1. Italy: issues in dematerialization and environmental load dispacement Valeria Andreoni Valeria Andreoni - Department of Economics, University of Bologna, Italy Marco Duriavig - Marco Duriavig - Department of Economy, Society and Territory University of Udine, Italy Degrowth conference – Paris 18, 19 april 2008

2. SUSTAINABILITY is a complex issue: different meanings, contents, perspective and approaches: ECO-EFFICIENCY approach Has been the most important approach for the Sustainable Development of the Bruntland Report. SCALE approach Is a key elements of Sustainable Degrowth

3. ECO-EFFICIENCY APPROACH: De-Linking Economy from its BioPhysical Constraints 1)DEMATERIALIZATION: (Malembaum 1978) The throughput per unit of production may decrease over time (Malembaum 1978) 2)ENVIRONMENTAL KUZNETS CURVE: 2) ENVIRONMENTAL KUZNETS CURVE: Economic growth is good for the environment because it seems existing an empirical relation between per capita income and some measures of environmentl quality Economic Growth InnovationInvestments Tecnical Progress Reduce the Material/Energetic Input of economy and reduce the Output (emissions and waste)

4. ENVIRONMENTAL KUZNETS CURVE: Link pollution and economic growth, and assume that all countries follow a development trajectory that growths through different stages over time. Environmental pressure increases faster than income at early stages of development and slows down relative to GDP growth at higher income level. ECONOMIC GROWTH CAN BE SUSTAINABLE

5. THEORETICAL MODEL: y it = α i + β 1 x it + β 2 x² it + β 3 x³ it + β 4 z it + ε it No relationship: β 1 = β 2 = β 3 ; A monotonic increasing (linear relationship): β 1 >0 and β 2 = β 3 = 0; A monotonic decreasing: β 1 <0 and β 2 = β 3 = 0; An inverted U-shape relationship (i.e. EKC): β 1 >0, β 2 0, β 2 <0, β 3 =0; A U-shaped relationship: β 1 0, β 3 =0; A cubic polynomial or N-shaped curve: β 1 >0, β 2 0; Opposite to the N-shaped curve: β 1 0, β 3 0, β 3 <0. Only one relationship provide the EKC hypothesis, and the turning point is obtained a x = - (β 1 / 2β 2 ).

6. ITALIAN CASE STUDY: We explored a linear, a quadratic and a cubic relationship to investigate if any EKC exists. TEST DE-MATERIALIZATION: We analysed an adaptation of the Environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis, considering the evolution of Total Material Requirement and Total Material Consumption (per capita) as the dependent variable and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita as the explanatory variable. TEST DE-POLLUTION: SOx, NOx and CO2 emissions have been related to GDP.

7. Linear correlation Quadratic correlation Cubic correlation TMR Y = 0,0019x-0,0311 R² = 0,9141 Y = 9,30E-08x²-1,35E-03x+2,86E+01 R² = 0,923 Y = -1E-11x³ +8E-07x² -0,0139x +101,81 R² = 0,9232 TMC y = 0,0009x+11,455 R² = 0,6897 y = 2E-08x²+0,0001x+18,343 R² = 0,6913 y = 2E-11x³-1E-06x²+0,0189x-91,544 R² = 0,6952 SOx Y = -0,0017x+0,0325 R² = 0,9952 Y = -4E-07x²-0,0017x+0,0325 R² = 0,9952 y = -5E-06x³+0,0001x²-0,0022x+0,0332 R² = 0,9961 NOx y = -0,0011x+0,0376 R² = 0,9372 y = -8E-05x²-0,0001x+0,0353 R² = 0,9785 y = 1E-05x³-0,0003x²+0,0013x + 0,0335 R² = 0,9888 CO2 y = 0,0743x+7,4157 R² = 0,7544 y = 0,0086x²-0,0369x+7,6753 R² = 0,8478 y = -0,0021x³+0,0493x²-0,2572x+7,9602 R² = 0,896

8. 19802001∆∆% Used Domestic Extraction754.783.954747.810.442- 6.973.512- 0,92% Biomass249.423.715179.685.275- 69.738.440- 28% Fossil fuels12.607.92615.057.170+ 2.449.244+ 19,4% Minerals492.752.313553.067.997+ 60.315.684+ 12% Unused Domestic Extraction124.301.96186.445.648- 37.856.313- 30,5% Biomass11.897.08719.271.971+ 7.374.884+ 62% Minerals34.903.61219.682.377- 15.221.235- 43,5% Other77.501.26247.491.300- 30.009.962- 38,7% Imports229.959.493330.035.125+ 100.075.632+ 43,5% Indirect flows imports628.246.9081.156.049.017+ 527.802.109+ 84% Total Material Requirement1.737.292.3162.320.340.232+ 583.047.916+ 33,6% Export57.945.200123.117.502+ 65.172.302+ 112% Indirect flows export137.044.321420.917.109283.872.788+ 207% Total Material Consumption1.542.302.7951.776.305.621234.002.826+ 15% Material Flow Accounting (Tons) – Italy

9. INDIRECT FLOWS Allow to estimate the impacts (e.g. habitat destruction, soil erosion, socio-ecological conflicts) of material requirement of economy. In the Italian case study, indirect flows (imports) augmented while indirect flows (national extraction) have been reduced. In the same period the protection of national territory has been tripled.

10. ORIGIN OF IMPORTS: Europe is the main trade partner of Italy (almost the 50% of the total exchanges, in physical terms). The main Italian imports are energetic resources and transformed products, that come from developed countries but the raw materials can be originally extracted in the developing countries. Example: “petroleum products” are mainly imported from European countries, differently than “crude petroleum” that is mainly imported from developing countries (Africa).

11. SCALE APPROACH: Is a key issue for SUSTAINABLE DE-GROWTH - CONSUMPTION: To reduce the quantitative scale of consumption (material and energy). Economic growth can’t reduce the biophysical constraints. - PRODUCTION: To reduce the spatial scale of production. New economic system based on local production - Reduce international trade pollution - Reduce environmental load displacement

12. Km 0: agricultural products that cover few (0) kms FARMARKET - local market with products of local farms (400 markets – 8000 farms) MENU Km 0 - bar and restaurants that propose menù only with products of local farms RES: net of single person, groups, farms, social cooperative, associations that promote and pratice a different economic approach GAS - groups of persons, selforganized, that practice solidal purchase (local farms and social cooperatives)

13. SHORT CHAIN PRODUCTION/CONSUMPTION - Improves product’s quality - Reduces costs - Supports local economy - Reduces CO2 emissions - Promotes solidarity Italy: with more than 8000 municipalities, may be a suitable country to start this process of scale reduction.

14. .....TO FINISH or TO START.... WHAT IS SUSTAINABLE DEGROWTH? IS A ISSUE OF SCALE: - PRODUCTION - CONSUMPTION WE PROPOSE A SUSTAINABLE DEGROWTH BASED ON CULTURAL CHANGE: INDIVIDUAL – CHANGE IN LIFESTILE SOCIAL – CHANGE THE PRODUCTIVE SYSTEM

15. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION… VALERIAS@TISCALINET.ITMARCO.DURIAVIG@UNIUD.IT