1. Land Use and Transportation Models G111/211a Draft Notes

2. New era Policies aim at more complex processes Sustainability is becoming increasingly more popular – possibly accepted practice(?!) Cause and effects between transportation and land use are not one-way linear sequences Short, medium, and long term relationships can now be modeled using somewhat sophisticated tools and fast computers

3. CAAA – ISTEA - TEA-21 LAND USE AIR QUALITYTRANSPORTATION INTEGRATED MODELS = AN ACCOUNT FOR TWO WAY RELATIONSHIPS

4. It is a different and changing policy world – European Union, Japan, Canada, Australia, and USA Mobility vs Accessibility

5. Mobility vs accessibility policies (Kennedy et al, 2005)

6. -Policy Coordination with Packages of Policy Actions in the EU -Effective Governance = Integration of Policies = New Needs for Policy Action Assessments = More Informative Models

7. Transportation and Land Use Land Development --> Location Choices Location Choices --> Activities Location Choices -  Car Ownership Activities -> Travel Travel -> Flows Flows -> Activity Patterns Use Spatial Distribution AND MANY MORE See next

8. Example: Mobility as Transit Mobility Use land use to increase transit use (TCRP study)

9. Seven Groups of Factors (1&2/7) Increase Residential Density Activity locations closer to each other Transit service more economical Other factors need to be considered Neighborhood Design Mixed land use Transit friendly designs (think of turning radius) Mode separation Size!

10. Seven Groups of Factors (3&4/7) Transit Supply Situational barriers System & Service (availability, frequency, timing/flexibility) Knowledge/information Negative predisposition Cost/time/comfort Car Ownership Number of cars Types of cars Specialization = more use? Costs (perceived and real)

11. Seven Groups of Factors (5&6/7) Socioeconomics Age Gender Income Employment/Occupation Social Role Workplace/Employment Density Bring the CBD back! High density suburban centers Campus examples Parking?

12. The Seventh Factor Accessibility Connectivity Amount of activities Closeness

13. These factors are not acting alone – mediation!

14. Wegener’s simplified cycle

15. Wegener’s LU/T Feedback Cycle

16. Lagged Relationships

17. Theories Spatial Interaction (Distance decay functions) Urban Land Markets (Bid rent) Waves Theories – Urban Life Cycles (Rise and Fall) Social Ecology (Clusters and specialized centers) Action-space analyses -> optimal space and location for activities Time-budgets -> time geography -> activity-based approaches NEXT??????

18. The Von Thunen Model of Market, Production, and Distance R = Y(p-c) – Yfm R = Rent per unit of land. Y = Yield per unit of land. p = market price per unit of yield. c = Average production costs per unit of yield. m = Distance from market (in kilometers or miles). f = Freight rate per unit of yield and unit of distance. Assumptions: Isolation. There is one isolated market in an isolated state having no interactions (trade) with the outside. Ubiquitous land characteristics. The land surrounding the market in entirely flat and its fertility uniform. Transportation. It is assumed there are no transport infrastructures such as roads or rivers and that farmers are transporting their production to the market using horses and carts. Transportation costs are dependent of the type of commodity being transported to the market as well as the distance involved. http://people.hofstra.edu/geotrans/

19. The Isolated State von Thünen, 1826 See also: http://www.csiss.org/cla ssics/content/9

20. Lessons Learned Land Rent: Distance Decay

21. Central Places Christaller, 1933 A Central Place is a settlement or a nodal point that serves the area around with goods and services (Mayhew, 1997). Christaller's model also was based on the premise that all goods and services were purchased by consumers from the nearest central place, that the demands placed on all central places in the plain were similar, and that none of the central places made any excessive profit. See http://www.csiss.org/classics/c ontent/67

22. Bid-Rent Theory Alonso, 1964

23. Example: Bid rent theories Diamond sales in the CBD and agriculture in the periphery – residences obey a somewhat different law/rule

24. Retail Location Huff, 1964 Huff Retail Location Model – competitive with explicit macro- rules: see also http://www.belkcollege.u ncc.edu/mjkhouja/Locat e8.ppt#261,10,Single Facility Location Using Cross Median Approach

25. Household Location Park & Burgess, 1925 An evolutionary approach to urban ecology: http://www.csiss.org/classics /content/26

26. Burgess Model

27. Isard’s Hybrid Model Note the Corridors of development

28. Action Spaces Hägerstrand, 1970

29. The Brotchie Triangle

30. Interaction = travel time Dispersion = employment distance from City centre

31. Theoretical Expectations About Relationships

32. From Land Use to Transportation

36. Better Transportation -> Better Accessibility What happens to land use?

37. From Transportation to Land Use via Accessibility

39. From Transportation to Transportation

43. Ideal Designs Monocentric – Compact City Polycentric – Pockets of Paradise Dispersed Development – People Driven

45. Empirical (Data analysis) Studies General findings

46. From Land Use to Transport

48. Be Aware of Selectivity Issues People that select city centers different than people in suburbs People that select to live in large cities different than small town dwellers Large portions of decision making spheres largely neglected – school choice, effect of family and friends, family endowments, what else?

49. From Transportation to Land Use

50. From Transportation to Transportation

51. MODELS Many – different time and space resolutions and assumptions about behavior

52. What we need See Meyer and Miller chapter 6 And Miller in KG book

53. The Miller model – policies and models

54. Models in Practice

55. Three Main ways to Quantify Land Use Transport Interactions Hypothetically change land use and ask people what they will do differently Advantages and disadvantages Create experiments were we actually change land use and observe people behavior Advantages and disadvantages Build computer simulators with models that show these interactions and behavioral changes Advantages and disadvantages

56. The Models Developed

57. Waddell’s Taxonomy

59. Operational and Under Development Land Use Models

60. From TRB workshop by Miller – based on Knight and Trygg 1977

61. http://ntl.bts.gov/DOCS/ornl.html

62. Dynamics/Lags

63. Integration for what? Meplan – source Hunt/Miller TRB workshop

64. Idealized Model System (TCRP H-12)

65. Design & Modeling

66. Beyond todays LU/Trans

67. Websites www.acs.ucalgary.ca/~jabraham/ MEPLAN_and_Urban_Economics.PDF http://www.urbansim.org/ http://www.modelistica.com/tranus_english.htm http://www.mussa.cl/E_index.html http://www.civil.engineering.utoronto.ca/English/ILUTE-Research.html http://www.geosimulation.org/geosim/lutms.htm http://www.oregon.gov/ODOT/TD/TP/Modeling.shtml http://ntl.bts.gov/DOCS/ornl.html

68. What else can we change by design? Next Models in Practice & PROPOLIS Examples