1. Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration Association Adelaide, 16 April 2007 The Future Environment for Energy Business Jesse H. Ausubel Program for the Human Environment The Rockefeller University, New York City http://phe.rockefeller.edu Acknowledgements:C. Marchetti, N. Victor, P. Waggoner, E. Yantovski

2. A lake of liquid methane surrounded by mountains of solid ice on Titan. Source: Huygens probe, ESA.

3. Carbon Atoms per Hydrogen Atom in Hydrocarbons Evolution from Wood to Methane Decarbonizes Source: Ausubel, 2007 (water removed; charcoal pure C)

4. Source: Ausubel 2007, after Ausubel, 1996 and Marchetti, 1985 C:H Decarbonization Evolution of C:H Ratio in Global Fuel Mix Wood C:H = 10:1 Coal C:H = 2:1 Oil C:H = 1:2 Methane C:H = 1:4Methane Economy Hydrogen Economy NonFossil Hydrogen When viewed as market substitution, decarbonization is a 300-year process for H to rise from 10% to 90% market share, midpoint 1935

5. Data sources: IIASA, BP (1965-2001), CDIAC http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/trends/emis/em_cont.htm Decarbonization of Global Primary Energy Viewed as Declining Carbon Intensity of All Primary Energy Carbon/ Energy kg /GJ

6. Source: N. Victor & J. Ausubel, 2003 Fuel Mass per Energy of Hydrocarbons economies of scale favor fuels suited to higher power density and thus decarbonization Fuel/ Energy kg/GJ

7. Earth Luminosity 1996 Upward light flux measured at the top of the atmosphere, low-gain version of the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program Operational Linescan System (DMSP/OLS) data, Elvidge et al.,US National Geophysical Data Center. J. Ausubel and N. Victor, 2006.

8. Luminosity if all were as luminous as Americans J. Ausubel and N. Victor, 2006.

9. Increases in light flux if everyone outside USA lit like USA (1996-7) Or latent electricity demand, blue to white to red color ramp Source: Nadja Makarova Victor & Jesse Ausubel, 2004

10. US Passenger Travel Per Capita Per Day (Range) Miles Year Cars ( + Buses + Motorcycles ) Walking Trains Horses Air Total (average per decade) Sources: US Historical Abstracts; US Statistical Abstracts; A. Gruebler 1989; US Bureau of Transportation Statistics, 2006 1880190019201940196019802000 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 J. Ausubel, P. Meyer, N. Victor, 2007

11. A spigot in the lower left might draw off the carbon dioxide. Source: Ausubel, 2004 Methane-fueled Zero Emission Power Plant (ZEPP) Temperature up to 1,500 C, pressure to 400 atm

12. Bankside Power Station, London Opened for power generation in 1953, became Tate Gallery in 2000 Comparably powerful plant built today could fit in 1/10 th the space “Footprint” covers 3.5 hectares 100m tall Source: Ausubel 2004

13. Like computers that comprise the Internet, power plants become more powerful AND SMALLER US Ballistic Research Lab computer, mid 1950s Dell laptop, 2004 Tennessee Valley Authority coal plant (date unknown) Delivery of General Electric 480 MW natural gas turbine, 2000 J. Ausubel & T. Barrett, 2004

14. Source: Olav Bolland http://folk.ntnu.no/obolland

15. A lake of liquid methane surrounded by mountains of solid ice on Titan. Source: Huygens probe, ESA.

16. Shelf break: Continental margins the methane frontier?

17. Gulf of Mexico Census of Marine Life Expedition to Deep Slope 2006 Expedition to Deep Slope 2006 Ian MacDonald Bruce Strickrott AquaPix, Bob Carney Ian MacDonald First systematic exploration of hydrocarbon seep communities deeper than 1000m Source: ChEss

18. Storegga, Norway, 120 km offshore, 1000 m deep Ormen Lange gas field, without conventional offshore platforms Production expected October 2007

19. Census of Marine Life Arctic Jellies photographers: K. Raskoff, R. Hopcroft

20. Garbage collected in 4000 m depth in Ierapetra Basin south of Crete Source: CEDAMAR

21. There are no ocean deserts! Beautiful life abounds everywhere. Conserve it.

22. USA: Hydrogen production, 1971- 2003 semi-log scale Source: N. M. Victor and J.H. Ausubel, 2006 Year

23. Falling hydrogen price versus hydrogen production, USA, 1971-2003 1 10 10,000100,0001,000,000 Annual production, millions of cubic feet 2000 US$/10e3 cubic feet J. Ausubel and N. Victor, 2005

24. Source: N. Victor & J. Ausubel, 2005

25. fuel mass per energy including nuclear fuels economies of scale favor fuels suited to higher power density, thus decarbonization & thus finally nuclear sources 10,000 X more compact than hydrocarbons Uranium Source: N. Victor & J. Ausubel, 2003 100 10 -1 10 -2 10 -3 10 -4 10 -5 10 1 Fuel/ Energy kg/GJ To produce with solar cells the energy generated in 1 liter of core of a nuclear reactor, one needs ~ 1 hectare (10,000 square meters) of solar cells!

26. Renewable Energy Production Intensities in watts per square meter, a story of weakness Hydro: –Hoover Dam0.0014 –Hydro: All US dams0.0049 –Hydro: Ontario0.012 Biomass: –ethanol from corn (net)0.047 –New England forest0.12 –Ocean biomass0.6 –Corn (whole plant)0.75 –Sugar cane (intensively farmed)3.7 Wind1.2 Solar thermal (actual)3.2 Sources: Ausubel, Hayden

27. Spatial scale: Nuclear and Wind California Coast 10% Wind Equivalent 5 Miles Diablo Canyon 2200 MW Power Plant Source: P. Grant

28. Endless sea of methane photographed from Titan’s surface by probe Huygens, 14 January 2005 (ESA). See also “The Lakes of Titan,” 4 January 2007, Nature magazine, Stofan et al. 2017: Australian Methane Production and Exploration Association Text and figures posted at http://phe.rockefeller.edu