1. Independents vs. Partisans
Do political independents really exist?

2. Independents vs. Partisans
Party ID results from early socialization
But, are parties less relevent today?
fewer say they are D or R
seen as dealignment of party system

3. Independents Why care? Two views
they determine result of many elections
votes most moveable
is there dealignment, room for third party?
Two views
less informed, less interested
swayed by TV ads, personality, etc.
well informed “critical citizens”
don’t need party cue anymore

4. Independents A behavioral phenomena
A socially desirable survey response

5. Partisans vs. Independents
Generally speaking, do you consider yourself a Dem., Rep., or independent
[If D or r]: Would you call yourself a strong [D or R]?
[If Ind]: Would you say you think of yourself as closer to the Ds or Rs

6. Measurement What are we measuring here?
3 qs are used to make “7 point scale” of PID
Strong R said “R” and strong
Weak R said “R” and weak
Ind, leans R said “Ind” and lean R
Ind (pure) said “Ind” and don’t lean
Ind, leans D said “Ind” and lean D
Weak D said “D” and weak
Strong D said “D” and strong

7. Measurement How much weigh should we put in the first Q?
“Generally speaking...?”
How much weight should we put into how people respond to the follow up Qs?
“would you say you think of yourself as closer...”

8. Partisans vs. Independents
If we use “closer”, there are few independent
As of 2004:
Strong D 17
Weak D 16
Ind D D
Ind I
Ind R R
Weak R 12
Strong R 16

9. Partisanship trends

11. Partisans vs. Independents
When we lump independent‘leaners’ in w/ partisans, not much change in D vs. R distribution since 1984
Some oscillation, Dem gains since 2000
What about those independents?
which way do they break?

12. Independents vs. Partisans

13. Partisans vs. Independents
Trends in US Party ID;

14. Partisans vs. Independents
What do these responses mean?
Party Identification strongest predictor of voting
learned early, social transmision
rarely changes over lifetime
more people socialized to be “Ind”, or to say “Ind”
see F&Z figures

15. Partisans vs. Independents
Funnel of Causality
social
background
Party
attachments
campaign
events
vote
Values
Groups
Time (years & years)

16. Partisans vs. Independents
identify w/ party early
identification stronger over lifetime
partisans more interested in politics
Today, Party ID an even stronger predictor of voting than ever
90%+ of strong ID vote w/ party
hence, elections somewhat predictable

17. Partisans vs. Independents
Independents’ actual behavior
fastest growing group of voters ‘leaners’
ID as “independent” but say they are “closer” to one particular party
Leaners may be more ‘partisan’ than weak partisans
Vote party if forced to chose btwn D and R
Highly interested

18. Partisans v Independents
Leaners
Critical citizens?
Pure independents
nothing there, apolitical?

19. Partisans vs. Independents
Independents attitudes
but, independents less happy w/ choices than weak or strong partisans
more willing to defect if offered a 3rd choice
Important aspect of dealignment
more independents, who are more volitile

20. Partisans vs. Independents
Does a party represent you reasonably well

21. Partisans vs. Independents

22. Partisans vs. Independents
Anderson (+ others) 1980
26% of Ind Dems, 14% of Ind, 12% of weak R
Perot 1992
23% of Ind Dems, 36% of Ind, 26% of Ind R, 25% of weak Rs
Nader 2000
8% of Ind Dems, 6% of Ind, 6% Ind Reps
0% from weak/strong partisans

23. Independents
Interested?
Care who wins: