1. Climate recap and outlook Nate Mantua, PhD University of Washington Center for Science in the Earth System - Climate Impacts Group Boise, ID October 17, 2007 Nate Mantua, PhD University of Washington Center for Science in the Earth System - Climate Impacts Group Boise, ID October 17, 2007

2. The CSES - Climate Impacts Group Goal: help the Pacific Northwest become more resilient to climate variations and climate change Supported by NOAA Climate Program Office as part of the Regional Integrated Science and Assessments (RISA) program Goal: help the Pacific Northwest become more resilient to climate variations and climate change Supported by NOAA Climate Program Office as part of the Regional Integrated Science and Assessments (RISA) program http://cses.washington.edu/cig/

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5. Accumulated Precip for the past year Source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/precipitation/northwest_1yrprec.s html

6. Accumulated Precip for the past year Source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/precipitation/northwest_1yrprec.s html

8. Daily Temperatures +1.27ºC +0.95ºC

9. 2006-07 snow pack

11. June-July-August 2007 temperature anomalies

12. June-July-August 2007 standardized precipitation anomalies

13. Oct 1 estimated soil moisture percentiles Courtesy of Andy Wood, University of Washington, data and images are available at http://www.hydro.washington. edu/forecast/monitor Courtesy of Andy Wood, University of Washington, data and images are available at http://www.hydro.washington. edu/forecast/monitor

14. Summer ocean conditions

16. Last year’s outlook a weak to moderate El Niño a weak to moderate El Niño is likely for the next 2-3 seasons trends weak to moderate intensity El Niño because of trends and expectations for a weak to moderate intensity El Niño, above-average fall/winter/spring temperatures are likely dry fall/winterbelow average end-of-season snow pack El Niño also tilts the odds in favor of a dry fall/winter and below average end-of-season snow pack a weak to moderate El Niño a weak to moderate El Niño is likely for the next 2-3 seasons trends weak to moderate intensity El Niño because of trends and expectations for a weak to moderate intensity El Niño, above-average fall/winter/spring temperatures are likely dry fall/winterbelow average end-of-season snow pack El Niño also tilts the odds in favor of a dry fall/winter and below average end-of-season snow pack

17. NOAA/CPC forecasts issued September 21, 2006 OND precip JFM precip http://cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

18. Precip: observed

19. http://cpc.ncep.noaa.gov NOAA/CPC forecasts issued September 21, 2006 OND temperature JFM temperature

20. Temperature: observed

21. 2121 This year…

22. La Niña arriving Tropical ocean temperatures have slid into La Niña territory

23. Equatorial temperature anomaly

24. The latest ENSO forecasts See http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO European Center Forecast summaries

25. Typical winter winds and jet stream during El Niño and La Niña winters

26. Average La Niña winter precip: 1916- 2003 http://www.cses.washington.edu/cig/maps

27. PDO forecast

28. PDO forecast: drifting toward cool http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/

29. Pacific Ocean Outlook Summary Current forecasts rate La Niña as most likely situation for 2007-08 PDO: Transiting to cool phase as La Niña fades Current forecasts rate La Niña as most likely situation for 2007-08 PDO: Transiting to cool phase as La Niña fades

30. Wet Autumn Temperature Precip

31. Wet Winter… and possibly coolest in years, but still only “EC”

32. Another factor in seasonal forecasts PNW December-January-February temperatures

33. The Bottom line moderate La Niña underway tilts the odds toward cool/wet, better-than-average snowpack Additional influence from PDO might come too late to offset another factor… – Persistent warming trends moderate La Niña underway tilts the odds toward cool/wet, better-than-average snowpack Additional influence from PDO might come too late to offset another factor… – Persistent warming trends See http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

34. CPC Forecasts from Sept 20