1. World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) Report Gilbert Brunet WWRP/JSC Chair THORPEX 9th Session of ICSC, WMO, Geneva, 21-22 September 2011

3. Highlights of WWRP The WWRP has promoted successfully important end-to-end integrated research, development and demonstration projects to advance understanding of high-impact weather processes, improve forecasting technique, establishing new databases, facilitate the transfer of research results into operational practice and better utilization of forecast products by end users. These are the – THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE); – Beijing 08, Summer Olympic Games, China; – Science of Nowcasting Olympic Weather for Vancouver 2010 (SNOW V10) project, Canada; BAMS 2010

4. Highlights of WWRP – International field campaign for tropical cyclones and targeting ATReC (Atlantic THORPEX Regional Campaign), THORPEX Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T- PARC) and the USA Winter Storms Reconnaissance (WSR) flights; – Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC); – Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System (SDS ‑ WAS); – The Shanghai Multi-Hazard Early Warning System during the Shanghai World EXPO, China in 2010; – Establishment of three monsoon data centers (in Colorado State University, USA; in Nagoya University, Japan; and in Beijing Climate Center, CMA, China);

5. Highlights of WWRP International Polar Year (IPY) THORPEX; Mesoscale Alpine Project Demonstration-Phase (MAP D-Phase), Switzerland; European Coordinated Experiments 2007 including the Convective and Orographically induced Precipitation Study (COPS). Showing the way to Integrated Mesoscale Research Environment (IMRE); Sea ice snow ocean 1-D, multi-layer snow model 1-D, blowing snow model

6. COPS-TRACKS Transport and Chemical Conversion in Convective Systems (COPS-TRACKS) Period: 16.07. – 02.08.2007 EUMETSAT EUMETSAT special satellite operation modes and data Period: 01.06. – 31.08.2007 (Aoshima et al. MetZet 2008, accepted) D-PHASE Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region (D-PHASE), WWRP Forecast and Demonstration Project (FDP) Period: 01.06. – 30.11.2007 (Rotach et al. BAMS 2008, submitted) ETReC 2007 European THORPEX Regional Campaign 2007 (ETReC 2007) Period: 01.07. – 01.08.2007 European Coordinated Experiments 2007 GOP General Observations Period (GOP) Period: full year of 2007 (Crewell et al. MetZet 2008, submitted) COPS) Convective and Orographically- induced Precipitation Study (COPS), WWRP) Research and Development Project (RDP) Period: 01.06. – 31.08.2007 Wulfmeyer et al. BAMS 2008 AMF Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program Mobile Facility (AMF) Period: 01.04. – 31.12.2007

7. 4 th International Verification Methods Workshop (Finnish Meteorological Institute; June 2009) Tutorial 26 students – 24 countries; many from SWFDP countries 3 days Lectures and hands-on (took tools home) Group projects - presented at workshop Workshop ~100 participants Topics: Ensembles, Users, Spatial methods, Tools, Uncertainty, Weather warning verification, Evaluation of seasonal and climate predictions

8. Highlights of WWRP The WWRP has established new organisational structures and has promoted activities to support WMO Strategic thrust by: – establishing the WWRP Societal and Economic Research and Applications (SERA) Working Group to advance the science of the social and economic application of weather-related information and services in collaboration with ICSU Integrated Research on Disaster Risk (IRDR) Institute; – participating in the EC-Research Task Team report on the “Challenges and opportunities in research to enable improved products and new services in climate, weather, water and environment.”; WAY FORWARD: i) Interdisciplinary Summer School Program: a first step toward informing the next generation of research scientists the excitement and opportunities of Earth-system prediction and ii) WWRP Earth-system Prediction Conference in 2013.

