1. NCEP Update: Review of Progress in Operational Weather, Climate and Ocean Forecasts “Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Prediction Services Begin” Louis W. Uccellini Director, NCEP University of Maryland November 2, 2006

2. 2 Overview Define NCEP “Seamless Suite” of forecast products: climate/weather linkage Recent Advances –Seasonal to Interannual/Climate Forecast System –Ocean Prediction/HYCOM –“Medium range” Days 4-7/North American Ensemble Forecast System –Days1-3: Winter Weather Desk/Short-Range Ensemble Forecast System –Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation Performance Metrics Future –Community Models –Multi-model Ensembles New building –NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction (Maryland)

3. 3 Define NCEP

4. 4 Research, Development and Technology Infusion Respond & Feedback The Path to NOAA’s Seamless Suite of Products and Forecast Services IBM Supercomputer at Gaithersburg, MD Computer Center Feedback Distribute Local Offices Local Offices Central Guidance Central Guidance Process Observe Products & Forecast Services To Serve Diverse Customer Base e.g., National Association of State Energy Officials, Emergency Managers, Water Resource Agencies, … NCEP

5. 5 The Environmental Forecast Process Observations Analysis Model Forecast Post-processed Model Data Forecaster User (public, industry…) Numerical Forecast System Data Assimilation

6. 6 NCEP Supports the NOAA Seamless Suite of Climate Weather and Ocean Products Space Environment Center Aviation Weather Center NCEP Central Operations Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center Tropical Prediction Center Vision: Striving to be America’s first choice, first alert and preferred partner for climate, weather and ocean prediction services. Organization: Central component of NOAA National Weather Service Total FTE: 430 161 Contractors/47 Visitors Mission: NCEP delivers analyses, guidance, forecasts and warnings for weather, ocean, climate, water, land surface and space weather to the nation and the world. NCEP provides science-based products and services through collaboration with partners and users to protect life and property, enhance the nation’s economy and support the nation’s growing need for environmental information. Storm Prediction Center

7. 7 Civil Service Positions –430 civil servant positions –Average 32 hires/year at all levels –2-4 entry-level hires/year Contract Positions –Average 140 contractors/year (over last 4 years) –Currently have 161 contractors –Approximately 28 contractor vacancies/year Student Programs –Average number of student interns - 6 (SCEP/STEP) http://www.weather.gov/eeo/StudentResearchOpportunities.htm) –16 Summer hires in 2006 through various programs (http://epp.noaa.gov/, http://www.oesd.noaa.gov/Hollings_info.html )http://epp.noaa.gov/http://www.oesd.noaa.gov/Hollings_info.html NCEP Employment Summary

8. 8 What Does NCEP Do? ?Model Development, Implementation and Applications for Global and Regional Weather, Climate, Oceans and now Space Weather ?International and National Partnerships in Ensemble Forecasts ?Data Assimilation including the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation ?Super Computer, Workstation and Network Operations ?Transition Test Beds Being Developed throughout NCEP “From the Sun to the Sea” Solar Monitoring, Warnings and Forecasts Climate Forecasts: Weekly to Seasonal to Interannual El Nino – La Nina Forecast Weather Forecasts to Day 7 Hurricanes, Severe Weather, Snowstorms, Fire Weather Aviation (Turbulence, Icing) High Seas Forecasts and Warnings

9. 9 Service – Science Linkage with the Outside Community EMCWRF Developmental Test Center, Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation CPCClimate Test Bed TPCJoint Hurricane Test Bed HPCHydrometeorological Test Bed* SPCHazardous Weather Test Bed with NSSL SECSolar Test Bed AWCFAA Aviation Test Bed with NCAR RAP* OPClinked with EMC’s Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch * Under development

10. 10 Seamless Suite of Forecast Products Climate-Weather Linkage

11. 11 Climate/Weather Linkage Week 2 Hazards Assessment ForecastUncertaintyForecastUncertainty Minutes Hours Days 1 Week 2 Week Months Seasons Years NOAA Seamless Suite of Forecast Products Spanning Climate and Weather CPC TransportationTransportation Forecast Lead Time Warnings & Alert Coordination Watches Forecasts Threats Assessments Guidance Outlook Protection of Life & Property Space Operation RecreationRecreation EcosystemEcosystem State/Local Planning EnvironmentEnvironment Flood Mitigation & Navigation AgricultureAgriculture Reservoir Control EnergyEnergy CommerceCommerce Benefits HydropowerHydropower Fire Weather HealthHealth TPCOPC HPC SECAWCSPC Service Center Perspective Winter Weather Desk Days 1-3 Tropical Storms to Day 5 Severe Weather to Day 3 NDFD, Days 4 -7 6-10 Day Forecast

