1. The Greenhouse Effect

6. SPM 3

8. Concentration of Carbon Dioxide and Methane Have Risen Greatly Since Pre-Industrial Times Carbon dioxide: 33% riseMethane: 100% rise The MetOffice. Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and Research. BW 5

10. Variations of the Earth’s surface temperature for the past 140 years SPM 1a

11. Variations of the Earth’s surface temperature for the past 1,000 years SPM 1b

13. Certainties Existence of natural greenhouse effect Greenhouse gases increasing Temperature increasing –1998 the hottest in at least 1000 years. Sea levels rising –4 -10” over century

14. Uncertainties Timing of atmospheric warming, glaciers The effects of increased cloudiness Uneven health and ecological impacts Unanticipated events

15. Effects of global warming

16. People at Risk from a 44 cm sea-level rise by 2080 Assuming 1990s Level of Flood Protection Source: R. Nicholls, Middlesex University in the U.K. Meteorological Office. 1997. Climate Change and Its Impacts: A Global Perspective.

17. Sea-level transgression scenarios for Bangladesh Adapted from Milliman et al. (1989).

19. Forest fires in drying forests

20. Percent of USA with above normal proportion of total annual precipitation from -day extreme events (2” +) Karl et al. 1996 BW 7

21. Changes in rainfall with doubled CO 2 >25.6 Daily rainfall class (mm day –1 ) 0.2-0.40.4-0.80.8-1.61.6-3.23.2-6.46.4-12.812.8-25.6 160 140 120 80 60 40 20 0 –20 100 Change in frequency (%) 40°N40°S Australian land points

22. Melting of alpine glaciers

23. Melting of alpine glaciers 1941 and 2004

24. Melting of ice caps

25. Melting of sea ice, permafrost

26. Other impacts Tropical diseases, insects move north Loss of agricultural land End of ecosystems that cannot shift

28. Future goals? Reduce CO 2 emissions, change economy World-wide shift to non-fossil energy Increased energy efficiency

29. 29 CO 2 emissions per capita

31. 1997 Kyoto Protocol Cut gases to under 1990 levels by 2012 China, India exempted for present Europeans met most goals U.S. would have to cut energy use 40%; Bush withdrew 2001

32. Energy growth rates

33. Conservation Homes –insulation, less heat, efficient appliances Vehicles –Drive less, higher mpg Industry –Less waste, renewable and efficient energy Land use –More tress (carbon sinks), no sprawl

35. Proposal for 2100 energy use Renewables (solar, wind, hydro) 50% Biomass 30% (5x present use) Nuclear phased out Fossil fuels 18% (down from 80%)

36. Mtc 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 1980200020202040206020802100 2120 CO2 emissions (1990 -2100) Year

37. Global energy websites World Resources Institute www.wri.org World Energy Council www.worldenergy.org/ World Energy Assessment www.undp.org/seed/eap/activities/wea/ UN Development Program www.undp.org/seed/eap/