1. Low Dissolved Oxygen in Hood Canal Hood Canal Dissolved Oxygen Program Jan Newton, Ph.D. Applied Physics Laboratory University of Washington

2. Tuesday, September 16, 2003 Hood Canal marine life struggling for oxygen By LISA STIFFLER SEATTLE POST-INTELLIGENCER REPORTERLISA STIFFLER Yesterday, the state Department of Fish and Wildlife indefinitely closed commercial and recreational fishing throughout the canal for all finfish except salmon and trout, as well as octopus and squid…

3. U.S. Coastal ‘Dead Zones’ Associated with Human Activity National attention in 2003 Pew Oceans Commission, 2003

4. Low oxygen in Hood Canal is not a new observation - UW: 1950’s observations (Collias et al., 1974 Washington Sea Grant) - UW-OSU 1970-80’s observations (e.g. Curl and Paulson, 1991, Puget Sound Research Conference Proceedings; Paulson, 1993, Mar. Chem.) - PSAMP comparison of Ecology (90’s) and UW (50’s) data (Newton et al., 1995, Puget Sound Research Conference Proceedings) - Ecology’s “Washington State Marine Water Quality during 1998 through 2000” (Newton et al., 2001): “Similar to our previous assessment (Newton et al., 1998a), four observations from the monitoring data indicate the possibility that DO conditions may be deteriorating in southern Hood Canal, that the spatial extent of low DO may be increasing northwards, and that eutrophication could be one of the processes contributing to this change. Impacts of other human activities (e.g., freshwater diversions) as well as natural cycles must also be fully evaluated.” Hypoxia more frequent. Northward increase in the horizontal extent of hypoxia. High chlorophyll a concentrations observed when nutrient limitation of phytoplankton growth expected. Nutrient-addition experiments show that primary productivity was increased as much as three-fold (Newton et al., 1995).

5. http://www.ecy.wa.gov/programs/eap/mar_wat/gradientofconcern.html Index of concern

6. What controls oxygen ? Seawater density stratification Seawater flushing/circulation Organic production and respiration Eutrophication/nutrient loading Organic loading Start with basics….

7. WARM COLD temperature salinitydeterminedensity FRESH SALTY + less dense more dense “thermocline” or “pycnocline”

8. WARM FRESH COLD SALTY “stratified” “mixed” Density structure can be two different ways:

9. Lo nutrientHi oxygen Phytoplankton present Hi nutrientLo oxygen No phytoplankton Organic (primary) production: Phytoplankton present No phytoplankton { CO 2 + H 2 O  C(H 2 O) + O 2 } sunlight nutrients “pycnocline” Respiration Photosynthesis

10. WELL-MIXED OXYGEN HIGH OXYGEN LOW OXYGEN “stratified” “mixed” Oxygen structure can be two different ways:

11. So why sub-surface low oxygen ? Light + nutrients  algae Algae accumulate and eventually settle to seabed Organic material decomposition requires oxygen

12. Lo nutrientHi oxygen Hi nutrientLo oxygen Which process dominates ? Phytoplankton present No phytoplankton { CO 2 + H 2 O  C(H 2 O) + O 2 } Photosynthesis Respiration P R. R O2O2

13. So why sub-surface low oxygen ? Light + nutrients  algae Algae accumulate and eventually settle to seabed Organic material decomposition requires oxygen If water is stable, oxygen consumed at depth If water is mixed/flushed, surface oxygen replenishes the deep oxygen concentration

14. Hood Canal attributes Strong stratification – distinct layers maintained with different character (the deep waters with low oxygen don’t get mixed up) High productivity – high organic load (that will be respired away during decomposition) Slow circulation – long residence time (the bulk of the waters are “old”; lots of respiration has occurred w/o PS or air contact)

15. Dense (colder, salty) ocean water Intermediate (warming, freshening) water Dense (colder, salty) ocean water Light (warmer, fresher) canal/river water Hood looks like this:

16. Dense (cold, salty) ocean water Intermediate (warming, freshening) water Dense (cold, salty) ocean water Light (warmer, fresher) canal/river water NEW MEDIUM OLDEST NEW Compare residence times or “age” of waters

17. Low-ish O 2 during upwelling; higher O 2 else Lowest O2, isolated and old water with respiration only Lower O2, respiration, no air contact O2 rich, Photosynthesis and air contact LOW LOWEST HIGH And what about the oxygen ?

18. Warner et al., 2001 Apr Jun Aug Sep Oct Dec Apr Jun Aug Dec Nov Sep Apr Jun Oxygen In collaboration with UW and PRISM we have learned oxygen dynamics with finer detail.