12. 12 Climate/Weather Linkage ForecastUncertaintyForecastUncertainty Minutes Hours Days 1 Week 2 Week Months Seasons Years NOAA Seamless Suite of Forecast Products Spanning Climate and Weather North American Ensemble Forecast System Climate Forecast System TransportationTransportation Forecast Lead Time Warnings & Alert Coordination Watches Forecasts Threats Assessments Guidance Outlook Protection of Life & Property Space Operation RecreationRecreation EcosystemEcosystem State/Local Planning EnvironmentEnvironment Flood Mitigation & Navigation AgricultureAgriculture Reservoir Control EnergyEnergy CommerceCommerce Benefits HydropowerHydropower Fire Weather HealthHealth Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Ocean Model Hurricane Model Global Forecast System North American Forecast Rapid Update Cycle for Aviation Dispersion Models for DHS

13. 13 GFS CFS GFDL SREF NAM – WRF NMM NOAH Land Surface Model Dispersion Air Quality 2007 NCEP Production Suite Atmospheric Model Dependencies Forecas t Global Data Assimilation WRF-NMM WRF-ARW ETA RSM L D A S Sev Wx WRF-NMM WRF-ARW NAEFS NDASNDAS Rapid Update Cycle Ensemble Hurricane Global Climate Regional MOM3 HYCOM Ocean

14. 14 Computing Capability Commissioned/Operational IBM Supercomputer in Gaithersburg, MD (June 6, 2003) Primary Weather $13.9 M Primary Climate $5.3 M Backup $7.2 M Total: $26.4 M Receives Over 210 Million Global Observations Daily Sustained Computational Speed: 1.485 Trillion Calculations/Sec Generates More Than 5.7 Million Model Fields Each Day Global Models (Weather, Ocean, Climate) Regional Models (Aviation, Severe Weather, Fire Weather) Hazards Models (Hurricane, Volcanic Ash, Dispersion) 3x upgrade scheduled for 2006 4 th Q delivery

15. 15 Recent Advances

16. 16 ForecastUncertaintyForecastUncertainty Minutes Hours Days 1 Week 2 Week Months Seasons Years NOAA Seamless Suite of Forecast Products Spanning Climate and Weather North American Ensemble Forecast System Climate Forecast System TransportationTransportation Forecast Lead Time Warnings & Alert Coordination Watches Forecasts Threats Assessments Guidance Outlook Protection of Life & Property Space Operation RecreationRecreation EcosystemEcosystem State/Local Planning EnvironmentEnvironment Flood Mitigation & Navigation AgricultureAgriculture Reservoir Control EnergyEnergy CommerceCommerce Benefits HydropowerHydropower Fire Weather HealthHealth Short-Range Ensemble Forecast HYCOM Ocean Model

17. 17 The NCEP coupled Climate Forecast System (implemented August 24, 2004) 1.Atmospheric component Global Forecast System 2003 (GFS03) T62 in horizontal; 64 layers in vertical Recent upgrades in model physics  Solar radiation (Hou, 1996)  cumulus convection (Hong and Pan, 1998)  gravity wave drag (Kim and Arakawa, 1995)  cloud water/ice (Zhao and Carr,1997) 2.Oceanic component GFDL MOM3 (Pacanowski and Griffies, 1998) 1/3°x1° in tropics; 1°x1° in extratropics; 40 layers Quasi-global domain (74°S to 64°N) Free surface 3.Coupled model Once-a-day coupling Sea ice extent taken as observed climatology 4.Calibrated on past 38 years

18. 18 Climate Forecast System Availability 7 day average centered on March 8 Real-time 2x daily, 9-month forecasts, monthly ensemble of 40-60 members. 15-member reforecasts per month (1981–2005) –Calibration –Skill estimates –Analog and statistical forecasts The website for real time data retrieval is at: ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/ST.opnl/MT.cfs_MR.fcst The climatological data is at: ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/ST.opnl/MT.cfs_MR.clim/ Complete documentation available at: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ssaha/cfs_data/cfs_data.pdf

19. 19

20. 20

21. 21 THE NOAA CLIMATE TEST BED Mission: Mission: To accelerate the transition of scientific advances from the climate research community to improved NOAA climate forecast products and services. Priorities: Improve Climate Forecast System Assess Multi-Model Ensemble Prediction System Fully Utilize Climate Reanalysis – An Ongoing Analysis of the Climate System Develop Climate Forecast Products for Decision Support http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ctb/

