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© 2009 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. 3/1/2009 Long-Term Investment Performance
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Measuring Historical Long-Term Market Performance © 2009 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. 3/1/2009 Compound annual return (geometric mean) The constant single rate of return that, if compounded over multiple holding periods of variable returns, equates a beginning wealth value with an ending wealth value. Arithmetic mean Simple average of returns Risk (standard deviation) The fluctuation of returns around the arithmetic average return of the investment. The higher the standard deviation, the greater the variability (and thus risk) of the investment returns.
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Types of Asset Classes © 2009 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. 3/1/2009 Stocks Large stocks Small stocks International stocks Bonds Government bonds Corporate bonds Municipal bonds High-yield bonds International bonds Cash equivalents Money market funds Treasury bills Certificates of deposit Real assets Real estate Commodities Gold
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0.10 1 10 100 1,000 $10,000 192619361946195619661976198619962006 Ibbotson ® SBBI ® Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation 1926–2008 Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Hypothetical value of $1 invested at the beginning of 1926. Assumes reinvestment of income and no transaction costs or taxes. This is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. An investment cannot be made directly in an index. © 2009 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. 3/1/2009 $9,549 $2,049 $99 $21 $12 Compound annual return Small stocks 11.7% Large stocks Government bonds Treasury bills Inflation 9.6 5.7 3.7 3.0
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Ibbotson ® SBBI ® Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation 1989–2008 Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Hypothetical value of $1 invested at the beginning of 1989. Assumes reinvestment of income and no transaction costs or taxes. This is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. An investment cannot be made directly in an index. © 2009 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. 3/1/2009 1989199419992004 1 10 $20.60 $6.46 $5.04 $6.76 $1.74 $2.30 Compound annual return Government bonds 10.0 % Small stocks Large stocks Inflation Treasury bills 9.8 8.4 2.8 4.2
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The Past 10 Years 1999–2008 Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Hypothetical value of $1 invested at the beginning of 1999. Assumes reinvestment of income and no transaction costs or taxes. This is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. An investment cannot be made directly in an index. © 2009 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. 3/1/2009.70 1 3 $5 19992001200320052007 $1.28 $1.37 $0.87 $2.24 $1.87 Compound annual return Government bonds 8.4% 6.4 Treasury bills Small stocks Inflation Large stocks 3.2 2.5 –1.4
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Long-Term Asset-Class Performance 1926–2008 Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Assumes reinvestment of income and no transaction costs or taxes. This is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. An investment cannot be made directly in an index. © 2009 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. 3/1/2009 Annual 12-month rolling periods Compound annual return Standard deviation Highest return Lowest return Average positive return Average negative return Percent periods positive Percent periods negative 11.7% 34.1% 316.4% –75.9% 31.3% –18.6% 72.0% 28.0% 9.6% 21.4% 162.9% –67.6% 21.7% –13.8% 73.6% 26.4% 5.7% 8.5% 54.4% –17.1% 8.5% –3.8% 78.1% 21.9% 3.7% 0.9% 15.2% 0.0% 3.8% 0.0% 98.4% 1.6% Small stocks Large stocks Government bonds Treasury bills
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Bond Market Performance 1926–2008 Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Hypothetical value of $1 invested at the beginning of 1926. Assumes reinvestment of income and no transaction costs or taxes. This is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. An investment cannot be made directly in an index. © 2009 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. 3/1/2009 $20.53 $29.69 $99.16 $115.15 $157.44 $2,049.45 $10,000 1,000 100 10 1 0.10 9.6% 6.3 5.9 5.7 4.2 3.7 Compound annual return Stocks High-yield corp bonds Corporate bonds Government bonds Municipal bonds Treasury bills 192619361946195619661976198619962006
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Bonds: Risk Versus Return 1970–2008 Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Risk and return are measured by standard deviation and compound annual return, respectively. This is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. An investment cannot be made directly in an index. © 2009 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. 3/1/2009 Municipal bonds Treasury bills Intermediate-term government bonds Long-term corporate bonds High-yield corporate bonds Long-term government bonds 2% Risk468101214 9 8 7 6 5 10% Return
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Growth and Value Investing 1980–2008 Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Hypothetical value of $1 invested at the beginning of 1980. Assumes reinvestment of income and no transaction costs or taxes. This is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. An investment cannot be made directly in an index. © 2009 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. 3/1/2009 $100 10 1 0.60 198019851990199520002005 $41.28 $26.56 $8.51 $6.82 13.7% 12.0 7.7 6.8 Compound annual return Small value Large value Large growth Small growth
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Stocks, Commodities, REITs, and Gold 1980–2008 Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Hypothetical value of $1 invested at the beginning of 1980. Assumes reinvestment of income and no transaction costs or taxes. This is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. An investment cannot be made directly in an index. © 2009 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. 3/1/2009 $100 0.50 1 1980 10 198519952000 $1.66 $19.30 $13.94 $6.39 $14.65 10.7% 9.7 9.5 6.6 1.8 Compound annual return U.S. stocks REITs International stocks Commodities Gold 20051990
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