchange rate to appreciate. Þetta leiðir til hækkunar raungengis.

25. Copyright © 2004 South-Western Trade Policy A trade policy is a government policy that directly influences the quantity of goods and services that a country imports or exports. Viðskiptastefna er stefna stjórnvalda sem hefur bein áhrif á magn vara og þjónustu sem land flytur inn eða út. Tariff: A tax on an imported good. Tollur er skattur á innflutta vöru. Import quota: A limit on the quantity of a good produced abroad and sold domestically. Innflutningstollur: Takmörk á magn vöru sem framleidd er erlendis og seld á heimamarkaði.

26. Copyright © 2004 South-Western Trade Policy Because they do not change national saving or domestic investment, trade policies do not affect the trade balance. For a given level of national saving and domestic investment, the real exchange rate adjusts to keep the trade balance the same. Trade policies have a greater effect on microeconomic than on macroeconomic markets.

27. Copyright © 2004 South-Western Trade Policy Effect of an Import Quota Because foreigners need dollars to buy U.S. net exports, there is an increased demand for dollars in the market for foreign-currency. This leads to an appreciation of the real exchange rate.

28. Copyright © 2004 South-Western Trade Policy Effect of an Import Quota There is no change in the interest rate because nothing happens in the loanable funds market. There will be no change in net exports. There is no change in net foreign investment even though an import quota reduces imports.

29. Copyright © 2004 South-Western Trade Policy Effect of an Import Quota An appreciation of the dollar in the foreign exchange market encourages imports and discourages exports. This offsets the initial increase in net exports due to import quota.

30. Figure 6 The Effects of an Import Quota Copyright©2003 Southwestern/Thomson Learning (a) The Market for Loanable Funds(b) Net Capital Outflow Real Interest Rate Real Interest Rate (c) The Market for Foreign-Currency Exchange Quantity of Dollars Quantity of Loanable Funds Net Capital Outflow Real Exchange Rate rr Supply Demand NCO D D 3. Net exports, however, remain the same. 2.... and causes the real exchange rate to appreciate. E E2E2 1. An import quota increases the demand for dollars...

31. Copyright © 2004 South-Western Trade Policy Effect of an Import Quota Trade policies do not affect the trade balance.

32. Copyright © 2004 South-Western Political Instability and Capital Flight Capital flight is a large and sudden reduction in the demand for assets located in a country. Fjármagnsflótti er mikill og snöggur samdráttur í eftirspurn eftir eignum staðsettum í tilteknu landi.

33. Copyright © 2004 South-Western Political Instability and Capital Flight Capital flight has its largest impact on the country from which the capital is fleeing, but it also affects other countries. Fjármagnsflótti hefur mest áhrif á landið sem fjármagnið streymir frá, en hann hefur einnig áhrif á önnur lönd. If investors become concerned about the safety of their investments, capital can quickly leave an economy. Ef fjárfestum verður umhugað um öryggi fjárfestinga, þá getur fjármagn yfirgefið landið snögglega. Interest rates increase and the domestic currency depreciates. Vexit hækka og staðbundinn gjaldmiðill gengisfellur (lækkar í virði gagnvart öðrum gjaldmiðlum).

34. Copyright © 2004 South-Western Political Instability and Capital Flight When investors around the world observed political problems in Mexico in 1994, they sold some of their Mexican assets and used the proceeds to buy assets of other countries.

35. Copyright © 2004 South-Western Political Instability and Capital Flight This increased Mexican net capital outflow. The demand for loanable funds in the loanable funds market increased, which increased the interest rate. This increased the supply of pesos in the foreign- currency exchange market.

36. Figure 7 The Effects of Capital Flight Copyright©2003 Southwestern/Thomson Learning (a) The Market for Loanable Funds in Mexico(b) Mexican Net Capital Outflow Real Interest Rate Real Interest Rate (c) The Market for Foreign-Currency Exchange Quantity of Pesos Quantity of Loanable Funds Net Capital Outflow Real Exchange Rate r1r1 r1r1 D1D1 D2D2 E Demand SS2S2 Supply NCO 2 NCO 1 1. An increase in net capital outflow... 3.... which increases the interest rate. 2.... increases the demand for loanable funds... 4. At the same time, the increase in net capital outflow increases the supply of pesos... 5.... which causes the peso to depreciate. r2r2 r2r2 E