1. Modeling Domestic Transitions, Climatic Change, and Livelihoods: A Case Study of Mossi Households, Burkina Faso Colin Thor West Research Assistant Professor of Anthropology Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER) University of Alaska Anchorage (UAA)

2. Pugkêenga (A) and Independent (B) Mossi residence patterns Have Mossi extended households disappeared? If not, why? How do Mossi domestic transitions articulate with larger processes of climatic and social change? Desiccation, livelihood diversification, and agricultural intensification have promoted household extension Rissiam, 2002 – G. Tappan

3. Pugkêenga and Independent Households Independent Pugkêenga 45 30 50 89

4. Pugkêenga and independent fields Pugkêenga Independent Household – Unit of production, consumption, and reproduction Operationalized – A group that farms together in the same field, pools resources, eats from a common granary and recognizes the authority of single head

5. Pugkêenga and independent granaries:

6. Africa and Burkina Faso

7. 97 household surveys covering: - demographics - grain production - assets such as animals, cattle, ploughs, etc. Fieldwork conducted in 2004

8. Climatic change: Sahelian desiccation From Bell and Lamb 2006: 5344 Annual precipitation index for the Sahel (from 11 o to 18 o N, west of 10 o E)

9. Climatic change: regional desiccation Data provided by the Direction de la Méteorologie du Burkina Faso famineexodus WET DESICCATION

10. Social change: agricultural intensification, livelihood diversification, SWC, cattle-raising

11. Comparison of predicted v. observed NDVI for 13.3 o N, -1.5 o W - Analysis prepared by S. Herrmann, PhD SWC and “greening of the Sahel”

12. Sustainable livelihoods framework DFID

13. Sustainability – Davies, 1996

14. Mossi mixed subsistence livelihood system

15. Are pugkêenga households disappearing? Comparison of Pugkêenga Frequencies with Other Case Studies AuthorKohlerImbsWest Village(s) Province Year fieldwork conducted Dakola Yatenga 1965-1968 Kumtaabo Yatenga 1969-1972, 1973 Loulouka, Sakou, Kouka Bam 2004 N6316297 IndependentCount4314542 % of Sample68.389.543.3 PugkêengaCount201755 % of Sample31.710.556.7

16. Pugkêenga households and population density Pugkêenga v. Independent Household Frequencies by Village Household Type Population Density (persons/km 2 ) High (135)Medium (42)Low (11) LouloukaSakouKouka N323531 IndependentCount101814 % within village31.3%51.4%43.3% PugkêengaCount221716 % within village68.8%48.6%53.3%

17. Pugkêenga households and social capital Mann-Whitney Z = -4.425, one-tailed p = 0.000

18. Chayanov consumer/producer ratios Based on Toulmin, 1992:260 TABLE 2 Chayanov Consumer-Producer Weights Member Category Weight Consumer IndexProducer Index Males71 +0.60.0 51-700.80.5 15-501.0 Females71 +0.60.0 51-700.70.5 15-500.90.6 Males/Females< 150.60.3

19. Pugkêenga households and Chayanov consumer/producer ratios Pugkêenga

20. Pugkêenga households and grain production * one-tail p < 0.05 using Mann-Whitney U test * * * * * * * *

21. Pugkêenga households and animal assets Mann-Whitney Z = -1.16, one-tailed p = 0.041 mean = 2.95mean = 6.57

22. Pugkêenga households and animal assets Total Monetized Value of Animal Assets by Household Adult Equivalents (AE) Household TypeNMean (CFA/AE) Sum of Ranks Mean Rank Value Independent42431831816.543.3 Pugkêenga53544052743.551.8 Mann-Whitney Z = -1.495, one-tailed p = 0.0675

23. Pugkêenga and independent households Mossi Livelihood Model Agent Variables Summary Based on Survey Means Variable nameDescription Values PugkêengaIndependent grainAmount of grain (kg)21561490 assetsAmount of animal assets (CFA)653148218333 consumHousehold consumption value12.156.82 prodHousehold production value8.244.60 chayanovHousehold Chayanov ratio (C/P)1.471.50 pugkeenga?Household is a pugkêenga ?TrueFalse Pukeenga_model

24. Initial scenario – 30 runs

25. Terroir scenario – 30 runs

26. Contemporary scenario – 30 runs

27. Conclusions: - Pugkêenga households persist - Pugkêenga households and their livelihood assets enhance their sustainability under conditions of desiccation, agricultural intensification, and livelihood diversification - Agent-based modeling is a powerful tool for exploring the contingent nature of domestic processes in terms of climatic and social change

28. Acknowledgements: UofA Marshall Foundation Dissertation Fellowship UofA Global Change IDP Dissertation Improvement Grant Arizona State Museum Raymond Thompson Dissertation Grant UofA Social and Behavioral Sciences Research Institute Graduate Research Grant Institut de la Démographique et de la Statistique -BF PATECORE - BF Institut de la Géographie du BurkinaMETEO - BF NOAA Global and Climate Change Post-doc Fellowship Program