19. Hood Canal Geology Strong Stratification High Productivity Slow Circulation Understanding the underlying factors

20. Annual mean DO averaged over the bottom half of the water column S. Hood is different than other Puget Sound locales: WA Ecology-PSAMP data; Newton (APL-UW) analysis

21. Lo nutrientHi oxygen Phytoplankton present Hi nutrientLo oxygen No phytoplankton { CO 2 + H 2 O  C(H 2 O) + O 2 } How do humans affect this?? Lo oxygen can get lower !!! * sunlight nutrients Add “new” nutrients from human activity: stormwater, agriculture, fertilized lawns, sewers, septic tanks, animals, etc. Respiration Photosynthesis

22. Lo nutrientHi oxygen Phytoplankton present Hi nutrientLo oxygen No phytoplankton { CO 2 + H 2 O  C(H 2 O) + O 2 } Add “new” nutrients from human activity: stormwater, agriculture, fertilized lawns, sewers, septic tanks, animals, etc. How do humans affect this?? Lo oxygen can get lower !!! * sunlight nutrients Respiration Photosynthesis

23. Hi carbonHi oxygen Hi carbonLo oxygen { CO 2 + H 2 O  C(H 2 O) + O 2 } Add carbon load: carcasses, yard wastes, failing septic tanks, etc. How do humans affect this?? Lo oxygen can get lower !!! * sunlight nutrients Respiration Photosynthesis

24. What controls oxygen ? WHAT SELECTS FOR LOW OXYGEN? Stratification  STRONG Organic production and respiration  HIGH Flushing/circulation  SLOW Nutrient or carbon loading  OCCURING

25. What controls oxygen ? WHAT SELECTS FOR LOW OXYGEN? Stratification Organic production and respiration Flushing/circulation Nutrient or carbon loading

26. What controls oxygen ? WHAT SELECTS FOR LOW OXYGEN? Stratification  STRONG Organic production and respiration  HIGH Flushing/circulation  SLOW Nutrient or carbon loading  OCCURING

27. Hood Canal attributes: Stratification  STRONG Organic production and respiration  HIGH Flushing/circulation  SLOW Nutrient or carbon loading  OCCURING

28. How do we know what we know? 3 primary monitoring efforts

29. Core station Rotational station Washington State Department of Ecology Marine Waters Monitoring Program A component of the Puget Sound Ambient Monitoring Program 1.Monthly 2.4 stations 3.Core since 1975 4.Depth profile 5.Conventional WQ variables 6.Data access via web 7.State funded

30. University of Washington Puget Sound Regional Synthesis Model (PRISM) A University Initiative Fund sponsored program 1.2x per year 2.11 stations 3.Since 1998 4.Depth profile 5.Conventional WQ variables 6.Data viewing via web 7.UW funded

31. HCDOP Citizen Monitoring: 50+ volunteers Managed by: HCSEG Direct support from: UW Ecology PSAT USGS A volunteer effort 1.Weekly 2.4-7 stations 3.Since 8-15-03 4.3 depths 5.Oxygen 6.Data viewing via web 7.Primarily donated, 50+ volunteers

32. Ecology-PSAMP Monitoring Data South Hood Canal - Sisters Point – HCB004 UW Historic Data (Collias et al., 1974) North Hood Canal - Bangor – HCB006/8 Black=no data White=DO>5 mg/L Yellow=DO>5 and >3 mg/L Red=DO<3 mg/L Newton (APL-UW) analysis

33. Southern Hood Canal (DB to GB) Warner: PRISM & UW Collias data PRISM station transect for inventory:

34. Southern Hood Canal (DB to GB) Warner (UW) analysis of PRISM & UW Collias data Average Dissolved Oxygen Measurements – 1950s - 2004

35. 2003 Low DO was found higher in water column Another very sunny summer 50,000 Shiner perch fish kill in June Very low DO (anoxia) develops Substantial biota death observed by divers Another fish closure by WDFW in September Very large fish kill in October HCDOP forms: work with ~20 entities to do what is possible now and draft study plan for future Developed a website HCDOP Citizen Monitoring begins

36. HCDOP Citizen Monitoring Program

37. Example Citizen Monitoring data on the web:

38. Citizen Monitoring Time-series Hannafious and Rose (HCSEG) analysis

39. Sept. 2nd - Small Fish KillSept. 25h - Biota Stress / No Kill Hannafious and Rose (HCSEG) analysis

40. Most wolfeels were out of their dens, which is uncommon. Many were observed in water depth of less than 20 feet. This live spot prawn is a very unusual occurrence in shallow waters during the day. Many spot prawn are observed in shallow water during the low dissolved oxygen event and many dead prawns were also observed. Sightings of fish kills on Hood Canal, October 8-10, 2003 Dead copper rockfish were encountered mostly in waters between 5 and 40 feet in depth. An astounding 80 copper rockfish were in this dense school in water depths of less than 20 feet. Blackeyed gobies were found dead in a mat of decomposing material. WDFW observations W. Palsson

41. What could cause lower oxygen in Hood Canal ? Stronger stratification – distinct layers maintained with different character –Less mixing Higher productivity – high organic load –More nutrients, light, stable environment Slower circulation – long residence time –Less density driven circulation

42. * * * * * Change ocean input: O 2, density Change river input: flushing, stratification Change light availability: more sun Change organic biomass/prod’n: better growing conditions, dumping Change nutrient availability: septics, forest, dumping

43. What is the role of the ocean? There is no offshore oxygen time-series data from WA coast But do have data from JEMS (Joint Effort to Monitor the Strait) in the Strait of Juan de Fuca

44. Joint Effort to Monitor the Strait (JEMS) JEMS Partners: WA Dept. Ecology UW PRISM Friday Harbor Labs Sea-Doc Society King County NOAA JEMS line JEMS

45. fresher, warmer water from Puget Sound and Georgia Basin flowing out colder, salty water from Pacific Ocean flowing in North Canada South U.S.A. Flow in Strait of Juan de Fuca: Thomson, 1994

46. 10 6 4 2 8 Oxygen, mg/L D - 99D - 00D - 02D - 03D - 01 Is it coming from the ocean input of low oxygen? JEMS No evidence found JEMS data; Newton (UW-APL) analysis

47. JEMS Density at 50 m 200020041998 2002 Lower Admiralty Inlet Ecology-PSAMP 140 m 80 m Density at Strait Juan de Fuca Incoming ocean water Deep PS basin water But what about density? Newton (UW-APL) analysis

48. Potlatch Station Staircase Station What is role of the river input? …timing of freshwater input into the lower portion of Hood Canal USGS river stations

49. Years with higher Skokomish River discharge to Hood Canal appear to be somewhat correlated with years with lower deep oxygen concentrations. Potlatch River Station USGS data; Newton (UW-APL) analysis

50. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 024681012 Calendar month Monthly mean flow (ft3 s-1) 1940's 1950's 1960's 1970's 1980's 1990's 2000's See 600% higher flows during summer in 2000's than 1950-80’s Skokomish River mean monthly flow at Potlatch station USGS data; Newton (UW-APL) analysis

51. What about eutrophication? Nutrient addition causes substantially more primary production Newton et al., 1995

52. 4625 3225 3412 2900 2360 1983 2340 2186 1500 ~3000 ~2000 n=19 n=5 x 80 n=30 n=8 Primary Production (mg C m -2 d -1 ) >1000-2000 >2000-3000 >3000-4000 >4000-5000 Newton et al., 2000 Hood has high production:

53. 32 28 13 10 15 9 4 11 15 % increase in integrated prod’n 5-15 >15-25 >25-35 Newton et al., 2000 Nutrient sensitivity

54. Stormwater Impacts Hydraulic and hydrologic modifications Individual landscape practices Agriculture wastes and practices Aquatic habitat alterations Commercial forest practices Changes in aquatic biodiversity Land-use development standards Solid waste management Marine and boat waste Human sewage Point sources Commercial fishing practices A Look at Factors Contributing to Nutrient Inputs

55. What we know Hood Canal is exhibiting during 2003-04 the lowest oxygen concentrations on record. Hood Canal, especially in south, has been showing a gradual increase in severity, persistence, and extent of low oxygen. There are likely both human and natural processes involved. Which are most influential needs to be quantified.

56. Hypotheses on possible causes for the lower oxygen concentrations in Hood Canal: Changes in production or input of organic matter, due to naturally better growth conditions such as increased sunlight or other climate factors; Changes in production or input of organic matter, due to naturally better growth conditions such as increased nutrient availability; Changes in production or input of organic matter, due to human-caused loading of nutrients or organic material; Changes in ocean properties, such as seawater density that affects flushing of the Canal’s waters, oxygen concentration, or nutrients in the incoming ocean water; Changes in river input or timing from natural causes (e.g., drought) or from human actions (e.g., diversion) that affect both flushing and mixing in the Canal. Changes in weather conditions, such as wind direction and speed, which affect the flushing and/or oxygen concentration distribution.