9. The completion of the first Strategic Plan for the Implementation of WMO’s World Weather Research Programme (WWRP): 2009 – 2017 (WMO/TD-No. 1505). The WWRP strategic plan integrates WMO Member activities in THORPEX, tropical meteorology, mesoscale weather forecasting, nowcasting, verification and societal and economic applications with those of partners in global and regional forecast research and Earth observation. The plan maintains and reinforces the traditional strong links with GAW, the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and other WMO activities. Implementation activities outlined in the first Strategic Plan will address cross cutting activities at the interface of nowcating-mesoscale, mesoscale-global and weather-climate prediction research, research-operations that are related to the delivery of a weather and climate services; in particular, ensemble weather prediction systems, tropical convection, polar prediction; and sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction. Legacy of THORPEX. New WWRP organizational structure due for the next CAS congress. WWRP - General

10. Implementation of the CAS-XV decision to establish a new 10- member WWRP Joint Scientific Committee (WWRP/JSC) to oversee the scientific progress and development of the WWRP. JSC

11. JSC Committee Members Chairman of the Joint Scientific Committee for OPAG-WWRP Gilbert BRUNET, Environment Canada, Dorval, Québec, gilbert.brunet@ec.gc.cagilbert.brunet@ec.gc.ca AFIESIMAMA Ernest ernafies@yahoo.com DOLE Randy randall.m.dole@noaa.gov DUCROCQ Veronique veronique.ducrocq@meteo.fr GOLDING Brian Brian.golding@metoffice.gov.uk MILLER Martin martin.miller@ecmwf.int LEE Dong-Kyou dklee@snu.ac.kr SAULO Celeste saulo@cima.fcen.uba.ar SMITH Neville n.smith@bom.gov.au PARSONS David dparsons@ou.edu

12. 5th International Verification Methods Workshop (Melbourne, Australia, 1-7 December) Meeting of WG SERA (Beijing, China 31 October, 2 November 2011) WCRP Open Science Conference (Denver, USA, 24-28 October) Parallel Sessions: Session B1: Prediction from Subseasonal to Multi-decadal Scales (conveners: D. Anderson, G. Brunet, B. Kirtman, I.-S. Kang)Prediction from Subseasonal to Multi-decadal Scales 9th THORPEX GIFS-TIGGE WG meeting (Geneva, WMO Headquarters, 31 August - 2 September 2011) 9th THORPEX GIFS-TIGGE WG meeting Fourth Meeting of the THORPEX DAOS Working Group (Exeter, UK, 27-28 June 2011) Fourth Meeting of the THORPEX DAOS Working Group Fourth meeting of the THORPEX Predictability and Dynamical Processes Working Group (ECMWF, UK, 21 June 2011) Fourth meeting of the THORPEX Predictability and Dynamical Processes Working Group 2010-11 WWRP meetings

13. Meetings relevant to THORPEX are Workshop on "Representing model uncertainty and error in numerical weather and climate prediction models" (ECMWF, UK, 20-24 June 2011); Workshop on "Representing model uncertainty and error in numerical weather and climate prediction models" THORPEX European Regional meeting (Karlsruhe, Germany, 24-27 May); THORPEX European Regional meeting YOTC International Science Symposium and 8th AMY International Workshop (Beijing, China, 16-19 May 2011) YOTC International Science Symposium and 8th AMY International Workshop Fourth meeting of the WWRP JSC (Geneva, WMO Headquarters, 21-24 February) ; Fourth meeting of theWWRP JSC Joint WWRP-THORPEX / World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) workshop on “Sub- seasonal to seasonal prediction”, United Kingdom in 2010; WWRP, THORPEX, WCRP Workshop, “Improvement of Weather and Environmental Prediction in Polar Regions”, Norway in 2010. 2010-11 WWRP meetings

14. World Meteorological Congress WWRP World Meteorological Congress Polar Prediction project – “Congress acknowledged the success of the ten projects of the International Polar Year THORPEX cluster, and supported the CAS recommendation that, as a legacy of the IPY, a THORPEX Polar Research project be established to improe the understanding of the impact of high impact weather over Polar Regions. Congress also emphasized the need to have an adequate observational and telecommunication network for the Polar Regions in order to provide the relevant high impact weather services for the region. “ “Congress strongly urged all those concerned to ensure that such a Polar Prediction Research project is established in support of, inter alia, the Global Framework for Climate Services. Furthermore, the EC-PORS, at its Second Session in Hobart in October 2010, agreed to the concept of a major decadal initiative to develop a Polar Prediction System (Global Integrated Polar Prediction System - GIPPS). Congress recognized the importance of effective coordination between these various initiatives, and invited Members to contribute as appropriate. “ Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction – “Congress noted that the JSCs of the WWRP and the JSC for WCRP and WWRP/THORPEX ICSC set up an appropriate collaborative structure to carry out and international research initiative on sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasting. This initiative should be closely coordinated with the CBS infrastructure for long-range forecasting and with the future developments of climate service delivery and the Global Framework for Climate Services. “ “Congress was pleased to note that the WWRP-THORPEX / WCRP workshop on “Sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction” (Exeter, December 2010) had recommended the establishment of a Panel/Project for Sub-seasonal Prediction Research and Applications - Panel members being drawn from WWRP- THORPEX, WCRP, CBS, CCl, JCOMM, CHy, CAS and CAgM and their relevant programme bodies. “

15. Sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction The Report from the Workshop on “Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction” (Met Office, Exeter 1 to 3 December 2010) has been published to the web (http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/wwrp/new/documents/recomme ndations_final.pdfhttp://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/wwrp/new/documents/recomme ndations_final.pdf The major Workshop recommendation was that a Project for sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction research should be established Planing Group should include representatives from WWRP-THORPEX, WCRP, CBS and CCl and their relevant programme bodies. The first task for the Planning Group should be the preparation of an Implementation Plan, which is consistent with the contents of the Workshop Report and Recommendations. 99

16. Sub-seasonal contd. The Implementation Plan should give high priority to: Sponsorship of a few international research activities The establishment of collaboration and co-ordination between operational centres undertaking sub-seasonal prediction to: – ensure, where possible, consistency between operational approaches to enable the production of data bases of operational sub-seasonal predictions to support the application of standard verification procedures and a wide-ranging programme of research Facilitating the wide-spread research use of the data collected for the CHFP - Climate-system Historical Forecast Project (and its associate projects), TIGGE and YOTC for research The establishment of a series of regular Workshops on sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction  10

17. Sub-seasonal contd. the WWRP/SERA Working Group and the WCRP should outline plans for a number of regional projects. It is proposed that a Planning Group, supported by a WMO consultant with an equal number of members from both WWRP and WCRP, is established to prepare an Implementation Plan for a “Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction Research Project”. Drs. Frederic Vitart (ECMWF) and Andrew Robertson (IRI) are the co- Chairs of the Planning Group and should be approved at this meeting.  11

18. Polar Prediction Project The Report from the Workshop on “Improvement of Weather and Environmental Prediction in Polar Regions” (Met No Oslo, 6 to 8 October 2010) has been published to the web http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/wwrp/new/documents/Polar_NWP_ Meeting_Outcomes_FINAL.pdf The outcome of this workshop was the establishment of a basis for an IPY legacy project which is intended to provide a framework for cooperative international research and development efforts to improve high impact weather, climate, and environment Three forecast prediction ranges are of interest: short-term regional forecasts (one hour to 48 hours) medium-range forecasts (one day to two weeks) sub-seasonal to one season forecasts  12

19. Polar Prediction Contd., It was clear from the workshop discussions on “gaps” that many of the problems are common to all prediction systems (including climate) whatever the range – notably, problems with the parameterization of atmospheric, oceanic, and land-surface physical processes. Such a legacy project would aid the coordination of current and future polar prediction activities and increase awareness of the need for new resources for polar prediction research It should be based on a few NWP internationally coordinated polar initiatives (new or existing). Based on the outcome of the Oslo workshop and the feedback from EC- PORS and potential partners, a Polar Prediction Project, similar to the Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC) project, supported by WWRP and THORPEX and well coordinated with the Polar Project in WCRP, should be established  13

20. Polar Prediction Contd., This project will require a Steering Group (consisting of members with scientific and operational expertise and representatives of the user community). The first task for the Steering Group (supported by a WMO consultant) will be the preparation of an Implementation Plan, which includes estimates of resources and a strategy for the coordination of polar prediction research. Thomas Jung is a Chair of the Steering Group and should be approved in this meeting. If the plan is well received by the community, and if the YOTC model is followed, a Project Office should be established at an institution with a major interest in polar prediction.  14

21. Thank you! Merci! Arigato!