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Ecosystem composition and CO 2 flux variability Corinne Le Quéré Max-Planck-Institut für Biogeochemie, Jena, Germany now at University of East Anglia/British Antarctic Survey with : Erik T. Buitenhuis and Olivier Aumont
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1980-2000 5.9 3.2 0.9 1.8 Fossil fuel emissions Atmospheric increase Land sink Ocean sink CO 2 budget (PgC/y)
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1980-2000 100% 54% 15% (42%) 31% Fossil fuel emissions Atmospheric increase Land sink Ocean sink CO 2 budget (PgC/y)
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Sabine et al., 2004 Anthropogenic C 60S60N depth (m) 0 55 umol/kg DOWN
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Sabine et al., 2004; Key et al., 2004; CDIAC Total C Anthropogenic C UP DOWN 60S60N depth (m) 60S60N 0 55 1800 2400 umol/kg
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Sabine et al., 2004; Key et al., 2004; CDIAC Total C Anthropogenic C UP DOWN 60S60N depth (m) 60S60N 1800 2400 umol/kg
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oceanic carbon cycle Silicifi ers N 2 fixers DMS producer s Calcifiers Nano phytoplankt on Fe NO 3 SiSi CaCO 3 DM S PO4PO4 NH 4 DOM biological activity 11 45 34 physical transport 11 33 CO 2 CO 2 + H 2 O + CO 2- 3 2HCO - 3 chemical reactions 90
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(slide from J. Sarmiento)
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winter mixed layer depth biological export production UP DOWN Schlitzer 2001; World Ocean Atlas 2001
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Silicifi ers N 2 fixers DMS producer s Calcifiers Nano phytoplankt on Fe NO 3 SiSi CaCO 3 DM S PO4PO4 NH 4 DOM biological activity 11 45 34 physical transport 11 33 CO 2 + H 2 O + CO 2- 3 2HCO - 3 chemical reactions UP DOWN
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pico nano micro nano/micro meso macro Photosynth. Bacteria, N2-fixers Calcifiers, DMS-producers, autothr. dinoflagellates diatoms Ciliates, heterotr. flagellates Copepods, euphausids Salps, pteropods bacteria phyto- plankton zoo- plankton ecosystem composition
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bacteria phyto- plankton zoo- plankton Export 11 PgC/y Respiration 34 PgC/y Primary Production 45 PgC/y
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NPZD model Phyto PO 4 DOCZoo POC export CO 2 flux
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Geider et al., 1997
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Aumont et al., 2003 PISCES model (NNNPPZZDDD) CO 2 flux big
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can we constrain complex ecosystem models?
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yes
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Ocean Physical Model: OPA General Circulation model (Madec et al. 2001) NCEP daily forcing 0.5-1.5 o x2 o resolution 10 vertical levels in top 100 m (30 total) Thermodynamic Sea Ice model (Louvain La Neuve, Fichefet et al.) Nutrients restored under the Mixed layer (50<mld<100)
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Buitenhuis et al., in prep.; Hirst and Kiorboe 2002; Ikeda 2001; Hirst and Bunker 2003 chl T growth T T mortality growth respiration Meso zooplankton rates (d -1 ) 1.43.0 0.6 2.5 PISCES-T model
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can we evaluate complex ecosystem models?
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yes
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PISCES PISCES-T Observations (SeaWiFS) Surface chla (mgChl/m 3 )
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PISCES PISCES-T from observations (Schlitzer 2001) export of C (mol/m 2 /y)
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PISCES PISCES-T Observations (WOA, FSU, CPR) Meso-zooplankton (uM)
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PISCES Interannual chla variability (mgChl/m3) PISCES-T Observations (SeaWiFS) 0.1
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PISCES Interannual chla variability (percent) PISCES-T Observations (SeaWiFS) 40 20 60
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what do complex ecosystem models bring?
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freedom
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NPZD DGOM Interannual chla variability (mgChl/m3) PISCES-T Observations (SeaWiFS) Calcifiers PO 4 Fe PO 4 DOCZoo POC export
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Buitenhuis et al., in prep. Dynamic Green Ocean Model (NNNPPPZZDDD) CO 2 flux Calcifiers PO 4 Fe big
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NPZD DGOM Surface chla (mgChl/m3) PISCES-T Observations (SeaWiFS)
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NPZD DGOM Interannual chla variability (mgChl/m3) PISCES-T Observations (SeaWiFS)
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NPZD DGOM Interannual chla variability (percent) PISCES-T Observations (SeaWiFS)
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NPZD DGOM Surface chla (mgChl/m3) PISCES-T Observations (SeaWiFS) mean Interannual standard deviation 0.6 0.3
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Log (meso-zoo/chl) Log (chl) NPZD PISCES-T Observations DGOM
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can complex ecosystem models help our understanding?
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can complex ecosystem models bring new information?
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does it matter for CO 2 fluxes?
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CO 2 sink (PgC/y) Export (PgC/y) 4 10 14 0
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oceanic carbon cycle Silicifi ers N 2 fixers DMS producer s Calcifiers Nano phytoplankt on Fe NO 3 SiSi CaCO 3 DM S PO4PO4 NH 4 DOM biological activity 11 45 34 physical transport 11 33 CO 2 CO 2 + H 2 O + CO 2- 3 2HCO - 3 chemical reactions 90
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oceanic carbon cycle Silicifi ers N 2 fixers DMS producer s Calcifiers Nano phytoplankt on Fe NO 3 SiSi CaCO 3 DM S PO4PO4 NH 4 DOM biological activity 11 45 34 physical transport 11 33 CO 2 CO 2 + H 2 O + CO 2- 3 2HCO - 3 chemical reactions 901.8
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oceanic carbon cycle Silicifi ers N 2 fixers DMS producer s Calcifiers Nano phytoplankt on Fe NO 3 SiSi CaCO 3 DM S PO4PO4 NH 4 DOM biological activity 11-1 45 34+1 physical transport 11 33 CO 2 CO 2 + H 2 O + CO 2- 3 2HCO - 3 chemical reactions 901.8 – 0.8
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1980-2000 100% 54% 15% (42%) 31% Fossil fuel emissions Atmospheric increase Land sink Ocean sink CO 2 budget (PgC/y)
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conclusions simple ecosystem models are too tightly linked to ocean physics but easy to use complex ecosystem models are difficult to parameterize but add degrees of freedom both are needed
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related posters Thursday: Leticia Cotrim da Cunha, Impact of river sources of P, Si and Fe on coastal biogeochemistry Friday: Manfredi Manizza, Bio-optical impact of phytoplankton on ocean physics and air-sea fluxes
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71147 2350 Standard deviation in winter MLD Observations (WOA 2001) OPA model
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PISCES PISCES-T observations (WOA, FSU, CPR) Log (meso-zoo/chl) Log (chl)
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240, 1185, 35525 total C latitude 60S60N depth (m) 2000 2400 umol/kg 500 winter mixed layer depth
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CO 2 variability (Pg C/y) MIT model Hamburg model OPA model (Peylin, Bousquet, Le Quéré et al., submitted)
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northern sub-tropics (Peylin, Bousquet, Le Quéré et al., submitted) CO 2 variability (mol/m 2 /y) MIT model OPA model observations
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