57. Information need What is responsible for the low oxygen and what could fix it ?? –Need QUANTITATIVE modeling that is calibrated and verified with ADEQUATE data to run various scenarios in order to answer this question

58. HCDOP-IAM Strategy: Optimize monitoring: marine & fresh water; biota Evaluate nutrient loading to canal; all sources Better constrain flushing estimates Evaluate climate & ocean effects on water properties Understand biota sensitivities Use computer modeling to mimic HC and then run “what-if” scenarios Evaluate potential corrective actions

59. HCDOP-IAM Study Development Late 2002: Briefed Congressman Norm Dicks on problem and need for study 2003: Developed plans: –Phase 1: do now with current resources –Phase 2: scientific study plan developed and submitted with budget to Dicks 2004: Dicks secured $1.4M funds to UW-APL and $350K to USGS Early 2005: Scientific study to commence

60. Hood Canal Dissolved Oxygen Program Coordinating Group Structure:

61. Hood Canal Dissolved Oxygen Program Coordinating Group TribesCounties Local Groups StateHCSEG USACE Collaborating Partners:

62. UW Applied Physics Lab UW Oceanography USGS NOAA Fisheries USFWS Navy UWC Keyport HCSEG Skokomish Tribe LHCWIC Port Gamble S’Klallam Tribe USACE WA Ecology WDFW WA DNR NWIFC WA DOH PSAT UW-WA Sea Grant Mason County Kitsap County Jefferson County Mason CD Kitsap CD Jefferson CD HCCC Battelle UW-PRISM Planning Participants: Hood Canal Dissolved Oxygen Program

63. HCDOP-IAM Science Plan Program Administration Marine Water Monitoring Utilize profiling moorings and nearshore transects to measure circulation and water quality Fresh Water Flow & Nutrient Loading Monitor flow and water quality in rivers, streams, groundwater and map associated land use Marine Life Studies Assess DO effect on biota and biota effect on DO Modeling and Analysis Develop and verify computer models of marine and terrestrial system, run scenarios and corrective action analysis Rapid Response & Diver Program Respond to fish kills and algal blooms, maintain diver observation records

64. Program Administration “To be co-managed by UW-APL and HCSEG. Provide resources to support program oversight and administration, coordination of science activities among various partner organizations, and interaction of HCDOP-IAM with other efforts regarding Hood Canal.” * * text from October 2003 Hood Canal Low Dissolved Oxygen white paper by Newton and Hager, as presented at HCDOP-IAM meeting July 28 2004 Task 1:

65. Marine Water Monitoring Utilize profiling moorings and nearshore transects to measure circulation and water quality “Establish permanent mooring buoys to obtain continuous marine water measurements at 5 locations in Hood Canal, to document oxygen and other water properties with appropriate temporal (including nighttime) and spatial resolution to allow for model operation and for assessing mechanisms of variability.” Task 2:

67. Freshwater Flow and Loading Monitor flow and water quality in rivers, streams, groundwater and map associated land use “Establish the source, quantity, and timing of nutrient inputs and freshwater flow into Hood Canal including rivers, streams, groundwater, storm drains, septic systems, lawns, and agriculture. Data to be collected by participating groups using Ecology supported protocols and analysis (QAPP development) so that data will support use in potential TMDL integration.” Task 3:

68. Marine Life Studies Assess DO effect on biota and biota effect on DO “Establish how various fish, shellfish, and other sea life respond to low oxygen concentrations, for both chronic and episodic exposure. Evaluate the historic and future marine life balance, evaluate differences with current marine life and recommend whether these changes may be partially responsible for low oxygen. ” Task 4:

69. Modeling and Analysis Develop and verify computer models of marine and terrestrial system, run scenarios and corrective action analysis “Develop and verify detailed analytical models that represent the hydrodynamic and bio-chemical processes of the marine and watershed, including nutrient inputs in sufficient detail to identify the processes that define the dissolved oxygen concentrations throughout Hood Canal. Conduct studies with the verified model to establish future levels of dissolved oxygen with various corrective action concepts, as well as climate change, and land development changes. Review the analytical model information and the results of marine life studies and develop potential corrective actions. Study the effect of these actions using the analytical model and verify efficacy.” Task 5:

70. Rapid Response and Diver Program Respond to fish kills and algal blooms, maintain diver observation records “Expand the diver observation plan and provide for rapid response to fish kills and other events. ” Task 7:

71. Hood Canal Low Oxygen Complex issue Many contributing factors possible Scientific understanding critical Focused, collaborative effort Though HC most sensitive, other Puget Sound inlets/bays have sensitivity Understanding Hood Canal essential