22. 22 Current Projects By Programmatic Theme: 1)NOAA/NCEP Climate Forecast System Improvements Ocean Component of the NCEP ENSO CFS (PI: McPhaden, PMEL) Improvement of the GODAS at NCEP (PI ’ s: Xue and Behringer, NCEP) Using Initial Tendency Errors to Reduce Systematic Errors (PI: Delsole, COLA) Development of Neural Network Emulations of Model Physics for CFS (PI: M. Fox-Rabinovitz, UMD) NCEP Component of the NOAA Core Project for GAPP (PI: K. Mitchell, NCEP) The NAME Climate Process Team (PI: J. Schemm, NCEP) 2)Multi-Model Ensemble Prediction System Infrastructure for Multi-model Ensembles at the NOAA CTB (PI ’ s: Leetmaa, GFDL; Lord, NCEP) Explore MME with international operational centers 3)Climate Reanalysis – An Ongoing Analysis of the Climate System Regional Climate Data Assimilation System (R-CDAS) / NAME Data Impact (PI: K. Mo, NCEP) 4)Climate Forecast Products for Decision Support Consolidation of Multi method Seasonal Forecasts at CPC (PI: van den Dool, NCEP) A Drought Monitoring and Early Warning System for the United States (PI: K. Mo, NCEP) Assess development work, upgrade the CFS in FY10 and improve CFS products. 5) Assess development work, upgrade the CFS in FY10 and improve CFS products.

23. 23 Ocean Prediction NCEP to provide “backbone” support for operational delivery of ocean model forecasts –In response to NOAA Science Advisory Board Report

24. 24 ForecastUncertaintyForecastUncertainty Minutes Hours Days 1 Week 2 Week Months Seasons Years NOAA Seamless Suite of Forecast Products Spanning Climate and Weather North American Ensemble Forecast System Climate Forecast System TransportationTransportation Forecast Lead Time Warnings & Alert Coordination Watches Forecasts Threats Assessments Guidance Outlook Protection of Life & Property Space Operation RecreationRecreation EcosystemEcosystem State/Local Planning EnvironmentEnvironment Flood Mitigation & Navigation AgricultureAgriculture Reservoir Control EnergyEnergy CommerceCommerce Benefits HydropowerHydropower Fire Weather HealthHealth Short-Range Ensemble Forecast HYCOM Ocean Model

25. 25 Satellite (AVHRR, JASON, QuikSCAT) In situ (ARGO, Buoys, Ships) OCEAN DATA ASSIMILATION RT-OFS-GODAE NOPP EMC CFS-GODAS NCO/ODA EMC NOPP-JPL (ECCO) OPNL OCEAN FORECASTS Climate Forecast SystemReal-Time Ocean Forecast System Data Cutoff CFS: 2 week data cutoff RTOFS: 24 hour data cutoff Shared history, coding, and data processing MOM-3  MOM-4  HOME HYCOM  HOME NASA-NOAA-DOD JCSDA AMSR, GOES, AIRS, JASON, WindSat, MODIS Advanced ODA Techniques Observations CLIMATE FORECAST OCEAN FORECAST http://cfs.ncep.noaa.gov/http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/ofs/

26. 26 Real-Time Ocean Prediction with HYCOM Goal: to develop and implement operational, high resolution ocean prediction systems for the Global Oceans and Basins NCEP Partners with University of Miami/RSMAS NRL Stennis, NRL Monterey, FNMOC NOAA PMEL, AOML Los Alamos National Laboratory Others (international, commercial) Hybrid isopycnal-sigma-pressure ocean model (called Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model – HYCOM) Implemented December 2005 Chesapeake Bay

27. 27 RT-OFSProducts http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/ofs/

28. 28 North American Ensemble Forecast System

29. 29 ForecastUncertaintyForecastUncertainty Minutes Hours Days 1 Week 2 Week Months Seasons Years NOAA Seamless Suite of Forecast Products Spanning Climate and Weather North American Ensemble Forecast System Climate Forecast System TransportationTransportation Forecast Lead Time Warnings & Alert Coordination Watches Forecasts Threats Assessments Guidance Outlook Protection of Life & Property Space Operation RecreationRecreation EcosystemEcosystem State/Local Planning EnvironmentEnvironment Flood Mitigation & Navigation AgricultureAgriculture Reservoir Control EnergyEnergy CommerceCommerce Benefits HydropowerHydropower Fire Weather HealthHealth Short-Range Ensemble Forecast HYCOM Ocean Model

