1. Fridolin Krausmann ISEE Conference: Ecological Sustainability and Human Well Being New Delhi, 15-18 December 2006 Historical Sustainability Research Out of the frying pan into the fire: Industrialization as a socio-ecological transition process Fridolin Krausmann (for internal use only – do not quote without permission of the author)

2. Fridolin Krausmann Transitions between socio-ecological regimes ? transition Hunters and gatherers AgrarianIndustrial Socio-ecological regimes Sustainable ? Postindustrial? Knowledge society? Source: Sieferle et al. 2006, modified

3. Fridolin Krausmann Primary energy use (per capita) United Kingdom Austria Japan

4. Fridolin Krausmann Share of biomass United Kingdom Austria Japan

5. Fridolin Krausmann Energy intensity (DEC/GDP)

6. Fridolin Krausmann Population density United Kingdom Austria Japan

7. Fridolin Krausmann Share of agricultural population United Kingdom Austria Japan

8. Fridolin Krausmann The solar energy system: From tapping flows to... Agricultural population Land use Photosynthesis Human labour Biomass Fossil energy Energy flows Non-agricultural population Production

9. Fridolin Krausmann The fossil fuel energy system (coal)....to exploiting stocks Agricultural population Land use Non-agricultural population Production Photosynthesis Fossils Human labour Biomass Fossil energy Energy flows

10. Fridolin Krausmann The fossil fuel energy system (coal)....to exploiting stocks Agricultural population Land use Non-agricultural population Production Photosynthesis Fossils Human labour Biomass Fossil energy Energy flows

11. Fridolin Krausmann The fossil fuel energy system (oil, gas)....to exploiting stocks Agricultural population Land use Non-agricultural population Production Photosynthesis Fossils Human labour Biomass Fossil energy Energy flows

12. Fridolin Krausmann The transformation of agriculture: From energy source…. Photosynthesis 1 GJ work* etc. 4-7 GJ food Agriculture *primary energy equivalent of work

13. Fridolin Krausmann Photosynthesis 0,1 GJ work* 25-30 GJ food 30-35 GJ fossils Agriculture The transformation of agriculture: ….to energy sink *primary energy equivalent of work

14. Fridolin Krausmann The metabolic transition The hypothesis of the metabolic transition is derived from historical evidence and claims that industrialization is related to fundamental and characteristic changes in the structure and size of social metabolism: –The transformation of the energy system: from solar based and land related (food, feed, wood) to fossil fuel based; from tapping flows to exploiting stocks –Changing relation of land use and energy: agriculture changes from an „energy source“ to a sink of energy –Absolute growth of population, material and energy use –Relative (per capita) growth of material and energy use –Characteristic metabolic profiles of agrarian and industrial socioecological regimes

15. Fridolin Krausmann Die Global Metabolic Transition: agrarian and industrial metabolic profiles AgrarianIndustrialFaktor Energy (per capita)[GJ/cap]30-70150-4003-5 Material (per capita)[t/cap]3-515-253-5 Population density[cap/km²]<40100-3003-10 Energy (per area)[GJ/ha]20-30200-60010-30 Material (per area)[t/ha]1-220-5010-30 Biomass (Share of)[%]95-10010-300,1-0,3

16. Fridolin Krausmann Back to the solar energysystem? Energy supply Austria 2000 Energy supply UK 2000 195 Maximum Energy yield under solar constraints 450

17. Fridolin Krausmann Die Global Metabolic Transition: global metabolic patterns 2000 AgrarianIndustrialLDDC Energy (per capita)[GJ/cap]30-70150-400376363 Material (per capita)[t/cap]515-253,56,7 Population density[cap/km²]20-40100-300337272 Energy (per area)[GJ/ha]20-30200-6001246 Material (per area)[t/ha]1-220-501,14,8 Biomass (share of)[%]95-10010-309250

18. Fridolin Krausmann Die Global Metabolic Transition: global metabolic patterns 2000 AgrarianIndustrialLDIndia Energy (per capita)[GJ/cap]30-70150-40037 Material (per capita)[t/cap]515-253,55 Population density[cap/km²]20-40100-30033307 Energy (per area)[GJ/ha]20-30200-60012115 Material (per area)[t/ha]1-220-501,117 Biomass (share of)[%]95-10010-309264

19. Fridolin Krausmann Die Global Metabolic Transition: global metabolic patterns 2000 AgrarianIndustrialLDDC Energy use / cap[GJ/cap]50-70150-400376363 Material use / cap[t/cap]515-253,56,7 Pop. density[cap/km²]30-40100-300337272 Energy use / area[GJ/ha]20-30200-6001246 Material use / area[t/ha]1-220-501,14,8 Biomass[%]95-10010-309250 Are there alternatives to the historical path of the metabolic transition? Is a sustainable industrial metabolic profile possible?

20. Fridolin Krausmann Thank you for your attention! http://www.iff.ac.at/socec/staff/krausmann_en.php fridolin.krausmann@uni-klu.ac.at http://www.iff.ac.at/socec/staff/krausmann_en.php fridolin.krausmann@uni-klu.ac.at