1. Deaths from smoking in all developed countries

2. Deaths from smoking in all developed countries Particular emphasis is given to the number of deaths in middle age (defined as ages 35 to 69) Available on www.deathsfromsmoking.net This presentation provides estimates of the number of deaths caused by smoking in all developed countries

3. Source of data: “Mortality from Smoking in Developed Countries, 1950–2000” Uses WHO mortality data for lung cancer and for other diseases, and UN population data www.deathsfromsmoking.net Updated edition of a 1994 book, authored by an international team of scientists: –Richard Peto, Professor of Medical Statistics, University of Oxford –Alan Lopez, Professor of Medical Statistics, University of Queensland –Jillian Boreham, Senior Research Fellow, University of Oxford –Michael Thun, Chief of Epidemiology, American Cancer Society

4. Deaths from smoking, 1950 to 2000 About 62% (39 million) of them were still in middle age when they died This was about one in five of all the deaths in middle age during this period (39 million out of the 184 million deaths at ages 35-69) www.deathsfromsmoking.net All developed countries About 63 million people died from smoking during this 50-year period in all developed countries

5. Annual deaths from smoking About 1 million die in middle age from smoking Many of those killed in middle age would have lived on for 10, 20, 30 or more good years About 22 years of life are lost, on average, by those killed in middle age by smoking www.deathsfromsmoking.net All developed countries, year 2000 Smoking kills about 1.9 million people a year in all developed countries

6. Smoking causes about twice as many deaths as all non-medical causes put together www.deathsfromsmoking.net All developed countries, year 2000 983,076* non-medical Murder / assault Falls SuicideDrowning Road accidentsPoisoning Plane crashesFires Train crashesFloods / storms Accidents at work Other natural disasters Accidents at homeOther accidents *in year 2000 1.9 million smoking

7. Smoking kills 1.9 million people a year, from many different diseases www.deathsfromsmoking.net All developed countries, year 2000 *includes 490,000 (85%) of the 575,441 lung cancer deaths 700,000 cancer* 650,000 vascular (heart disease, stroke and other diseases of the arteries and veins) 350,000 respiratory 200,000 other

8. 2,700,000 total cancer deaths About one in four of all cancer deaths is due to smoking www.deathsfromsmoking.net All developed countries, year 2000 700,000 (26%) from smoking 1,500,000 male 550,000 (37%) from smoking 1,200,000 female 150,000 (12%) from smoking

9. Male deaths in middle age from smoking This pattern is seen first in middle age, then in old age The next three slides concentrate on male deaths in middle age www.deathsfromsmoking.net The main pattern of increase and, eventually, decrease in premature deaths from smoking is at a more advanced stage among men than among women

10. About one in three of all deaths in middle-aged men is due to smoking* www.deathsfromsmoking.net All developed countries, year 2000 *800,000 (30%) of the 2.7 million deaths at ages 35-69

11. Of 100 men aged 35 years … www.deathsfromsmoking.net All developed countries, year 2000 *risks at year 2000 death rates for ages 35-69 35 die in middle age* 35% 11 of these 35 deaths are from smoking 11

12. Male death in middle age: changing hazards* www.deathsfromsmoking.net All developed countries, 1955-2000 *risks at period-specific death rates for ages 35-69 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 42% All causes 40% 41% 40% 39% 37% 36% 38% 35% 8 Smoking 10 11 12 13 12 13 11

13. Summary for the whole population Smoking kills about 1.9 million men and women every year About 1 million die in middle age from smoking Smoking causes about twice as many deaths as all non-medical causes put together About one in four of all cancer deaths is due to smoking www.deathsfromsmoking.net All developed countries, year 2000 In all developed countries:

14. Messages for the individual smoker Those killed in middle age lose many years Stopping smoking works –Even in early middle age, those who stop (before they have lung cancer or some other fatal disease) avoid most of their risk of being killed by tobacco –Stopping before middle age works even better www.deathsfromsmoking.net The risk is big: about half are killed

15. Deaths from smoking: an electronic resource www.deathsfromsmoking.net Published by International Union Against Cancer (UICC), Geneva: Switzerland, 2006 Funded by Clinical Trial Service Unit & Epidemiological Studies Unit (CTSU), University of Oxford International Union Against Cancer (UICC) Fogarty International Center, US NIH UK Medical Research Council Cancer Research UK Project team Richard Peto, Judith Watt, Jillian Boreham Project managementSinéad Jones Advice and support Steve Woodward, Konrad Jamrozik, Lesley Walker, Trish Cotter Design bwa-design.co.uk