30. 30 North American Ensemble Forecast System Combines global ensemble forecasts from Canada & USA –Now:CAN 40/day out to 16 days, US – 56/day out to 16 days –’07 – CAN 40/day out to 16 days, US – 80/day out to 16 days Generates products for –Intermediate users: forecasters at NCEP, WFOs, academia, media, private sector, … –Specialized users: hydrologic applications in all three countries –End users: forecasts for public distribution in US, Canada (MSC) and Mexico (NMSM) Future activities –Adding products (probabilistic in nature) –Incorporating ensemble data from other centers (e.g., FNMOC) –Unified evaluation/verification procedures International project to produce operational multi-center ensemble products After bias correction Raw ensemble Probabilistic skill extended 1-3 days

31. 31 NAEFS Products NAEFS basic product list –11 functionalities Ensemble mean, spread, probabilities, etc. –50 variables U,v,t,z,CAPE, precip type, etc. –7 domains Global, NH, NA, CONUS, SA, Caribbean, Africa Over 600 products requested by users (will be supplied via priority order) –Graphics Available on NAWIPS at NCEP Centers –Grids NAWIPS ftp://ftpprd.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/grns/prod NDGD in planning phase (Aug 07)

32. 32 Short-Range Ensemble Forecast System

33. 33 ForecastUncertaintyForecastUncertainty Minutes Hours Days 1 Week 2 Week Months Seasons Years NOAA Seamless Suite of Forecast Products Spanning Climate and Weather North American Ensemble Forecast System Climate Forecast System TransportationTransportation Forecast Lead Time Warnings & Alert Coordination Watches Forecasts Threats Assessments Guidance Outlook Protection of Life & Property Space Operation RecreationRecreation EcosystemEcosystem State/Local Planning EnvironmentEnvironment Flood Mitigation & Navigation AgricultureAgriculture Reservoir Control EnergyEnergy CommerceCommerce Benefits HydropowerHydropower Fire Weather HealthHealth Short-Range Ensemble Forecast HYCOM Ocean Model

34. 34 Short Range Ensemble Forecast ?21 members twice per day ?87 hrs from 9 and 21Z ?Resolution 32km/60 levels ?Mean and spread charts available for forecaster use ?Developing products on probability of snow and ice accumulation ?http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/SREF/SREF.html 0.01” snow

35. 35 SREF Upgrades FY2006 Added six members twice per day (WRF ARW & WRF NMM) (Dec ‘05) Run SREF 4 times per day (03, 09, 15 and 21 UTC) (June, 2006) Implement Grid Based Bias Correction Improve Probabilistic verification Develop spread information Add WRF BUFR Files Implement ensemble mean BUFR files

36. 36 Chance that truth is outside ensemble range RMS Error 21 member 15 member SREF Enhancement with 6 WRF-based Members

37. 37 New Impact Graphics from SREF Probability event will last more than 12, 24, 48 hrs Probability visibility will be reduced to 1/2, 1/4, or 1/8 mile in winter precip Probability winter precip rate will be more than 1, 2, or 3" per hr Probability road sensor will detect winter precip (relative to normal) “snow on road” Probability Blizzard Criteria will be met Probability Freezing Rain.01" or more will accumulate on any surface Probability NWS Winter Storm Warning criteria will be met (under construction) http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/impactgraphics/

38. 38 ?Time line: Sep 15 – April 1 ?Participants ?NCEP HPC ?Provide SREF based Winter Wx guidance ?Collaborate with WFOs (Chat Room Technology) ?WFOs ?All CONUS WFOs ?Use guidance from NCEP to produce coordinated Winter Storm Watches/Warnings ?Products: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml ?24 h probability (low, moderate, high) of meeting/exceeding 4”, 8”, 12” snow, 0.25” freezing rain (for day 1, 2, 3) ?72h Low tracks graphic and discussion NWS Winter Weather Desk

39. 39

40. 40 12Z, Feb 10, 2006 12Z, Feb 11, 2006 12Z, Feb 12, 200612Z, Feb 13, 2006 Daily Weather Map Web Site - http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dwm/dwm.shtml

41. 41

42. 42 ≥ 4 inches ≥ 8 inches ≥ 12 inches Day 2 Snow Accum Probability Valid 00Z Feb 12 - 00Z Feb 13

