1. National Child Welfare Resource Center for Organizational Improvement Teleconference Program THURSDAY, APRIL 13, 2006 Rereporting and Recurrence Data: Implications for Strategies John D. Fluke Walter R. McDonald & Associates, Inc.

2. Survival Analysis Plot for 2002 CM Data: Recurrence During a 12 Month Period, Over 75% Recurred Within 6 Months (n = 210,641 – 26 States)

3. Maltreatment Factors

4. Post-Investigation Service and Recurrence

5. Slide 5April 6, 2006 Child Maltreatment 2004: Overall Recurrence Trends Percent Recurrence in 6 Months 20002001200220032004 Number of States 34394245 National Average 8.68.98.88.58.1 Number of States Meeting Standard* 1013161719 Percent of States Meeting Standard 29.433.338.137.842.2 *National Standard is 6.1%

6. 6 Month Recurrence Findings Over Time: Comparisons of Interest Year 19992000*200120022003*2004* Number of Children 142,72697,406186,220196,774146,509161,721 States 15 21262325 Rate of Recurrence in 6 Months for These States 7.4%7.9%7.6%7.1%6.9% Risk Ratios Prior Victim 2.713.322.142.032.531.84 Neglect/Medical Neglect 1.441.271.441.461.311.23 Post-Investigation Services 1.161.661.501.441.201.35 Child Disability 1.511.61 Father Only Perpetrator 0.870.890.910.850.86 *Does not include California

7. Slide 7April 6, 2006 Percentage of Children with Subsequent Reports Over Time (nine States) (R-R ) (R-V ) (V-V )

8. Slide 8April 6, 2006 Subsequent Events Within Three Years: Pattern Diagram for Children Reported 1998-1999 N=803,320 (Nine States)

9. Slide 9April 6, 2006 Single Event Rereporting (R-R)

10. Slide 10April 6, 2006 Factors Associated with Increased Risk of Rereporting (R-R) Two year follow-up (N= 495,900, eight States) Reporting Source (Social Services)Caretaker Non-Professional and Other Sources1.14Alcohol1.12 ChildrenCPS Younger (decreases from 2 to 18)0.92 - 0.53Initial Victim1.11 Female1.31Services1.35 White (rc African American)1.19Placement2.18 Multi Race (rc African American)1.53Interaction Disabled1.47Victim and Service0.93 Victim and Placement0.35

11. Slide 11April 6, 2006 Interaction of Services and Victimization for Rereporting

12. Slide 12April 6, 2006 Single Event Recurrence (V-V)

13. Slide 13April 6, 2006 Factors Associated with Increased Risk of Subsequent Victimization (V-V) Five year follow-up (N= 190,552 eight States) Reporting SourceMaltreatment Day Care and Foster Care Providers1.53Initial Neglect1.35 Non-Professional and Other Sources 1.27Other Abuse Only1.20 ChildrenCaretaker Younger (decreases from 1 to 18)0.86 - 0.46Alcohol (trend)1.12 White (rc African American, trend)1.11CPS Native American (rc African American) 1.53Services1.57 Placement0.88