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44. 44

45. 45 Regional Stats ERWWE1 01-02’ WWE2 02-03’ WWE3 03-04’ WWD* 04-05’ WWD* 05-06’ # WFO823 ALL POD.89.90.92.91 FAR.33.30.32.30.35 CSI.62.65M.66.61 LT Warn1315182119 CRWWE1 01-02’ WWE2 02-03’ WWE3 03-04’ WWD 04-05’ WWD 05-06’ # WFONA833ALL PODNA.90.88.92.91 FARNA.40.45.32.38 CSINA.57.51.65.53 LT WarnNA13 17 WRWWE1 01-02’ WWE2 02-03’ WWE3 03-04’ WWD 04-05’ WWD 05-06’ # WFONA 10ALL PODNA.88.86 FARNA.27.30.36 CSINA.67.64.58 LT WarnNA 1416 SRWWE1 01-02’ WWE2 02-03’ WWE3 03-04’ WWD 04-05’ WWD* 05-06’ # WFONA 11ALL PODNA.92.90.85 FARNA.38.39.48 CSINA.59.57.48 LT WarnNA 9911 * Oct - Mar

46. 46 Five Order of Magnitude Increase in Satellite Data Over Next Ten Years Count (Millions) Daily Satellite & Radar Observation Count 2000199020102010-10%of obs 2002 100 M obs 2003-4 125 M obs Level 2 radar data 2 B 2005 210 M obs Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation

47. 47 JCSDA Mission and Vision Mission: Accelerate and improve the quantitative use of research and operational satellite data in weather and climate analysis and prediction models Near-term Vision: A weather and climate analysis and prediction community empowered to effectively assimilate increasing amounts of advanced satellite observations Long-term Vision: An environmental analysis and prediction community empowered to effectively use the integrated observations of the GEOSS – and be ready for NPOESS at “Day 1” after launch

48. 48 JCSDA Major Accomplishments Common assimilation infrastructure at NOAA and NASA Community radiative transfer model V2 released Common NOAA/NASA land data assimilation system Interfaces between JCSDA models and external researchers Operational Implementations Include: Snow/sea ice emissivity model – permits 300% increase in sounding data usage over high latitudes – improved forecasts MODIS winds, polar regions, - improved forecasts AIRS radiances – improved forecasts New generation, physically based SST analysis - Improved SST Preparation for advanced satellite data such as METOP (IASI/AMSU/MHS), DMSP (SSMIS), COSMIC GPS data, EOS AMSR-E, GOES-R Impact studies of POES MHS, EOS AIRS/MODIS, Windsat, DMSP SSMIS……. on NWP through EMC parallel experiments

49. 49 Figure 3(b). 500hPa Z Anomaly Correlations for the GFS with (Ops.+AIRS) and without (Ops.) AIRS data, Northern hemisphere, January 2004

50. 50 Impact of AIRS increased spatial data density/improved QC (Snow, SSI/eo/April 2005/nw)

51. 51 Performance Metrics -- Models --

52. 52 GFS Upgrade

53. 53

54. 54 20012002200320042005 Number of Hits (Millions) Popularity of NCEP Models Web Page Comms Upgrade 2006

55. 55 Performance Metrics -- Forecasters --

56. 56 HPC Forecasters Add Value Models provide basis for improvement Correlations Of HPC with: Eta: 0.99 GFS: 0.74 NGM: 0.85 (DOC GPRA goal)

57. 57

58. 58 Day 4 Gridded Temperature Forecast Max Temp Min Temp Valid November 6, 2006

59. 59 NHC Atlantic 72 hr Track Forecast Errors Advances Related To USWRP Major Upgrades in Global and Hurricane Numerical models

60. 60

61. In last 10 years, HPC forecasts have added 2 days of skill Day 7 Day 5 Day 3

62. 62 Future Community Models Multi-Model Ensembles

63. 63 Future Community models –Weather Research Forecast model Developmental Test Center (Boulder) –Outreach to academic community –Assessment of new model components Major implementation – replaced Eta in June 06 CMICMI NCAR ARW NCEP NMM Explicit Cores (e.g., Hurricane, Dispersion, Aviation)

64. 64 GFS CFS WRF SREF NAM - WRF NOAH Land Surface Model Dispersion Forecas t GGSIGGSI WRF-NMM WRF-ARW ETA RSM L D A S Sev Wx WRF-NMM WRF-ARW NAEFS RGSIRGSI Rapid Refresh WRF Ensemble Hurricane Global Climate Regional MOM3 HYCOM Ocean Model Suite of the Future (2007-2008) Chem WRF Air Quality

65. 65 Multi-Model Ensembles Issue In 5-10 years will all forecasts be based on multi-model ensemble approach? Climate Forecast System North American Ensemble Forecast System Short-Range Ensemble Forecast System Oceans Space Weather Answer(s) will have enormous implications for NCEP operational computer allocations

66. 66 Multi-Model Ensembles Enormous implications for NCEP links to the research community How do we link all the players? Operational centers NCAR/NASA/DOE/Universities How do we link data assimilation infrastructure (all data types)? Ensemble-based Kalman Filter 3D or 4D Var How do we factor into transition process? Research to Operations AND Operations to Research Many issues will influence NCEP’s participation in THORPEX (Zoltan Toth, focal point)

67. 67 NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction Defined requirements for 268,762 RSF Includes housing 850+ Federal employees, contractors, and visiting scientists 5 NCEP Centers NESDIS research and satellite services OAR Air Resources Laboratory Begin move to new facility September ’07; complete by Feb ’08 Space for 40 visitors Groundbreaking occurred for March 13, 2006

68. 68 NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction NORTH

69. 69 Summary NCEP spanning “Sun to the Sea”; many new programmatic areas (oceans, air quality, space weather…) Many science-service opportunities/challenges exist NCEP is uniquely positioned to handle transition issues from research to operations Actively engaged with the research community –Test beds –Experiments (NAME, THORPEX) –Other programs (USWRP, CLIVAR, …) Still consider NCEP to be an underutilized entity by the research community

70. 70 Appendix

71. 71 EMC NCO R&D Operations Delivery Criteria Transition from Research to Operations Requirements EMC NCEP’s Role in the Model Transition Process OPS Life cycle Support Service Centers NOAA Research Concept of Operations Service Centers Test Beds JCSDA CTB WRF DTC JHT User Observation System Launch List – Model Implementation Process Field Offices Effort EMC and NCO have critical roles in the transition from NOAA R&D to operations Other Agencies & International Forecast benefits, Efficiency, IT Compatibility, Sustainability

72. 72 R&D NCEPNCEP Operations User Community Transition from research to operations/ applications 1.Large “volume” of R&D, funded through AOs, Agency Labs… 2Smaller set of R&D products suitable for operations. 3.Systematic transition steps. 4.New products can serve diverse and expanding user community. 5.Delivery to diverse USER community Applying the “Funnel” to the Transition Process 1 2 3 4 NCEP is uniquely positioned to provide an operational infrastructure for the transition process 5

73. 73

74. 74

75. 75 Without skill mask CFS Seasonal Precip Forecast (mm/month)

76. 76 With skill mask If anomaly correlation between forecast and observed conditions over the 1982-2003 period is below 0.3, values are not shown CFS Seasonal Precip Forecast (mm/month)

77. 77 Without skill mask CFS Seasonal Temp Forecast (deg K)

78. 78 With skill mask If anomaly correlation between forecast and observed conditions over the 1982-2003 period is below 0.3, values are not shown CFS Seasonal Temp Forecast (deg K)

79. 79 GSI/GFS Impact studies: Preliminary Results (CHAMP) 2-month cycling at T62L64 There are some encouraging preliminary results. Before being able to assimilate the RO data in operations we need to: –Understand the differences between the assimilation of N and BA. Why in some cases the assimilation of N results in a larger improvement than the assimilation of BA and visa versa? –Understand the strengths and weaknesses of the GPS RO data and the model in weather analyses and forecasts. Why does the assimilation of N or BA degrade the forecasts in some cases? The sensitivity of the impact of GPS RO to model resolution, QC parameters and error characterization is under current study. The results of these experiments will accelerate the tuning for the assimilation of COSMIC data. Cucurull et al. 2006, submitted to MWR Control Refractivity Bending Angle

80. 80 The figures show the day-2 anomaly correlation scores for temperature at 300mb for the NH, Tropics and SH. Results for the control (COSM_CTL) and bending angle (COSM_BND) are indicated. Early results on the assimilation of COSMIC bending angles at NCEP show a good performance of the DA system. The same experiments could have assimilated observations of refractivity instead of bending angle. Results are encouraging and more data needs to be assimilated for further tuning and evaluation of the impact of the GPS RO in weather analyses and forecasts. Early Results: COSMIC

81. 81 Figure 2. The 500HPa Geopotential Anomaly Correlations versus forecast period for GFS forecasts using the operational data base without QuikSCAT data (Control) and using the operational database without QuikSCAT data but with WindSat data (WindSat) over the Southern Hemisphere.

82. 82